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 Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental 

Which top 2 will gross more?
June 16-18 15%  15%  [ 2 ]
July 21-23 85%  85%  [ 11 ]
Total votes : 13

 Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental 
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Post Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Which double bill weekend will have a higher gross for the top 2 films?

I’m feeling the July 21st weekend myself.


Mon May 29, 2023 2:44 pm
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
I think it depends on how high Flash goes.

I'm kind of unsure how well Oppenheimer will open. Do not see over $45m. Elemental I feel like will be low 30s.

As of now thinking:

Flash - 115, Elemental - 33
Barbie - 103, Oppenheimer - 37

148 vs 140... lol


Mon May 29, 2023 3:09 pm
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Feeling B+O will beat handily. Spiderverse will just take over. B+O has more room and pent up interest for breakouts.


Last edited by O on Mon May 29, 2023 3:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Mon May 29, 2023 3:14 pm
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
I'll pick against the superhero/Pixar combo

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Mon May 29, 2023 3:14 pm
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Obviously the weekend of 16 June when The Flash opens. This is a no-brainer. The Flash won't even need Elemental's help. ;)

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Mon May 29, 2023 3:20 pm
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Currents predictions:

Flash - $125M / $375M
Elemental - $30M / $85M

Barbie - $88M / $210M
Oppenheimer - $52M / $160M

So yeah even if Elemental flops, Flash should comfortably win this. I don't buy the low presales argument. It'll pick up once Spiderverse hype winds down.


Mon May 29, 2023 4:02 pm
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
I am also in the B+O camp. O's potential will be known by end of this week when presales start. Nolan has a built in fanbase plus this movie has a strong ensemble cast.

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Mon May 29, 2023 5:08 pm
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Oppenheimer should come out at the end of the year and ride that award season wave as a prestige pic for older folks that goes on for weeks and weeks. It doesn't say "summer" to me.

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Mon May 29, 2023 6:02 pm
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Easy Barbie+Oppenheimer. Flash doesn't seem to be breaking out and Elemental is just dead weight after Cannes.


Tue May 30, 2023 6:09 am
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Flash 90m / Elemental 40m
Barbie 85m / Oppenheimer 50m

130m vs 135m

Barbie :wub2: or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb :D wins

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Tue May 30, 2023 7:33 am
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Probably The Flash/Elemental weekend wins it. But it will be close and fascinating to watch.

Flash 105m / Elemental 38m = $143m
Barbie 90m / Oppenheimer 48m = $138m

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Tue May 30, 2023 8:11 am
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
On the one hand even if these end up being "close" in terms of box office grosses, actual success from a return perspective feels so much more leaning in B+O's court and likely in the expectations end. $200M budget vs $400M (not including marketing costs) so still sort of bad that these two weekends are comparable when their profits are going to be so astronomically different.

That doesn't also include awards attention and buzz. Could see B+O both get awards attention if they are good with screenplays, acting, picture, effects, production, etc. Both could very well be at 5+ nods each if they deliver.

Opplyheimer $100M
Barbie $100M

Elemental $200M
The Flash $200M


Tue May 30, 2023 1:11 pm
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
I never really liked the angle of profitability among movie fans. It is completely besides the point. Who cares if a studio makes a return on a film. I care about how in demand a certain film is, and quickly that demand is sought (i.e. grosses). This idea of profitability always gets brought up when a film someone likes or wants to do well isn't having the expected success in terms of revenue. That's its only use.

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Tue May 30, 2023 1:37 pm
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Well if we get $200M from Barbie vs a $200M for Elemental, we're much more likely to get more Barbie movies than we are more Elementals. Blair Witch making $140M ($60K budget) vs Dinosaur ($128M budget) making nearly $140M in the last 90s early 00s has consequences for future runs and releases. We got a flood of found footage movie ripoffs and microbudget horror and a stalling of Disney animation movies. The Pixar acquisition to probably was more compelling with Disney's own animation struggles and a lack of highly profitable animated films around that time compared to Pixar.

I still like to think about it because we're able to get long term supply trends based on an idea of what level of payback a film will have. Mario $1.3B+ along with ancillary profits outside just box office = Lots more video game movies and alters video game adaption predictions on what may be possible for other IP from a box office prediction standpoint.

Everyone has their own preference but I like the impact runs can have on cultural zeitgeist, business models, long term trends of at least having insight on profitability too. The Flash overperforming = More superhero movies? We're already there. Barbie overperforming or an adult drama where adults aren't necessarily coming in floods to theaters overperforming changes the box office and industry calculus so still find it worth thinking about.


Tue May 30, 2023 2:00 pm
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Algren wrote:
I never really liked the angle of profitability among movie fans. It is completely besides the point. Who cares if a studio makes a return on a film. I care about how in demand a certain film is, and quickly that demand is sought (i.e. grosses). This idea of profitability always gets brought up when a film someone likes or wants to do well isn't having the expected success in terms of revenue. That's its only use.


I also hate from some fans that if a movie doesn't make a billion dollars than it's a failure :roll:

the MCU has created some dumbass boxoffice fan bitches

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Tue May 30, 2023 3:18 pm
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
O wrote:
I still like to think about it because we're able to get long term supply trends based on an idea of what level of payback a film will have.

Everyone has their own preference but I like the impact runs can have on cultural zeitgeist, business models, long term trends of at least having insight on profitability too.

:thumbsup:

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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Flash/Elemental easily. Flash should be good for 85M+, Elemental for 30M+

Barbie I honestly don't see where these crazy 100M+ predictions are coming from. I think an opening over 50M would be a huge huge win. Oppenheimer looks like Nolan's least widely appealing film since The Prestige so I think a 30M+ opening would be a big win.

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Tue May 30, 2023 10:14 pm
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Is this for OW or Total domestic?

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Tue May 30, 2023 10:15 pm
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
MadGez wrote:
Is this for OW or Total domestic?


Opening weekend


Tue May 30, 2023 10:18 pm
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
zwackerm wrote:
MadGez wrote:
Is this for OW or Total domestic?


Opening weekend


Ok good. That was what I did. Total gross would be different IMO.

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Tue May 30, 2023 11:11 pm
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Algren wrote:
I never really liked the angle of profitability among movie fans. It is completely besides the point. Who cares if a studio makes a return on a film. I care about how in demand a certain film is, and quickly that demand is sought (i.e. grosses). This idea of profitability always gets brought up when a film someone likes or wants to do well isn't having the expected success in terms of revenue. That's its only use.

Profitability is kind of what determines what films we even get to begin with. If avatar2 grossed 1.1b it would've been the second biggest film of the year...but all its sequels would've been canned regardless.


Wed May 31, 2023 2:55 am
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
JustLurking wrote:
Algren wrote:
I never really liked the angle of profitability among movie fans. It is completely besides the point. Who cares if a studio makes a return on a film. I care about how in demand a certain film is, and quickly that demand is sought (i.e. grosses). This idea of profitability always gets brought up when a film someone likes or wants to do well isn't having the expected success in terms of revenue. That's its only use.

Profitability is kind of what determines what films we even get to begin with. If avatar2 grossed 1.1b it would've been the second biggest film of the year...but all its sequels would've been canned regardless.


Sure. I'm not disregarding its importance to the industry. But to us, who are not part of that industry, it doesn't matter at all. Surely we should just care which films are the most popular, and the popularity metric with regards to box office is gross.

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Wed May 31, 2023 11:01 am
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
More going to go down the philosophy route, but...

Many of us are not part of that industry, and box office doesn't matter at all to us really in our day to day so don't box office gross and profit not matter to us non-industry folk in the same way?

You could argue box office matters since it impacts the lines and crowds we have in a theater for a movie we see (popularity), but doesn't profitability impact the price we pay (our expenditure)?

We choose out of interest (for those outside the industry) to follow box office trends. Is the movie profitability piece (out of interest) that different?

Not arguing one way or the other but hypothetically, box office shouldn't matter to us either since it doesn't for 99.9% of people outside the industry.


Wed May 31, 2023 12:56 pm
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
O wrote:
More going to go down the philosophy route, but...

Many of us are not part of that industry, and box office doesn't matter at all to us really in our day to day so don't box office gross and profit not matter to us non-industry folk in the same way?



I'd argue; no, because movie lovers love movies and want them to do well and be loved more so than we care what dividend Jim Jennings, CEO and shareholder of Magnus Pictures LLC receives at the annual earnings call.

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Wed May 31, 2023 1:04 pm
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Post Re: Barbie+Oppenheimer vs Flash+Elemental
Algren wrote:
JustLurking wrote:
Algren wrote:
I never really liked the angle of profitability among movie fans. It is completely besides the point. Who cares if a studio makes a return on a film. I care about how in demand a certain film is, and quickly that demand is sought (i.e. grosses). This idea of profitability always gets brought up when a film someone likes or wants to do well isn't having the expected success in terms of revenue. That's its only use.

Profitability is kind of what determines what films we even get to begin with. If avatar2 grossed 1.1b it would've been the second biggest film of the year...but all its sequels would've been canned regardless.


Sure. I'm not disregarding its importance to the industry. But to us, who are not part of that industry, it doesn't matter at all. Surely we should just care which films are the most popular, and the popularity metric with regards to box office is gross.

If anything it is the other way around. Box office makes absolutely no difference to any of us beyond having some fun with the numbers. Profitability does, as that determines what films we get.

Fans don't have any need to know anything other than if a film did well for the studio as that makes it either a hit or a flop, and that decides whether they will get more film like it (sequels or just in spirit).


Wed May 31, 2023 3:18 pm
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