Haunted Mansion - 22 (why did I go with 40 on the monthly predictions lol...)
Talk to Me - 7 (apparantly this is strong, 96% on RT so maybe it'll do better?)

Barbie - -48%
Oppenheimer - -45%

Thinking the party will continue to have them both drop under 50% but wouldn't be surprised with drops in the 50s

Haunted Mansion - $18M

Barbie -60%

Oppenheimer -50%

Haunted Mansion - $13 million

Oppenheimer -46%
Barbie -63%

Barbie is definitely not dropping 60%. its still playing capacity constrained with huge number of sellouts. There is nothing of note next week and Barbie is definitely not dependent on PLF either. I am expecting low 50% drop for it.

Oppenheimer will have a spectacular hold. Already presales for next weekend are really strong as most Imax/70mm are sold out most of the week and beyond. I am predicting a crazy hold for sure. May be high 30s drop.

Barbie is losing Dolby screens to Haunted Mansion (lol) in my area so maybe it will drop harder than 50%

Wouldn't it be something to see Mansion pull a POTC theme park turned movie run out of the blue.

Then I'd feel especially embarrassed for IJ, Flash, etc. Not going to happen but nothing this summer seems to be going according to plan.

Haunted Mansion - $20m

Barbie -55%
Oppenheimer -45%

Both Barbie and Oppenheimer will hold well. They are zeitgeist movies. They have to be seen to be part of the conversation, similar to Mario earlier this year.

yes. I am hearing conversations on fintwit where folks are seeing Oppenheimer after Maverick last year !!! It came up in most podcasts I listen on markets where movies rarely are talked about in regards to personal interest. Mario did come up a lot in regards to how it will impact Nintendo the company. Barbie is coming up for its impact on Mattel. Oppenheimer is all about folks interesting in seeing it.

https://twitter.com/hmeisler/status/1683143773784612870

Haunted Mansion to open #4 behind Sound of Freedom,

Early predictions:

1 Barbie $97.8M -33%
2 Oppenheimer $69.7M -15%
3 Sound of Freedom $16.5M -18%
4 Haunted Mansion $15.9M
5 Mission Impossible $11.3M -42%
6 Talk To Me $9.4M
7 Elemental $4.8M -17%
8 Indiana Jones $4.3M -36%
9 Insidious $3.2M -51%
10 Spider-verse $2.0 -29%

$234.3M 3day tally

Lol this would be crazy. Hope it happens!

Sunday seems to indicate great drops to come but maybe weekdays will be super strong which will cause weekend drop to be higher but we'll see.

Barbie had $15 million from Dolby Cinema on opening weekend, so that's potentially $7 million in the 2nd weekend that won't be there. Still going to have a strong hold. Demand seems very strong for it. Phenomenal Sunday number with a drop below 10% from Saturday.

Revising my predictions to

$16M Haunted Mansion

Barbie -41%

Oppenheimer -36%


It seems like the number of showings didn't come remotely close to satisfying demand for the two films and as a result they might see very light drops for big blockbuster openings.

Haunted Mansion will get steamrolled but should be saved from single digits by black audiences coming out.

Agreed. I’ve seen FB and Insta posts from local cinemas advising “we are adding extra shows” etc for this week. Plenty of demand still to satiate.

rooting for your prediction to come true

Disney seems to be trying to get ahead of families going into The Haunted Mansion expecting a family-friendly film. It's PG-13, but I've seen several ads/commercials this week very clearly stating some content no suitable for children / parent guidance advised, with it even written on the screen.

You hear this at the end of a lot of ads, yeah, but it's quite prevalent here.

Barbie would barely be impacted by losing Dolby. It still will have some PLF and crush it in regular screens. Oppenheimer will sellout all Imax again this weekend. There the drop will be in single digits. Question is how regular screens will hold. opening weekend in big markets were spectacular everywhere.

While I wont go as far as O I still think both movies will see better than norm hold. I would say B (low 40s) and O(low to mid 30s) drop. One should not forget both movies had great thursday previews as well.

Barbie 90m
Oppenheimer 52m
Haunted Mansion 22m
Sound of Freedom 18m
MI 12m

38% drop would be $100m... do not see that happening but wow

Intriguing, what’s the rationale? It made $23.16 on Sunday so next weekend it will do more than 3x last Sunday numbers?

Meant $69.7M (3day only for Oppenheimer) with a 3day drop off of 15.5%

$234.3M tally is for all movies as a cumulative box office tally. Included it to show how strong next weekend will continue to be for the market.

Haunted Mansion is DOA with anything less than fantastic reviews. Probably like $12M.

Barbenheimer will probably drop around 30-35%.

I mean how does Oppenheimer achieve such a spectacular drop? Even Inception had 32% drop.

A few reasons behind the crazy drop for Oppenheimer I expect:

-IMAX driving 26% of the box office gross and still not able to meet a lot of the demand. Even if weekdays help, it will be more beneficial to support Barbie's supply constraints because not everyone has 3 hours mid week to watch it.
-Will be the must see movie next weekend as many chose Barbie first. Especially since it skewed 62% male expect Oppenheimer to get more female audiences in future weekends.
-3 hour run time so more will take their time to see it. Nolan's longest movie ever vs Interstellar (169 min), TDKR (164 min), TDK (152 min), Tenet (150 min), and Inception (148 min) vs Oppenheimer's 180 min.
-Zeitgeist movie so will pull in moviegoers that may have waited to otherwise see it. A watercooler movie that people need to see to be in the know.
-Well reviewed so could lead to repeats.
-OW skewed heavily to younger audiences 18-24 (33%). 18-34 (66%). Older audiences don't always go OW but there's a huge audience yet to watch it that sees Nolan movies.
-Light competition from holdovers and new openers with movies potentially under <$16M other than Barbie.