World of KJ
https://worldofkj.com/forum/

June 2-4 Predictions
https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=90015		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri May 26, 2023 11:18 am ]
Post subject:  June 2-4 Predictions
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 130m
The Boogeyman 14m

Little Mermaid -59%
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Fri May 26, 2023 1:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
Monster opening incoming. I'll go with $144M for now but wouldn't be surprised if it beats Incredibles 2.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri May 26, 2023 1:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
I'm gonna go with $125m. Think over $130m sounds a little absurd but who knows.
Author:  Algren [ Fri May 26, 2023 2:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
I cannot even comprehend this movie making those numbers. I'm going with an opening of $75 million come what may.
Author:  Shack [ Fri May 26, 2023 2:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
Feels like the recipe for a crazy opening. I might just take the highest prediction in the contest and go one million over it.
Author:  Algren [ Fri May 26, 2023 2:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
I feel The Boogeyman will do over $20 million though. I'm seeing a surprise summer horror hit there. Of course, I could be wrong and probably will be. Recently I seem to going against what everyone else is thinking for forthcoming releases - it's not intentional, I just cannot see these yuge numbers for these mediocre properties. I think I've set myself up for a fall, but I have to go with my gut.
Author:  Rev [ Fri May 26, 2023 5:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
Across the Spider-Verse 150m
The Boogeyman 20m

Little Mermaid -62% :(
Author:  MadGez [ Sat May 27, 2023 8:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
Across the Spiderverse - $104m
Boogeyman -$18m

I’ve heard good things about Boogeyman but haven’t felt much buzz. Spider-verse i think could do anything from $80m to $120m so will go midway.
Author:  Jonathan [ Sat May 27, 2023 9:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
Across the Spider-Verse - $130 million
The Boogeyman - $19 million

The Little Mermaid -57%
Fast X -55%
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 -41%

Spider-Verse looking well-positioned for a big-time breakout, although I am hoping The Boogeyman can over-perform and join Smile and Evil Dead Rise in the "promoted from streaming to theatrical" breakout club. Probably won't open as high as those did since Spider-Verse is the event of the weekend, but it could end up being the biggest counter-programming to a $100M+ opener in a long while - as long it gets above $15M it would be the biggest since A Bad Moms Christmas ($16.8M) openede against Thor Ragnarok. If it opens above that it will be the biggest since Captain Underpants ($23.9M) opening against Wonder Woman.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun May 28, 2023 4:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
The Boogeyman feels very much like Lights Out to me. That opened to close to 22 Million. I could see a similar opening for this. I'll be surprised if it goes under 20 Million.

I am kind of shocked to even see 100+ Million predictions for Spider-verse. I thought it would do maybe 80 Million or so.
Author:  Barrabás [ Sun May 28, 2023 8:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
Spider-Verse: $150M
Author:  lilmac [ Mon May 29, 2023 11:23 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Spide ... e-3D-(2018)#tab=box-office

You can really see how it took the first film 2-3 weeks to catch the WOM wave. Great run.
Author:  O [ Mon May 29, 2023 1:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
I'm sensing a steep drop for Mermaid but week 3 will be the big indicator for long term tally. Spider-verse is just going to be so big and has huge appeal to overlapping demos that it's going to be hard not to see a big plunge. Would not be shocked by over 65% along with the impact of the inflated Sunday.

Not sure yet where I'm going to put Spiderverse. Feels like a big moment of the year type OW. For now I'll give it $155M.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Wed May 31, 2023 1:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
As expected Spiderverse just had a tremendous presales day today. Stronger tuesday than Thor last year. With reviews coming out tomorrow, I am expecting uber strong finish. If I have to guess previews could hit 20m with great walkups. OW should be 130m+. If I have to guess 140m. With a rave my high end of 150m is in play.
Author:  Corpse [ Wed May 31, 2023 1:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
These numbers sound so crazy. The first one became one of the most well-liked animated films ever, and left an impact on the animated film industry with other studios (Dreamworks and Disney) copying its style, so a large increase should be expected just based on that alone. But an opening of 4-5x greater, and a total presumably up to 2-3x higher, just sounds like too much.

I'd absolutely love to see it. Loved the first one, expect this one to be amazing too, so the higher it goes the better. I'll be a little sceptic until the first reported numbers come in though.

Like... I think something like $90m/$250m would be incredible, and it would be, but that might be considered disappointing in a way.
Author:  O [ Wed May 31, 2023 1:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
That would be a stunning OW. It won't quite match Austin Powers 2 which outgrossed the original's total gross from its OW but a $150M OW for a film 5 years ago that did $190,241,310 total is literally just as impressive if not more due to the scale of the original's gross already (79% of total gross)

Blade Runner 2049 outgrosses the original film in its OW but that had nearly 40 years of inflation.

Also can't understate the iconicness of its soundtrack to contribute to its zeitgeist original. Sunflower has 2B views on Youtube.

Another comparison is Batman Begins to TDK. Of course impacted by Heath's passing but Batman Begins (and the original Batman) were the leggiest superhero movies ever opening to under $50M. #3 for Spider-verse so it was a very low starting point for the original and even if not live action, the Spider-man cannon has had huge box office tally potential with its IP.

Feel of all cases, it's probably most identical to a Terminator / T2 type situation here where the first one had unique and dazzling features we hadn't seen before and created a massive sequel event ($38,371,200 total for T1 and $31,765,506 OW for T2 for 82.8% retention). Feels like Spider-verse could be following most closely will match that with 70-80% if the OW pans out to $140M+. Though T2's budget went up to $102M from the original's under $10M due to the rise of Cameron while Spiderverse 2 is only $10M more than the original.

Is there anything else that's had an OW almost do the total gross of it's predecessor? Bad Boys 2 also opened to close to 2/3 of the original's total and was one other that came to mind.
Author:  Jonathan [ Wed May 31, 2023 8:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
O wrote:
Another comparison is Batman Begins to TDK. Of course impacted by Heath's passing but Batman Begins (and the original Batman) were the leggiest superhero movies ever opening to under $50M. #3 for Spider-verse so it was a very low starting point for the original and even if not live action, the Spider-man cannon has had huge box office tally potential with its IP.


I was gonna say that I think Batman Begins to TDK seems like the best comparison point for the Spider-Verse movies, as they are both arguably the two most popular superheroes in America, but BB and Into the Spider-Verse had abnormally low openings for the franchises - BB because it was coming off a long break from the most despised Batman movie ever, and Spider-Verse because it was an animated film that on the surface looked inessential. But both had crazy good WOM and have had a long life on home media, and were exactly the kind of movies where people really wanted a sequel so they could return to that specific world.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Wed May 31, 2023 11:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
Crazy strong reviews will help with final surge for sure. This is primed for breakout.
Author:  Rev [ Wed May 31, 2023 12:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
$15m Thursday preview opening incoming ;)
Author:  zwackerm [ Wed May 31, 2023 12:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
Hopefully women and girls can keep The Little Mermaid from diving off a cliff.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Wed May 31, 2023 12:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
Rev wrote:
$15m Thursday preview opening incoming ;)


Image
Author:  Algren [ Wed May 31, 2023 1:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Hopefully women and girls can keep The Little Mermaid from diving off a cliff.


Don't let gays and whipped husbands off the hook so easily! ;)
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Wed May 31, 2023 3:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
Summer weekdays are here! Guardians only -28% week to week. It's too bad we have stupid Transformers opening next week. If Guardians could hold on to all those screens until July I think it could pass the second one. Alas, it will probably be on D+ by that time instead.
Author:  zwackerm [ Wed May 31, 2023 3:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Summer weekdays are here! Guardians only -28% week to week. It's too bad we have stupid Transformers opening next week. If Guardians could hold on to all those screens until July I think it could pass the second one. Alas, it will probably be on D+ by that time instead.


It’ll be in wide release at least till Indiana Jones, Imo
Author:  Rev [ Wed May 31, 2023 3:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: June 2-4 Predictions
Keyser Söze wrote:
Rev wrote:
$15m Thursday preview opening incoming ;)


Image


:funny: u right, u right

let's go with $25m
Page 1 of 2 All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]
Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group
http://www.phpbb.com/