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 May 26-29 Predictions 

Will The Little Mermaid open over 90m 3day?
Yes 50%  50%  [ 3 ]
No 50%  50%  [ 3 ]
Total votes : 6

 May 26-29 Predictions 
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Post May 26-29 Predictions
The Little Mermaid 89/114
About My Father 3/4
Kandahar 4/5
The Machine 1/2
You Hurt My Feelings sub 1m

Fast X -62%
Guardians- 37%


Fri May 19, 2023 7:57 am
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
That would be truly awful for About My Father. I see a lot more potential than that. Kandahar, too.

I reckon Kandahar will get $6-$9 million, and Father will do low teens.

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Fri May 19, 2023 8:04 am
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
I agree with Zwackerm's 3 day prediction for next weekend. But 25m monday seem slightly high if it hits 89m 3 day. I would say 111m 4 days. But this movie could be a huge variable depending on how the final week presales goes. I will update if trend is stronger.

I have no idea how the other openers will go but they are all small releases with one small screen in most plexes. So not much hope.

Fast X WOM seem ok. with long weekend it may be able to hold better than otherwise. May be high 50s. Guardians will have a very good hold despite losing screens. I would agree with Zwack's prediction above.

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Fri May 19, 2023 9:57 am
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
Yeah I'm thinking Little Mermaid does like 85m 3-day, hoping it breaks out more though.


Fri May 19, 2023 12:13 pm
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
Let us see how reviews are on Monday. I am expecting meh reviews based on early reactions. Its another retelling the same story. But having a black lead might help with reviews a bit.

Another point I saw being brought up at Deadline is lack of late night talk shows are impacting the final push. That was easy marketing for movies releasing as key stakeholders are all over these shows across all networks. If TLM and Spiderverse have soft finish, I would say that is a factor.

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Fri May 19, 2023 12:30 pm
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
This is a nice weekend for smaller films. I'll have the option to see The Starling Girl, The Wrath of Becky, and You Hurt My Feelings at the same theater. I'll definitely catch Little Mermaid sometime too.


Fri May 19, 2023 5:44 pm
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
I doubt either would have broken out anyway, their fanbases will probably just wait for Netflix, but it is wild to me that Bert Kreischer and Sebastian Menascalco are releasing movies on the same weekend.


Fri May 19, 2023 5:48 pm
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
I doubt either would have broken out anyway, their fanbases will probably just wait for Netflix, but it is wild to me that Bert Kreischer and Sebastian Menascalco are releasing movies on the same weekend.


Yeah, considering the dearth of comedies in the marketplace one of them really could have moved to earlier in the year or later in the summer, seems pretty silly to put them on the same weekend, especially up against a big opener. The Machine seems better positioned though, as it's also being sold as an action-y film, and it actually has some tickets sold already in my area, while About My Father has basically nothing.


Sat May 20, 2023 1:30 pm
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
So looks like reviews will have no impact on this as the movie is mid as expected


Mon May 22, 2023 12:24 pm
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
Does seem that the tide of buzz is going positively in Mermaid's favor at this stage. How much of a breakout we see is still TBD but a remarkable turnaround from 6 months ago.


Mon May 22, 2023 2:13 pm
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
Reviews are better than expected but they are still not glowing or anything. 57 MC is still mid level.

Presales are solid but not spectacular. At this point I am seeing 100m 3 day barring meh walk ups.

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Mon May 22, 2023 2:21 pm
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
I think Disney will take that

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Mon May 22, 2023 2:24 pm
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
Great for McCarthy. She's been cited as a highlight and feel like she was getting pigeon holed a bit into certain roles post Bridesmaids so feels like this could be a career highlight for her.

After having 6 $100M+ movies over a 5 year period this is going to be her first $100M+ movie since Ghostbusters in 2016.


Mon May 22, 2023 2:36 pm
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
Was Monday a holiday? Tuesday increases were very weak


Wed May 24, 2023 8:58 pm
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Was Monday a holiday? Tuesday increases were very weak


Victoria day in Canada. That is why Monday BO was boosted.

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Wed May 24, 2023 11:32 pm
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
For now seeing 11m previews for Mermaid and 130-135m over 4 days. Friday sales makes me think its going to do great. But let us see how walkups go on friday. That plus WOM(Postrak/Cinemascore) will confirm its OW. I am expecting A cinemascore plus very high Postrak score for its box office to hit above numbers.

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Thu May 25, 2023 12:38 am
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
If Mermaid bumps up from there and gets to $139.8M+, would pass Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End for #2 biggest OW ever for Memorial Weekend behind TGM.


Thu May 25, 2023 1:48 am
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
125m/150m :wub2: #MermaidLOVE

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Thu May 25, 2023 7:42 am
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
I hope it can do well.


Thu May 25, 2023 8:16 am
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
I hope it can do well.


really? :glare: I thought you didn't like "WOKE" stuff

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Thu May 25, 2023 8:41 am
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
Rev wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
I hope it can do well.


really? :glare: I thought you didn't like "WOKE" stuff


I like when the box office does well in general.

I don’t like “woke” stuff, but this is far from Disney’s most woke movie they’ve released lately


Thu May 25, 2023 9:13 am
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
It still looks like 11m previews including early shows yesterday. Let us see how things go tomorrow.

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Fri May 26, 2023 12:07 am
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
Keyser Söze wrote:
It still looks like 11m previews including early shows yesterday. Let us see how things go tomorrow.


anything over $10m is great :D

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Fri May 26, 2023 7:42 am
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
10.3m previews including 850K on wednesday. it did do weaker than what I thought. So smaller markets seriously under performed.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/early-week ... 25m-4-day/

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Fri May 26, 2023 11:20 am
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Post Re: May 26-29 Predictions
Ouch! big drop for Fast X :(

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Sat May 27, 2023 1:34 am
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