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 April 21-23 Predictions 

Which will open higher?
Beau is Afraid 50%  50%  [ 2 ]
The Covenant 50%  50%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 4

 April 21-23 Predictions 
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Post April 21-23 Predictions
Evil Dead Rise 19m
The Covenant 6m
Beau is Afraid 6m
Somewhere in Queens 1.5m


Fri Apr 14, 2023 9:07 am
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Begging Naked
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Post Re: April 21-23 Predictions
Do we have a theater count for Beau next weekend? A surprising number of multiplexes near me aren't getting it until April 28, so it seems like they might doing a semi-wide start before expanding further next weekend.


Fri Apr 14, 2023 9:36 am
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Dont Mess with the Gez
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Post Re: April 21-23 Predictions
The Covenant is getting 3000+ Theatres so you’d think it can get to $10m but buzz has been low.

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Fri Apr 14, 2023 7:59 pm
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Post Re: April 21-23 Predictions
The Covenant is getting 3000+ Theatres so you’d think it can get to $10m but buzz has been low.

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Fri Apr 14, 2023 7:59 pm
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Post Re: April 21-23 Predictions
Is How to Blow Up a Pipeline expanding further at all anytime soon? Only two theaters far from me have got it this weekend and it looked pretty good and I thought it was supposed to be wide this weekend


Sun Apr 16, 2023 9:21 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: April 21-23 Predictions
Mario's drop is going to be interesting to see.

It's Sat and Sun would have allowed it to pull a 2nd weekend of -30%. Friday was inflated by Good Friday.

Not outside of the realm of possibility Mario could pull an under 30% drop in its 3rd weekend ($65M).

If it approaches Avatar's $68,490,688 3rd weekend (supported by holidays), it would be the #2 3rd biggest weekend of all time behind only AFW ($90.2M).


Mon Apr 17, 2023 2:17 pm
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Post Re: April 21-23 Predictions
O wrote:
Mario's drop is going to be interesting to see.

It's Sat and Sun would have allowed it to pull a 2nd weekend of -30%. Friday was inflated by Good Friday.

Not outside of the realm of possibility Mario could pull an under 30% drop in its 3rd weekend ($65M).

If it approaches Avatar's $68,490,688 3rd weekend (supported by holidays), it would be the #2 3rd biggest weekend of all time behind only AFW ($90.2M).


AFW?? :er: did you mean TFA

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Mon Apr 17, 2023 2:58 pm
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Post Re: April 21-23 Predictions
Rev wrote:
O wrote:
Mario's drop is going to be interesting to see.

It's Sat and Sun would have allowed it to pull a 2nd weekend of -30%. Friday was inflated by Good Friday.

Not outside of the realm of possibility Mario could pull an under 30% drop in its 3rd weekend ($65M).

If it approaches Avatar's $68,490,688 3rd weekend (supported by holidays), it would be the #2 3rd biggest weekend of all time behind only AFW ($90.2M).


AFW?? :er: did you mean TFA


Yes! :P


Mon Apr 17, 2023 3:04 pm
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Begging Naked
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Post Re: April 21-23 Predictions
MadGez wrote:
The Covenant is getting 3000+ Theatres so you’d think it can get to $10m but buzz has been low.


Reviews are surprisingly solid too - its Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic scores are both the best of Guy Ritchie's career! But yeah I'll be pleasantly surprised by any opening above $7M. Maybe middle America will come out to Support the Troops or whatever?

Very curious to see how Beau does though. I'm still unsure of how many theaters it's in (judging from the ones getting in my area it's probably under 1,000?) but it's pre-sales are surprisingly good for a three hour fantastical dark comedy with mixed reviews. Ari Aster seems to be a genuine low-key draw after Hereditary and Midsommar, at least for a specific audience.


Thu Apr 20, 2023 7:59 am
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Post Re: April 21-23 Predictions
Covenant is bombing. Looks like sub 1m previews and single digit OW. Evil dead on the other hand is doing well with very limited shows today. i think its going to come close to 3m previews with good walkups and hit 20m+ OW.

Mario is a monster. 4.8m wed and with small releases its thursday drop should not be bad. I can see it come close to 60m 3rd weekend.

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Thu Apr 20, 2023 11:11 am
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Post Re: April 21-23 Predictions
Has someone as big as Guy Ritchie ever released two films in back to back months and had both of them flop?

I need Evil Dead to breakout so I don't come in last again in the draft. There's been so many horror releases though, can it really stand out amongst the pack?


Thu Apr 20, 2023 2:16 pm
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Post Re: April 21-23 Predictions
You know they were desperate when calling it "Guy Ritchie's The Covenant"

A war movie like this is not very connected to his shtick, therefore it doesn't help. Operaton Fortune should've benefitted more from Guy Ritchie, but adding "Ruse de guerre" at the end was an extremely dumb idea.

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Thu Apr 20, 2023 2:38 pm
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Post Re: April 21-23 Predictions
I never had a problem putting the director’s name in front. John Carpenter did so they would never blame actors, screenwriters, etc, if it was a miss. It can easily be mistaken as an ego thing though for Ritchie, I think it’s more his way of saying hey, I’m trying something different. Seems to have panned out though.

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Thu Apr 20, 2023 9:46 pm
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Post Re: April 21-23 Predictions
Quote:
https://deadline.com/2023/04/box-office ... 235331878/

Meanwhile, Super Mario Bros will keep the exhibitors’ plumbing full of cash with $46M-$55M, a 40% to 50% ease in weekend 3, as domestic barrels past $400M and global gets closer to $1 billion.


$60m 3rd wknd in coming :lol:

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Fri Apr 21, 2023 9:42 am
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Post Re: April 21-23 Predictions
It's pretty obvious why they added Guy Ritchie's to the title. It's to differentiate it from a horror-adjacent movie. It's to let people know that this film, with a title that is 99% of the time associated with horror films, is different. It's not ego at all. He's never done this before because he's not ever needed to. Seems to make sense to me.

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Mon Apr 24, 2023 11:27 am
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