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 Predict the Top 10 Summer Films 

What will be the highest grossing film of Summer 2023?
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Fast X 8%  8%  [ 1 ]
The Little Mermaid 15%  15%  [ 2 ]
Spider Man: Across the Spider-Verse 23%  23%  [ 3 ]
Transformers Rise of the Beasts 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Elemental 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
The Flash 15%  15%  [ 2 ]
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 23%  23%  [ 3 ]
Mission: Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1 15%  15%  [ 2 ]
Barbie 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Oppenheimer 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Haunted Mansion 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
The Meg 2: The Trench 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Blue Beetle 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Book Club 2: The Next Chapter 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Strays 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
No Hard Feelings 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Harold and The Purple Crayon 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Insidious Fear the Dark 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 13

 Predict the Top 10 Summer Films 
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Post Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
1. Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1 450 million
2. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny 430 million
3. The Flash 360 million
4. Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse 320 million
5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3 312 million
6. The Little Mermaid 250 million
7. Barbie 240 million
8. Fast X 230 million
9. Elemental 185 million
10. Oppenheimer 175 million


Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:22 pm
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Extraordinary

Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
Leaning toward MI but think Spiderverse will be the darkhorse and give it a run for its money.

Also if Rogen's TMNT movie follows Mario's playbook to a tee it's got a chance for a big breakout. Looks much closer to the original than some of the other turtles movies the past 20 years.


Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:41 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
I honestly don't get why so many people are thinking Mission Impossible to gonna gross so much? I don't think Top Gun is gonna make this do 2x Fallout


Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:43 pm
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The Kramer
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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
I'm thinking that, for the first time ever, the top two films of the year will both be animated.

1. Spiderverse -$520M
2. Indy - $400M
3. The Flash - $370M (or whatever it needs to beat BvS)
4. Dead Reckoning - $335M
5. Mermaid - $310M
6. Guardians - $300.0000000001M
7. Barbie - $225M
8. Fast X - $160M
9. Oppenheimer - $125M
10. The Meg 2 (if its released) - $125M

Hoping, for the sake of my draft and all future Pixar projects, that Elemental can reach your projections but I just don't see it right now.


Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:45 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
I'm thinking that, for the first time ever, the top two films of the year will both be animated.

1. Spiderverse -$520M
2. Indy - $400M
3. The Flash - $370M (or whatever it needs to beat BvS)
4. Dead Reckoning - $335M
5. Mermaid - $310M
6. Guardians - $300.0000000001M
7. Barbie - $225M
8. Fast X - $160M
9. Oppenheimer - $125M
10. The Meg 2 (if its released) - $125M

Hoping, for the sake of my draft and all future Pixar projects, that Elemental can reach your projections but I just don't see it right now.



I have Guardians at $299.999999999M so hope I'm closer. :P


Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:55 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
I'm gonna go with

1. Indy
2. The Little Mermaid
3. Spiderverse
4. The Flash
5. Guardians
6. Mission Impossible
7. Barbie
8. Fast 10
9. Elemental
10. Oppenheimer


Mon Apr 17, 2023 1:55 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
Interestingly, 4 of the top 8 on the all time domestic list movies could very well have been released in the last 17 months (Mario, Spidy, Avatar 2, TGM) if Mario gets past $678,815,482 to reach #8.

Titanic may be on the cusp of getting booted out of the top 10 and a $700M+ gross will probably not be enough to make it to the top 10 by 2025. 4 $680M+ movies (If Mario gets there) in 15 months makes me think we are tantalizingly close to a $1B movie but anyone's guess now what it will be since superhero movies don't seem like they'll be able to get there for a short while.

Even by lofty expectations Mario didn't look to be a $700M+ movie nor TGM so it is adding some more excitement to the box office again since superhero movies by default aren't immediately winning.


Mon Apr 17, 2023 2:05 pm
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The Kramer
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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
publicenemy#1 wrote:
I honestly don't get why so many people are thinking Mission Impossible to gonna gross so much? I don't think Top Gun is gonna make this do 2x Fallout
Fallout being the best MI alone should have garnered a pretty big bump, but Top Gun added so much more hype to it. 2X Fallout would be crazy but I think the opening weekend will be huge (over $100M) and MI movies typically have good legs. Should be enough to get it to at least $300M+, more if they can arrange an imax rerelease for late in the summer.


Mon Apr 17, 2023 2:17 pm
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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
We aren't getting a TGM sequel anytime soon (or ever) so MI is essentially the closest to a sequel we'll likely ever see and 1 year later with Cruise's goodwill a lot of people will check it out that wouldn't have otherwise to relive the Cruise action excitement.

These movie halos have a precedent. Captain Marvel so close to Avengers End Game, Uncharted right after Spidy for Holland. Granted, doubling the MI gross may be optimistic but there will be some type of positive goodwill going its way. Cruise certainly realized this when he made his "Thank you fans" messages about TGM while showcasing stunts and the upcoming release of the MI movies. Paramount knows they have to go all in on TGM goodwill here toward MI.


Mon Apr 17, 2023 2:22 pm
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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
1-The Little Mermaid
2- Indy 5
3- Guardians 3
4- Spiderverse
5- Mission Impossible 7
6- The Flash
7- Fast X
8- Barbie
9- TMNT:MM
10- Blue Beetle
.
.
11- Elemental

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Mon Apr 17, 2023 2:53 pm
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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
1. The Flash
2. Mission Impossible 7.1
3. Elemental
4. Indiana Jones 5
5. Guardians of the Galaxy
6. Spiderverse
7. Fast X
8. Oppenheimer
9. The Little Mermaid
10. Barbie

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Most Anticipated 2023

1. Super Mario Bros Movie
2. Rebel Moon
3. Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning Part 1
4. Oppenheimer
5. The Flash
6. Elemental
7. Aquaman 2
8. Dune Part 2
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
10. Blue Beetle


Mon Apr 17, 2023 3:09 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
Random bit of trivia I found interesting, if Mario does make it to the top 10 of all time domestic, 9/10 movies in the top 10 list will have NOT been released in the traditional summer season (May - August months):

1 Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens - December
2 Avengers: Endgame - April
3 Spider-Man: No Way Home - December
4 Avatar - December
5 Top Gun: Maverick - May
6 Black Panther - November
7 Avatar: The Way of Water - December
8 Avengers: Infinity War - April
9 Titanic - December
10 Super Mario (TBD) - April

December (5/10)
April (3/10)
November (1/10)
May (1/10)

We've seen movies from Nov/Dec. do big box office for decades. April was once a dumping ground of movies though that weren't seen as worthy for the summer up to a decade ago. The Fast Franchise + Avengers really changed that and it's now often anchoring the biggest movies of the year.


Mon Apr 17, 2023 3:17 pm
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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
Can we include Mario on this? it kinda opened early and fucked Guardians of any little hype they had.

Also sorry but no. Indy is gonna flop big time. No one from GenZ is interested in it. No way this takes off Top Gun style.

If any MI 7 will be the ultimate winner of the summer. The dark horse being SpiderVerse or Mario since it's gonna win the fucking year.

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Mon Apr 17, 2023 5:36 pm
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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
Mau wrote:
Can we include Mario on this? it kinda opened early and fucked Guardians of any little hype they had.

Also sorry but no. Indy is gonna flop big time. No one from GenZ is interested in it. No way this takes off Top Gun style.

If any MI 7 will be the ultimate winner of the summer. The dark horse being SpiderVerse or Mario since it's gonna win the fucking year.


:funny: :funny: :funny: well then drop YOUR Top Ten!

and no :roll: Mario can't be included

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Last edited by Rev on Fri Apr 21, 2023 5:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Apr 17, 2023 5:47 pm
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now we know
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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
Indiana Jones

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Mon Apr 17, 2023 6:44 pm
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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
No on superhero/Guardians/Mermaid. Indy or MI with Barbie as sleeper.

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Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:13 pm
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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
Given the taste of film goers in the early 2020s, I’d say MI7 will win. Audiences want bland and inoffensive without being seen as needlessly socially progressive and true to their characters without pandering for social points. Also superhero movies, especially DC movies not associated with Batman, are out (Guardians being a possible exception).

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Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:14 pm
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Dont Mess with the Gez
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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
Mau wrote:
Can we inclu

Also sorry but no. Indy is gonna flop big time. No one from GenZ is interested in it. No way this takes off Top Gun style.

.


I agree there is little GenZ support for this but older auds could still turn up in big numbers ala Maverick.

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Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:50 pm
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Hold the door!

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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
I don’t see any evidence young people cared about top Gun before last May


Mon Apr 17, 2023 8:23 pm
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Dont Mess with the Gez
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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
No they didnt but older audiences turned up in HUGE numbers.

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Mon Apr 17, 2023 8:33 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
Younger audiences only showed up to TGM in droves after it became a zeitgeist movie driven by older moviegoers. That's what made it "save the industry" considering that demo wasn't showing up to theaters for 2 years. In the following weeks after OW the demographic breakdown got younger and younger on a weekly basis.

Demo breakdown (TGM OW): 55% >35 years old, 37% 18-34 years old


Mon Apr 17, 2023 8:38 pm
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Dont Mess with the Gez
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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
O wrote:
We aren't getting a TGM sequel anytime soon (or ever) so MI is essentially the closest to a sequel we'll likely ever see and 1 year later with Cruise's goodwill a lot of people will check it out that wouldn't have otherwise to relive the Cruise action excitement.

These movie halos have a precedent. Captain Marvel so close to Avengers End Game, Uncharted right after Spidy for Holland. Granted, doubling the MI gross may be optimistic but there will be some type of positive goodwill going its way. Cruise certainly realized this when he made his "Thank you fans" messages about TGM while showcasing stunts and the upcoming release of the MI movies. Paramount knows they have to go all in on TGM goodwill here toward MI.


The problem with your posts O is that there is so much of interest to unpack and respond to that it's hard to get the time to do so ;)

While love/nostalgia for MI is perhaps not as strong as the love/nostalgia for TG was - it does look like MI will be the halo beneficiary. The good thing is that the franchise is still well received and it's in finale mode so it becomes more of a must see. It will need a big jump from the last installment, but it is doable.

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Mon Apr 17, 2023 8:43 pm
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Dont Mess with the Gez
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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
O wrote:
Interestingly, 4 of the top 8 on the all time domestic list movies could very well have been released in the last 17 months (Mario, Spidy, Avatar 2, TGM) if Mario gets past $678,815,482 to reach #8.

Titanic may be on the cusp of getting booted out of the top 10 and a $700M+ gross will probably not be enough to make it to the top 10 by 2025. 4 $680M+ movies (If Mario gets there) in 15 months makes me think we are tantalizingly close to a $1B movie but anyone's guess now what it will be since superhero movies don't seem like they'll be able to get there for a short while.

Even by lofty expectations Mario didn't look to be a $700M+ movie nor TGM so it is adding some more excitement to the box office again since superhero movies by default aren't immediately winning.


Quite mind boggling. Must see films have returned with a vengeance and perhaps the year (or year + half) without theatre movies while getting audiences comfortable with streaming also opened up an urge to see big event films in theatres again.

Mario looked like a $400m film at best (HUGE in itself) - but a possible $700m is just amazing.

On the other end - The Incredibles 2 $608m gross still boggles the mind. Yes, it was a rare sequel that audiences have wanted for years but for some reason it just doesn't feel like the event that SMB is. It is perhaps the most underrated or overlooked uber blockbuster performance... ever?

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Mon Apr 17, 2023 8:48 pm
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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
O wrote:
Random bit of trivia I found interesting, if Mario does make it to the top 10 of all time domestic, 9/10 movies in the top 10 list will have NOT been released in the traditional summer season (May - August months):

1 Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens - December
2 Avengers: Endgame - April
3 Spider-Man: No Way Home - December
4 Avatar - December
5 Top Gun: Maverick - May
6 Black Panther - November
7 Avatar: The Way of Water - December
8 Avengers: Infinity War - April
9 Titanic - December
10 Super Mario (TBD) - April

December (5/10)
April (3/10)
November (1/10)
May (1/10)

We've seen movies from Nov/Dec. do big box office for decades. April was once a dumping ground of movies though that weren't seen as worthy for the summer up to a decade ago. The Fast Franchise + Avengers really changed that and it's now often anchoring the biggest movies of the year.


Yes - the summer is just not as conducive to record breakers as we'd expect. Probably because the marketplace is so crowded. It took a big opener turned WOM hit to get back in (TGM) and that was May. Star Wars moving out of summer also played a part.

April is an interesting case study. I think it may have had the lowest monthly OW record of any month at one point before F&F/CA/Avengers?

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Mon Apr 17, 2023 8:52 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Predict the Top 10 Summer Films
Definitely was a low month for decades until Fast. April top OW history:

2019 - Present: Avengers: Endgame $357,115,007
2018 - 2019: Avengers: Infinity War $257,698,18
2015 - 2018: Furious 7 $147,187,040
2014 - 2015: Captain America: The Winter Soldier $95,023,721
2011 - 2014: Fast Five $86,198,765
2009 - 2011: Fast & Furious $70,950,500
2003 - 2009: Anger Management $42,220,847 - Only other $40M+ OW was Scary Movie 4 (2006)
2002 - 2003: The Scorpion King $36,075,875 - Only three movies did $30M+ until 2009.
1999 - 2002: The Matrix $27,788,331
1998 - 1999: Lost in Space $20,154,919
1993 - 1998: Indecent Proposal $18,387,632
1989 - 1993: Pet Sematary $12,046,179
1984 - 1989: Friday the 13th: The Final Chapter $11,183,148

April's top OW went from $42M in March 2009 and only ever saw 3 $30M+ OW's up to that point to 10 years later $357M.


Tue Apr 18, 2023 1:00 am
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