Ant Man and the Wasp Quantumania 105/115

Of an Age less than 1m

Ant-man had extraordinary presales start at uber blockbuster level. Since then it has cooled off and by now it should have started to accelerate to final phase but meh reactions have not helped. But your prediction above seems good though Monday should be higher.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania 95m/110m

Ant-Man $57m
Ant-Man and the Wasp $75m

First blockbuster of the year, first since Avatar: The Way of Water ... people will wanting to get out to the cinema. It can $100 million opening, but it's not a failure/flop/bomb/disappointment if it doesn't.

agree

also this is a franchise that did 519m and 622m WW respectively
If AMQ does 700m WW... it's a HUGE WIN! and it will!

Presales have cratered over past week. Its doing about half of BP2 sales at this point. I am thinking now about 18m previews and 3 day barely above 100m. 115m over 4 days and sub 250m finish. WW under 600m. China is looking meh as well looking at OD presales. This is 2nd disappointment for MCU in middle kingdom after Wakanda bombed over there last week.

Ant-Man reviews are mixed leaning positive.

Apparently the special effects are bad and there is lot of setup for little payoff.

53 on meta. Only one point higher than Eternals.

It started low enough it will likely end up rotten. If I remember correctly, Eternals started in the 70s.

Yikes, Marvel is clearly not learning from Phase 4 based on reactions

Welp. Curious to see how this does. I think as long as it matches the last one it's not bad.

And it's already rotten, 59%.

The CGI is becoming a huge problem. People want a spectacle. Marvel needs to start embracing delay culture as video games have. It pisses the shareholders off, and makes some of your old advertising worthless, but the product will end up making more money. And it doesn't damage your brands reputation to the fans.

I agree. I heard they used 20 different CGI companies to get this out in a crazy schedule. They treat CGI artists like trash overwork and underpay them. Since they are the big kahuna they are able to get away with it. Hopefully things change for better.

https://www.cnet.com/culture/entertainm ... aking-out/

The VFX industry is notoriously toxic with insane work schedules and pay that doesn't justify those schedules. Not surprised Marvel, which make films that are basically pro-authoritarian and military industrial complex propaganda, would partake in such a thing.

Hope this bombs so hard it puts Disney out of business.

CGI in Marvel films, and Hollywood in general, has been pretty bad since 2020. Well, not "bad" in many cases, just very noticeable. Green screen backdrops have been especially poor as it's regularly obvious the actors are in front of a screen to the point it's become distracting at times. When you can tell, with relative ease, that the characters are on a set with a screen behind them, it takes you out of the experience.

I guess they're trying to rush films out by relying so heavily on CGI (and rushing the work on the CGI) since the pandemic delayed things by by a year or two already. I'd gladly wait another year to get these films looking better.

Thinking 14-15m Previews and 45ish OD

The penny dropped at Warner Bros. and they're now putting Magic Mike's Last Dance into 3,034 theatres.

Wow, Marlowe is getting 2,300 theatres. I saw that as more of a 400-type release. That's going to have, like, a $20 PTA, lol.

Previews were between 17-18m apparently. So that absolutely should lock up at least 90m and should hit 100-115m 3 day if it holds normally throughout the weekend and is not hyper front loaded like DR Strange and Thor, which is possible since this was likely less anticipated.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantemania had a 85% verified (over 1000+ ratings) audience score on Rotten Tomatoes as of 2/17/2023 and a 83% (over 5000+ ratings) total audience score. Ant-man and the Wasp had a 80% audience score. Thor: Love and Thunder had a 77% audience score. Internal first weekend multiples were (75.8/11.5) 6.59 for Ant-man 2 and (144.2/29) 4.97 for Thor 4.
Ant-man 3 will have an opening weekend between $87 million and $115 million. Right in the middle of this range is $101 million. I voted for Ant-man 3 to have an opening 3 day weekend greater than $100 million.

Only The Fate of the Furious had an opening day north of 44m and missed 100m. So there may be 2 films in that club

Official number is 46m.