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| February 3-5 Predictions https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89794 |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Thu Feb 02, 2023 10:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: February 3-5 Predictions |
Banshees isn’t the most commercially viable type of picture, but it’s funny and crowd pleasing enough I’d have thought it could do more than 10m domestic. |
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| Author: | O [ Fri Feb 03, 2023 2:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: February 3-5 Predictions |
As the ratings for the Oscars have deteriorated and they shifted in the direction of film recognition no one was seeing, they've gotten less impactful from a box office perspective. We've only had one best picture winner make 100M+ the last 10 years with Argo (2012). Prior to that we had Kings Speech (2010), Slumdog Millionaire (2008), The Departed (2006), and a 1997 - 2004 run of BP winners making $100M+. A BP win used to be able to mean something box office wise but seems to mean less and less. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Fri Feb 03, 2023 2:31 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: February 3-5 Predictions |
O wrote: A BP win used to be able to mean something box office wise but seems to mean less and less. Yes, as it has coincided more and more with woke politics it has become less helpful towards the box office. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Fri Feb 03, 2023 3:32 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: February 3-5 Predictions |
This is why we need Top Gun to win Best Picture. Maybe it could be a step towards relevancy again. I miss when movies got big boosts from Oscar nominations. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Fri Feb 03, 2023 3:46 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: February 3-5 Predictions |
I'm not sure if Maverick winning Best Picture will repair the Oscars' credibility. It is an excellent film (and personally I would LOVE for it to win) but it's not a typically Academic popular Best Picture winner a la, say, Titanic or Return of the King. It's perhaps too populist, too commercial, and a film you would expect the MTV Movie Awards to honour rather than the Academy. But I think Elvis would suit it well. It's both popular and prestige-y. If there was ever a film to benefit financially from winning the Best Picture, it would be Everything, though I'm not sure we would be able to see all the upticks. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Fri Feb 03, 2023 9:26 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: February 3-5 Predictions |
Algren wrote: O wrote: A BP win used to be able to mean something box office wise but seems to mean less and less. Yes, as it has coincided more and more with woke politics it has become less helpful towards the box office. Indeed. And the quality of the winning films over the past decade have decreased substantially - with a couple of exceptions (I.e Parasite) |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Fri Feb 03, 2023 10:07 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: February 3-5 Predictions |
BTS Yet To Come should do some damage this weekend as well. $25 tickets |
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| Author: | O [ Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: February 3-5 Predictions |
Some of the early 2000 box office grosses for BP winners was mind boggling. If Chicago ($171M) came out today I'd be surprised if it passed $40M. On the Oscars, they gave BP to Driving Miss Daisy in 1989 so I think there are other reasons too for the demise here. I feel like social media also has opened up everyone as a movie critic where established groups like "the Academy" are losing sway. I'm pretty sure if Mr Beast started a top 5 movie list of the year with his audience (he wouldn't but hypothetically), they would get more of a box office increase than a movie winning every category at the Oscars could. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:50 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: February 3-5 Predictions |
Chicago was still based on the second most popular musical of all time in the US. Wouldn't have sold as many tickets for sure, but a total well over 100m would still be likely today, IMO |
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| Author: | O [ Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:59 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: February 3-5 Predictions |
Cats ($27M) is #4 on the top musical list with Phantom at #1 ($51M). Not sure if it could but TGS does show it's not impossible. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Fri Feb 03, 2023 12:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: February 3-5 Predictions |
O wrote: Cats ($27M) is #4 on the top musical list with Phantom at #1 ($51M). Not sure if it could but TGS does show it's not impossible. Cats is obviously a very difficult musical to translate, and had terrible reviews and WOM. Chicago was much more straightforward. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Fri Feb 03, 2023 12:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: February 3-5 Predictions |
Algren wrote: I'm not sure if Maverick winning Best Picture will repair the Oscars' credibility. It is an excellent film (and personally I would LOVE for it to win) but it's not a typically Academic popular Best Picture winner a la, say, Titanic or Return of the King. It's perhaps too populist, too commercial, and a film you would expect the MTV Movie Awards to honour rather than the Academy. But I think Elvis would suit it well. It's both popular and prestige-y. If there was ever a film to benefit financially from winning the Best Picture, it would be Everything, though I'm not sure we would be able to see all the upticks. Top Gun would certainly be their best bet though. I would compare it to commercial films like Gladiator winning back when they used to. Top Gun is the film of the year and should be awarded as such. I don't know how Elvis got so many nominations this awards season. A win would be a joke. Reviews aren't even amazing. |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Fri Feb 03, 2023 12:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: February 3-5 Predictions |
O wrote: Cats ($27M) is #4 on the top musical list with Phantom at #1 ($51M). Not sure if it could but TGS does show it's not impossible. Those didn't have the reviews that Chicago did. With a wide opening at Christmas it could have still done very well. Though yeah probably not as much as it did. It wasn't all that long ago that La La Land did 151 Million. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Fri Feb 03, 2023 10:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: February 3-5 Predictions |
lilmac wrote: Some of ya'll have never participated in our Derby. This is your opportunity to mark The official Return of a Normal Boxoffice year. Let's honor the occasion with a higher Derby participation turnout! :-) Well, you managed to get more entries. Seven! But everyone predicted a $20 million opener. 
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| Author: | lilmac [ Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:17 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: February 3-5 Predictions |
Woohooo! |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sat Feb 04, 2023 9:17 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: February 3-5 Predictions |
C CinemaScore for Knock. Legs will be short. |
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