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February 3-5 Predictions
https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89794		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Jan 27, 2023 9:13 am ]
Post subject:  February 3-5 Predictions
Knock at the Cabin -27m
80 for Brady- 14m
The Amazing Maurice- unsure of theater count, maybe 3-4m

Knock at the Cabin will do well, but it feels like there is less buzz than for M3gan, and the trailer gets laughs sometimes when i saw it with other things.
Author:  O [ Fri Jan 27, 2023 2:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
80 For Brady is everywhere and Paramount is giving it a big launch and one of the largest theater counts for an original comedy in a long time (3700+).

Buzz, cross demo appeal and proximity to the Super Bowl could help this out. Feeling this could possibly break $20M and make a run for $80M. The "based on a true story" element also seems to work time and time again.

It also just feels like mindless fun and so could resonate with moviegoers who pretty much rejected the serious Oscar movies and may want lighter fare.

For Woods I see under M3Gan. It had more buzz before but has felt like its slowed down a bit so not seeing a mega opening. A lot will depend on WOM for M. Night movies.
Author:  Algren [ Fri Jan 27, 2023 2:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Under M3GAN.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri Jan 27, 2023 4:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Gonna go with 22m for Knock at the Cabin. If reviews are decent and its not divisive maybe it can do 25m+.

Would be nice to see it and 80 for Brady do 20m+.
Author:  Shack [ Fri Jan 27, 2023 4:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
80 for Brady breaks out
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Fri Jan 27, 2023 4:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Old was so bad that I can't even take Knock At The Cabin seriously.

Also, what is the audience for 80 For Brady? Most football fans hate Tom Brady and the New England Patriots. Is it gonna be a date night for old people?


However, the box office has been very healthy lately, so even with these factors working against the openers they still might perform decently.
Author:  Algren [ Fri Jan 27, 2023 6:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
I also don't really see the audience for 80 for Brady. Are old women interested in American football? Or I guess they don't need to be. It will be going for the "old women fancy young star" angle, which older women can relate to whether sports or entertainment or political stars are the focus.

One thing is clear, it certainly will be of no interest to American football fans aged below 60, I'd think.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Mon Jan 30, 2023 12:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Old was so bad that I can't even take Knock At The Cabin seriously.


I agree Old was not good but this isn't a Shyamalan original. It's based on the book The Cabin at the End of the World (a much cooler title) by Paul Tremblay. I'm hoping not being of his own creation will help this one. I've seen many positive reactions online from screenings so I trust it should at least be fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. Might just be low 60's but reviews shouldn't be bad.

Anyway I think it opens to 27 Million on the high end. I don't know why it's even worth saying it won't be as big as M3GAN. Duh. :P
Author:  Magic Mike [ Mon Jan 30, 2023 12:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Algren wrote:
One thing is clear, it certainly will be of no interest to American football fans aged below 60, I'd think.


I actually want to see it and so do friends of mine that could not care less about football. It looks quite cute.
Author:  Algren [ Mon Jan 30, 2023 12:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
I think gay men come under the over 60s female demographic ;)
Author:  Shack [ Mon Jan 30, 2023 1:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Some moms who don’t know football might know Brady from recent divorce celeb drama. The male football fans aren’t gonna go though.
Author:  zwackerm [ Tue Jan 31, 2023 3:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
My theater has sold far more tickets for 80 For Brady than for Knock at the Cabin so far
Author:  O [ Tue Jan 31, 2023 5:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
80 For Brady is at 61% right now on RT so mixed but the target demo hasn't had films in a while so still think its gonna do decently. This review though...

Quote:
A doctor could play “80 for Brady” on a loop and spend all day performing colonoscopies.
Author:  MadGez [ Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
It does look like the battle between the two films will be closer than first thought which is disappointing for Cabin.

Thinking:

Knock on Cabin: $18.1m
80 for Brady: $13.5m
Author:  zwackerm [ Wed Feb 01, 2023 12:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Glass and Old really seem to have killed the resurgence of M Night with The Visit and Split
Author:  Shack [ Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
M Night would be great for straight to streaming. If he dropped movies on Netflix or Apple I’m sure people would show up on name alone.
Author:  zwackerm [ Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
When does the review embargo drop?

His films are still very cinematic, I don't want them going straight to streaming
Author:  O [ Wed Feb 01, 2023 3:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Otto's dailies are exceptional. It's Tues # is 71% of its last Sunday # and 53% of its last Friday #. Could be at $54M by Sunday before a $70M finish.

Cabin potentially disappointing works out in Avatar's favor though. Avatar could be at about $637M by Sunday. I have Avatar right now at about $680-685M finish.

Tues #'s:
Avatar: The Way of Water $1,500,000 -25% $623,524,190 47
A Man Called Otto $1,040,000 -34% $47,596,019
Author:  Rev [ Wed Feb 01, 2023 4:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Knock at the Cabin -21m
80 for Brady- 15m
AVATAR WOW - $12m
Author:  lilmac [ Wed Feb 01, 2023 4:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Some of ya'll have never participated in our Derby. This is your opportunity to mark The official Return of a Normal Boxoffice year.

Let's honor the occasion with a higher Derby participation turnout! :-)
Author:  lilmac [ Wed Feb 01, 2023 4:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
I think Chosen could go above $10M.
Author:  zwackerm [ Wed Feb 01, 2023 8:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Reviews lean positive but probably not enough for huge breakout
Author:  Barrabás [ Wed Feb 01, 2023 8:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Shack wrote:
M Night would be great for straight to streaming. If he dropped movies on Netflix or Apple I’m sure people would show up on name alone.


I agree. His films also tend to have very marketable 'high concept' thriller plots but are also very polarizing, so I imagine a lot of casual moviegoers are intrigued by the premise of his films but reluctant to spend $15 on a movie ticket when there's a somewhat high chance they might hate it. But less of an issue if you're just watching on streaming and halfway through realize you're not into it.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Thu Feb 02, 2023 2:01 am ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
My theater has sold far more tickets for 80 For Brady than for Knock at the Cabin so far


Same here. I won't be surprised if Brady opens higher. Knock does have the advantage of higher ticket prices though. 80 for Brady is offering matinee ticket prices for all shows, regardless of time.
Author:  Algren [ Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: February 3-5 Predictions
The expansion for Banshees only managed to creep it over $10 million, lol. I know there's usually low-grossing Best Picture nominees, but just looking at its total every day and it not moving is pretty deflating. Who'd want a Best Picture nomination these days? It does nothing for you.

An expansion also pushed Tar over $6 million. Ooooh, world beaters! ;)
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