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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20345 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Banshees isn’t the most commercially viable type of picture, but it’s funny and crowd pleasing enough I’d have thought it could do more than 10m domestic.
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Thu Feb 02, 2023 10:20 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: February 3-5 Predictions
As the ratings for the Oscars have deteriorated and they shifted in the direction of film recognition no one was seeing, they've gotten less impactful from a box office perspective. We've only had one best picture winner make 100M+ the last 10 years with Argo (2012).
Prior to that we had Kings Speech (2010), Slumdog Millionaire (2008), The Departed (2006), and a 1997 - 2004 run of BP winners making $100M+.
A BP win used to be able to mean something box office wise but seems to mean less and less.
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Fri Feb 03, 2023 2:24 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67041
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Re: February 3-5 Predictions
O wrote: A BP win used to be able to mean something box office wise but seems to mean less and less. Yes, as it has coincided more and more with woke politics it has become less helpful towards the box office.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Fri Feb 03, 2023 2:31 am |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: February 3-5 Predictions
This is why we need Top Gun to win Best Picture. Maybe it could be a step towards relevancy again. I miss when movies got big boosts from Oscar nominations.
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Fri Feb 03, 2023 3:32 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67041
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Re: February 3-5 Predictions
I'm not sure if Maverick winning Best Picture will repair the Oscars' credibility. It is an excellent film (and personally I would LOVE for it to win) but it's not a typically Academic popular Best Picture winner a la, say, Titanic or Return of the King. It's perhaps too populist, too commercial, and a film you would expect the MTV Movie Awards to honour rather than the Academy. But I think Elvis would suit it well. It's both popular and prestige-y. If there was ever a film to benefit financially from winning the Best Picture, it would be Everything, though I'm not sure we would be able to see all the upticks.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Fri Feb 03, 2023 3:46 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Algren wrote: O wrote: A BP win used to be able to mean something box office wise but seems to mean less and less. Yes, as it has coincided more and more with woke politics it has become less helpful towards the box office. Indeed. And the quality of the winning films over the past decade have decreased substantially - with a couple of exceptions (I.e Parasite)
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Fri Feb 03, 2023 9:26 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20345 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February 3-5 Predictions
BTS Yet To Come should do some damage this weekend as well. $25 tickets
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Fri Feb 03, 2023 10:07 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Some of the early 2000 box office grosses for BP winners was mind boggling. If Chicago ($171M) came out today I'd be surprised if it passed $40M.
On the Oscars, they gave BP to Driving Miss Daisy in 1989 so I think there are other reasons too for the demise here. I feel like social media also has opened up everyone as a movie critic where established groups like "the Academy" are losing sway. I'm pretty sure if Mr Beast started a top 5 movie list of the year with his audience (he wouldn't but hypothetically), they would get more of a box office increase than a movie winning every category at the Oscars could.
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Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:47 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20345 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Chicago was still based on the second most popular musical of all time in the US. Wouldn't have sold as many tickets for sure, but a total well over 100m would still be likely today, IMO
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Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:50 am |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Cats ($27M) is #4 on the top musical list with Phantom at #1 ($51M). Not sure if it could but TGS does show it's not impossible.
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Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:59 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20345 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February 3-5 Predictions
O wrote: Cats ($27M) is #4 on the top musical list with Phantom at #1 ($51M). Not sure if it could but TGS does show it's not impossible. Cats is obviously a very difficult musical to translate, and had terrible reviews and WOM. Chicago was much more straightforward.
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Fri Feb 03, 2023 12:02 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Algren wrote: I'm not sure if Maverick winning Best Picture will repair the Oscars' credibility. It is an excellent film (and personally I would LOVE for it to win) but it's not a typically Academic popular Best Picture winner a la, say, Titanic or Return of the King. It's perhaps too populist, too commercial, and a film you would expect the MTV Movie Awards to honour rather than the Academy. But I think Elvis would suit it well. It's both popular and prestige-y. If there was ever a film to benefit financially from winning the Best Picture, it would be Everything, though I'm not sure we would be able to see all the upticks. Top Gun would certainly be their best bet though. I would compare it to commercial films like Gladiator winning back when they used to. Top Gun is the film of the year and should be awarded as such. I don't know how Elvis got so many nominations this awards season. A win would be a joke. Reviews aren't even amazing.
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Fri Feb 03, 2023 12:17 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: February 3-5 Predictions
O wrote: Cats ($27M) is #4 on the top musical list with Phantom at #1 ($51M). Not sure if it could but TGS does show it's not impossible. Those didn't have the reviews that Chicago did. With a wide opening at Christmas it could have still done very well. Though yeah probably not as much as it did. It wasn't all that long ago that La La Land did 151 Million.
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Fri Feb 03, 2023 12:20 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67041
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Re: February 3-5 Predictions
lilmac wrote: Some of ya'll have never participated in our Derby. This is your opportunity to mark The official Return of a Normal Boxoffice year.
Let's honor the occasion with a higher Derby participation turnout! :-) Well, you managed to get more entries. Seven! But everyone predicted a $20 million opener.
_________________STOP UIGHUR GENOCIDE IN XINJIANG FIGHT FOR TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE FREE TIBET LIBERATE HONG KONG BOYCOTT MADE IN CHINA
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Fri Feb 03, 2023 10:17 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3129
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Re: February 3-5 Predictions
Woohooo!
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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Sat Feb 04, 2023 12:17 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20345 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February 3-5 Predictions
C CinemaScore for Knock. Legs will be short.
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Sat Feb 04, 2023 9:17 am |
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