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January 27-29 Predictions
https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89783		 Page 2 of 2
Author:  zwackerm [ Sun Jan 29, 2023 5:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Oscar contenders projected totals
Everything Everywhere All At Once 73m
The Fabelmans 18m
The Whale 17m
The Banshees of Inisherin 10m
Tár 7m
Women Talking 8-9m

Not so hot.
Author:  O [ Sun Jan 29, 2023 5:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Think The Whale can do low 20's. It's held decently and probably has the most respectable run of the fall Oscar expanders.
Author:  MadGez [ Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Yes, January has certainly better than expected.

Not only do we have some solid grossers, but we have a new franchise (M3GAN) and another franchise continue to do well (Searching/Missing). Otto also proved to be a successful WOM hit among adults.

The holdovers - not good other than Avatar and Puss 2. We needed one other Christmas film to be a big hit riding shotgun with the mega tentpole - much like the last two Jumanji films or Sherlock Holmes.

The oscar bait films - too uninteresting for the general audience - hence the poor box office. Nothing is must see - even for me who looks forward to this time of year. Though I did make the effort to go see Fablemans (meh, crumbles in the third act) and Babylon (much better but these "Hollywood" films rarely catch on).

Feb/March/April look strong however - especially March.
Author:  Algren [ Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Is M3GAN in danger of missing $100 million? It's $18 million shy coming off a $6.3m weekend, and big competition is opening in four days...
Author:  MadGez [ Sun Jan 29, 2023 9:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Possibly yes. Could end up in that frustrating range of $95-97m.

I'd think they'd push it over but it's no certainty. If it can fall sub 40% next week - then it is highly likely it makes it. It doesn't help that it is now on demand I believe.
Author:  zwackerm [ Sun Jan 29, 2023 11:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Puss in Boots has plenty of gas left world wide with the UK and Japan, 2 potentially lucrative territories left to go, with probably at least 50-60m more from existing territories.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Mon Jan 30, 2023 12:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
If M3GAN misses 100 I blame them throwing it on demand so soon. Sure it's still holding fine but it probably will shave off at least what it would miss 100 by.

Everything Everywhere had a pretty solid expansion considering it's been available to rent/buy/watch on Starz for so long now. If it wins Best Picture maybe it will reach 80 Million.
Author:  O [ Mon Jan 30, 2023 3:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
With actuals, Pathaan went up to 15.7% and nearly $935K more to $6,882,038 which would come at #3 for the weekend if Otto and M3Gan actuals don't go up. That's $9,483,113 over 5 days from 695 for a $9,902 (3day) and $13,645 (5day) PTA.

That is a massive tally for a Bollywood movie. Within 5 years wouldn't be too surprised to start seeing $15M openers as the films gain popularity.

I'd love to see more box office tracking there as India becomes a more sizable part of the global box office tallies.

The Wandering Earth 2 also had a big opening at $3,006,525 from 142 theaters for $21,173 PTA.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Mon Jan 30, 2023 4:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
O wrote:
With actuals, Pathaan went up to 15.7% and nearly $935K more to $6,882,038 which would come at #3 for the weekend if Otto and M3Gan actuals don't go up. That's $9,483,113 over 5 days from 695 for a $9,902 (3day) and $13,645 (5day) PTA.

That is a massive tally for a Bollywood movie. Within 5 years wouldn't be too surprised to start seeing $15M openers as the films gain popularity.

I'd love to see more box office tracking there as India becomes a more sizable part of the global box office tallies.

The Wandering Earth 2 also had a big opening at $3,006,525 from 142 theaters for $21,173 PTA.
Wow huge pta for Wandering Earth. I was wondering how long it would take for a Chinese film to do decent business over here. Obviously their military propoganda films will never catch on, but their fantasy / sci-fi blockbusters could pull in a decent buck here and there.
Author:  O [ Mon Jan 30, 2023 4:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
This was one of the strangest weekends for film releases I can recall ever seeing:

-8 movies opening from a range of 142 - 1835 theaters.
-6 movies expanding post Oscars significantly.

14 movies counting as openers or major expanders and still just 2 movies making more than $7M for the 3day. :funny: Some of the limited movies had great PTAs but was this weekend a tax write off weekend or something? :hahaha:

New:
Pathaan 695
The Wandering Earth 2 142
Left Behind 1,388
Infinity Pool 1,835
Billie Eilish Live 596
Fear 974
Maybe I Do 465
Living 644

Oscar:
Everything Everywhere All At Once 1,400
Women Talking 707 +554
The Fabelmans 1,962 +1,015
The Banshees of Inisherin 1,205 +1,050
TÁR 537 +431
Triangle of Sadness 170 +158
Author:  Algren [ Mon Jan 30, 2023 7:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
O wrote:
The Wandering Earth 2 also had a big opening at $3,006,525 from 142 theaters for $21,173 PTA.


That $3 million is from 8 days play, not just the weekend. The weekend PTA is more like $10k. Those 8 days covered all of the Lunar New Year, and targeted just the Chinese diaspora. But much like Indian or Japanese films, they are even more uber-frontloaded. So all-in-all, not much interest for Chinese movies in the grand scheme of things.
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