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January 27-29 Predictions
https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89783		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  zwackerm [ Sat Jan 21, 2023 9:38 am ]
Post subject:  January 27-29 Predictions
My cinema is getting a film called Fear and I don't know what it is.

Is Distant coming out this weekend? Another mystery!
Author:  Jonathan [ Sat Jan 21, 2023 9:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
I saw the trailer for Fear before M3GAN, looks incredibly low-rent. I'll be surprised if it cracks $2M. There's also Infinity Pool, a Neon release starring Alexander Skarsgaard and Mia Goth, which looks like the kind of art house horror that'll make $500k-$1.5M before sharply dropping off.

The only hope for a breakout next weekend will probably be the Indian blockbuster Pathaan, which opens on Wednesday but is already having some strong presales.



Oscar noms are on Tuesday, so we also might see expansions of The Fabelmans, The Whale...man I guess those are the only Picture contenders left in theaters aside from Avatar and Women Talking.
Author:  Shack [ Sat Jan 21, 2023 10:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
This or last week would have been a good time to release Babylon after limited in Dec.

80 for Brady and/or Knock at the Cabin are going to break out with dead marketplace
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sat Jan 21, 2023 12:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
At least this will be yet another good weekend for holdovers.
Author:  O [ Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Can Puss pull a 6th week over $10M? Would need say a 10-15% drop to get there. Could be at about $138M by next Sunday is it does pull that off.
Author:  MadGez [ Sun Jan 22, 2023 4:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Shack wrote:
This or last week would have been a good time to release Babylon after limited in Dec.

80 for Brady and/or Knock at the Cabin are going to break out with dead marketplace


That would have been the right strategy for Babylon
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Jan 22, 2023 4:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Babylon might have had a larger opening if it had waited, but I don't think it'd make much of a difference. If people liked the movie it would be performing like Puss In Boots.
Author:  O [ Sun Jan 22, 2023 7:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Agreed. Babylon would have flopped anywhere on the calendar.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Yeah and Babylon isn't probably gonna get any major Oscar noms. I liked the movie but Idk if would ever find commercial success
Author:  zwackerm [ Mon Jan 23, 2023 12:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Babylon is getting in for picture cuz of its SAG ensemble nom.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Mon Jan 23, 2023 5:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Everything Everywhere and Banshees expand again this weekend. I don't know how wide though.
Author:  MalcolmLives [ Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
Everything Everywhere and Banshees expand again this weekend. I don't know how wide though.


EEAAO should kick off another few months of solid grosses, eventually leading to a triumphant total over 100mil DOM ;) Obviously that won't happen (70mil is still amazing) and any additional gross is just a bonus at this point, but it'd certainly be fun to track!
Author:  O [ Wed Jan 25, 2023 2:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Otto's dailies are great and then it's weekends slightly underwhelming so won't get to $100M afterall. Should be at about $45M by the end of this weekend. Maybe $75M total? Solid with just a $50M budget but definitely thought it could go higher.

$1,560,000 -29% $37,563,147
Author:  Magic Mike [ Thu Jan 26, 2023 1:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
MalcolmLives wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
Everything Everywhere and Banshees expand again this weekend. I don't know how wide though.


EEAAO should kick off another few months of solid grosses, eventually leading to a triumphant total over 100mil DOM ;) Obviously that won't happen (70mil is still amazing) and any additional gross is just a bonus at this point, but it'd certainly be fun to track!


I wish. They should have never released it on streaming or DVD/Blu-ray ;).
Author:  zwackerm [ Thu Jan 26, 2023 1:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
I think both will be in at least 600 theaters, as the theaters around me are getting them, and we tend to get everything 600 theaters or more. We're getting the Fabelmans as well as Women Talking in terms of Oscar expansions. Hopefully we get Triangle of Sadness back soon!

Fabelmans should be able to pass the gross of Licorice Pizza to still out gross every nominee from last year besides Dune and West Side Story.
Author:  zwackerm [ Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
My theater is now showing every BP nominee except Triangle of Sadness and Top Gun Maverick ugh
Author:  O [ Sat Jan 28, 2023 2:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Avatar lost Wed to Bollywood movie Pathaan. Here are the box office grosses reported so far domestically. Already up to $3.5M so another nice bump for the Jan. box office this weekend.

Day1 (Wed): $1,488,929 - 647 Locations
Day2 (Thu): $1,091,723 - 644 Locations
Day 3 (Fri): $926,609 - 597 Locations (As of 12PM EST)

Total: $3,507,261

https://twitter.com/venkyreviews/status ... wweK3HOngA
Author:  O [ Sun Jan 29, 2023 1:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
The numbers for this weekend (and month) were surprisingly quite good.

The winner of the weekend is Bollywood movie Pathaan. $8,548,444 5day tally from 695 theaters. Big launch in India too.

Great hold for Avatar. Feel 7 may be its lucky number where it ends up on the all time adjusted list passing Avengers: Infinity War at $678,815,482. If it does, it would be the biggest film of all time to not have won its respective year.

Puss gets 6 weekends over $10M+! Needs a 6.57X multiplier from here on out to get to $200M. Given that it has yet to drop more than 19% it's getting closer and closer. Far from a lock but a good Feb. long weekend could push it there. Puss' PTA this weekend was still 1.5% higher than its opening weekend. It's 6th weekend was also just 14.6% down from its OW. Already at an 11.33X weekend multiplier and has a lot left to go.

Violent Night surprisingly went up. Who is watching it in theaters at this point?

M3Gan's hold this weekend should seal the deal for $100M. Needs a 3.78 multiplier from now on to get there. Otto is looking good for $70M+ now. Missing and Plane held well too.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun Jan 29, 2023 1:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
I want to know how much To Leslie made in 6 theaters :P.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jan 29, 2023 2:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Puss in Boots opening with $12m and still grossing $10m this weekend is crazy.
Author:  Thegun [ Sun Jan 29, 2023 3:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Great weekend
Author:  zwackerm [ Sun Jan 29, 2023 4:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Women Talking didn’t embarrass itself. Should at least avoid being the lowest grossing BP nominee, as it looks likely to out gross Triangle of Sadness and possibly Tar.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Jan 29, 2023 4:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Nice gross for Pathaan. I like this new trend of asian movies filling the gaps on weekends that Hollywood abandons.
Author:  zwackerm [ Sun Jan 29, 2023 4:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Avatar 2 will out gross Titanic pre re release but the re release will put it back in third in a few weeks
Author:  O [ Sun Jan 29, 2023 5:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: January 27-29 Predictions
Jan. 2023 is looking at about $590M or 65.7% of Jan. 2020's box office. Considering we only had one opener do more than $11M+ this month OW (M3Gan), and one holiday movie open to $13M+ (Avatar), the combination of overperforming extremely leggy holdovers and openers made some significant ground.

We saw lots of mid-tier successes this month which is a good sign for the year. The month looked like a washout, especially after Christmas movie underperformances. We have anchors for most other weekends from now until end of the year now so off to a good start to the year.

The biggest losers of the month really look to be Oscar expanders. Given the long Oscar season and big movies opening, I wonder if we'll have any Oscar movies still in the top 10 by the time the Oscars take place. Maybe only Avatar/Puss.
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