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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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February 24-26 Predictions
Jesus Revolution- 13 Cocaine Bear- 14
Ant-Man- -63%
Jesus Revolution has the best buzz of any Christian film since before Covid. Thinking double digit debut.
Cocaine Bear will be fine with teens, even if its not a huge breakout like I thought it would be originally. Maybe a Violent Night type performance
Last edited by zwackerm on Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Tue Feb 21, 2023 12:24 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32104 Location: the last free city
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
ANT-MAN 3 -56.5% a solid drop
Cocaine Bear - 25m Jesus Revolution - 12m
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Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:42 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
Pretty big drop. Big opening but bad reviews. I'll go with a 67% drop.
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Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:03 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32104 Location: the last free city
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
Algren wrote: Pretty big drop. Big opening but bad reviews. I'll go with a 67% drop. most likely but I'm being optimistic as usual
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Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:08 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
It had a better multiple throughout the weekend than Dr Strange and Thor indicating less rush factor plus no big competition so I’m hoping for something in the low 60s
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Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:16 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23787 Location: Classified
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
Could see Cocaine Bear opening anywhere from $5M to $25M. But it'll probably come on the low side sincr I drafted it.
-60-65% for Ant-Man, like Marvel used to do before Strange and Thor upped it to 70% week 2 drops.
Creed 3 is gonna breakout next week.
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Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:39 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
Cocaine Bear feels like Snakes on a Plane (big buzz online but kind of disappointed).
That said - $15-20m isn't a big stretch. I'll go with $17m.
Ant-Man - 59% - WOM is decent.
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Tue Feb 21, 2023 7:21 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18880 Location: San Diego
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
Don't see how Ant-Man drops less than Wakanda Forever. Gonna go with 65% drop.
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Tue Feb 21, 2023 7:47 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
Wakanda Forever had a much more inflated Friday due to Veterans Day. So ant man could have a much better Friday to Friday drop. Potentially
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Tue Feb 21, 2023 7:51 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
Won’t happen but if Ant Mam followed the daily pattern of Uncharted it would do 51m this weekend
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Tue Feb 21, 2023 11:06 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
its already down to 7m tuesday and probably 4m wednesday. its dropping close to 70% than 60%. Dont forget Sunday was boosted last week. Wakanda had much better reception than this turd.
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I used to be shawman.
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Wed Feb 22, 2023 12:38 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
I'm hoping Cocaine Bear can break out. Haven't seen a negative review yet so it should definitely be fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. So annoying that studios continue to embargo reviews until late in the game for movies that end up getting good ones. This seems to happen a lot with creature features. Piranha, The Shallows, Crawl, Beast, etc... To be fair people already know if these movies are going to be for them but some good buzz can't hurt.
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Wed Feb 22, 2023 11:19 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
With its enormous Wednesday drop doing away with the decent holds on Saturday Sunday and a Monday, now projecting a 36m 2nd weekend, -66%
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Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:34 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
zwackerm wrote: With its enormous Wednesday drop doing away with the decent holds on Saturday Sunday and a Monday, now projecting a 36m 2nd weekend, -66% Today it will drop another 10%. how on earth its going to gross 36m from ~ 3.4m thursday. This is not animation movie to increase that much. Plus few markets have this week school off. I am expecting slightly softer friday increase compared to last week for most holdovers as well.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:47 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
$3.8M Wed is really bad. The drop on this one could be one for the ages.
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Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:56 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
I was thinking single digit drop today, well over 100% increase Friday, 60-80% increase on Saturday
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Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:58 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
This was posted at BOT. Captain Marvel few years ago did 7.9x opening wednesday and that is after a 8% thursday increase. This aint increasing for sure. We are looking at a legendary drop > BvS. Bring on 70%+.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Thu Feb 23, 2023 2:53 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38011
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
Where are the Wednesday numbers? 7 on Tuesday and 3.8 on Wednesday can't be right
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Thu Feb 23, 2023 2:56 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
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Thu Feb 23, 2023 3:01 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20347 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
Captain Marvel opened during spring break
Most films in 2022 did about 10x the corresponding Wednesday before Weekend 8 of the year. Even if Ant-Man does on the lower end, it will do more than 7.9x it’s Wednesday
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Thu Feb 23, 2023 3:03 pm |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67043
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
With 80 for Brady looking to finish with, what, $40 million or so? it really wasn't that leggy New Year breakout we thought it might have morphed into after opening weekend. While it has still done very well for the type of film it is and the cast it has, I can't help but feel a little disappointment. It will probably finish with a good-but-quite-standard 3.x multiplier.
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Thu Feb 23, 2023 7:37 pm |
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pepe pippen
The Dark Knight
Joined: Tue Jan 12, 2010 8:25 am Posts: 768
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
The weekend is 24-26...
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Thu Feb 23, 2023 7:59 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: February 25-27 Predictions
Algren wrote: With 80 for Brady looking to finish with, what, $40 million or so? it really wasn't that leggy New Year breakout we thought it might have morphed into after opening weekend. While it has still done very well for the type of film it is and the cast it has, I can't help but feel a little disappointment. It will probably finish with a good-but-quite-standard 3.x multiplier. 80 For Brady's weekdays have been the most fascinating of its run. It really hasn't been that impressive as a weekend movie but its Tuesdays have often been nearly bigger than its weekend dailies.
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Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:37 am |
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Thegun
On autopilot for the summer
Joined: Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:14 pm Posts: 21641 Location: Walking around somewhere
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Re: February 24-26 Predictions
That’s when they bus people out of retirement homes for various activity days, shopping, church, etc. Weekends are for family visits
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Fri Feb 24, 2023 3:11 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: February 24-26 Predictions
Friday increases will be soft for sure. Avatar is down just 5% thursday to thursday and Puss is up 38% from last thursday. No way it will have holds this weekend that good. There are states where schools were off this week and so we have had strong weekdays for sure.
Deadline thinks Ant 3 can do 40m from 3.7m thursday !!!!!
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Fri Feb 24, 2023 1:38 pm |
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