DOWN GOES INFINITY WAR!
NEXT UP THE FORCE AWAKENS
AND A MONTH AFTER THAT...TITANIC
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| AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89702 |
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| Author: | Jiffy [ Mon Jan 09, 2023 12:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Wonder how much of A3's budget was already included with A2. Could need less to break even. |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 12:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Great article on how Cameron proved the naysayers wrong. https://celluloidjunkie.com/newsletter/ ... -of-water/ |
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| Author: | DP07 [ Wed Jan 25, 2023 3:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Excel wrote: I really wonder how Avatar 3 is going to do. Idk, kind of hard to predict exactly. It should almost certainly decline. I doubt it has the retention of Twilight. It will probably be more similar to Hunger Games, maybe Pirates of the Caribbean or Shrek. I doubt it will free fall; yeah it was down from Avatar, but even if the records for that movie might be considered less of a “fluke” because of Titanic, it was still difficult to repeat. Especially since I don’t think the IMAX experience for this sort of movie is as unique now (and IMAX has been in decline for years) and repeat viewings were probably cut by streaming. I would guess it will probably drop 20 something percent. Could drop more though if the number of sequels seem excessive. Maybe Jurassic World is a good comparison. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Wed Jan 25, 2023 3:59 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
China is always a question mark. By 2024, the country could be even more closed, so you have to factor that in to any equation for Avatar 3. The Way of Water is doing over $225 million there, so it's a large chunk. Other than that, all I see are positives. This will be the fire installment, which I think will be a big pull. Cameron also never fails. It's surely going to reach $1.75 billion again. |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Wed Jan 25, 2023 5:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
I think Avatar 3 will decrease, it's just so hard to keep grossing $2B+ with every installment once the audience is satisfied with a couple films, but the great legs show audiences do indeed really like Avatar 2, so I don't think it will freefall at all. Maybe a 25% decrease or so which would put it around $1.8B worldwide. |
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| Author: | Bluebomb [ Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Algren wrote: China is always a question mark. By 2024, the country could be even more closed, so you have to factor that in to any equation for Avatar 3. Avatar 3 is more likely to be stopped from playing in China due to Hollywood a la Russia than from China. I am extremely confident that Avatar 3-5 will be released in China from China's side. However, if US-China tensions worsens and another proxy war breaks out in China, I wouldn't put it past Hollywood to enforce a blanket ban on their films playing there. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Thu Jan 26, 2023 5:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Bluebomb wrote: Algren wrote: China is always a question mark. By 2024, the country could be even more closed, so you have to factor that in to any equation for Avatar 3. Avatar 3 is more likely to be stopped from playing in China due to Hollywood a la Russia than from China. I am extremely confident that Avatar 3-5 will be released in China from China's side. However, if US-China tensions worsens and another proxy war breaks out in China, I wouldn't put it past Hollywood to enforce a blanket ban on their films playing there. Absolute nonsense. Spoken like a true tankie. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Fri Jan 27, 2023 6:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
DOWN GOES INFINITY WAR! NEXT UP THE FORCE AWAKENS AND A MONTH AFTER THAT...TITANIC
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| Author: | Thegun [ Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:37 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Algren wrote: Bluebomb wrote: Algren wrote: China is always a question mark. By 2024, the country could be even more closed, so you have to factor that in to any equation for Avatar 3. Avatar 3 is more likely to be stopped from playing in China due to Hollywood a la Russia than from China. I am extremely confident that Avatar 3-5 will be released in China from China's side. However, if US-China tensions worsens and another proxy war breaks out in China, I wouldn't put it past Hollywood to enforce a blanket ban on their films playing there. Absolute nonsense. Spoken like a true tankie. Just because you learn a new term, doesn’t mean you have to use it  Not sure it really makes sense in this context. But Hollywood is not turning down profit no matter what. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Sat Jan 28, 2023 1:01 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Thegun wrote: Just because you learn a new term, doesn’t mean you have to use it Not sure it really makes sense in this context. But Hollywood is not turning down profit no matter what. I was using it as it often used with regards to China watchers. It defines someone that instinctively defends and supports the Chinese Communist Party and their policies. |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Sat Jan 28, 2023 2:48 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
I’m aware, nothing from bluebombs post screamed he was a commie enthusiast |
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| Author: | Algren [ Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:50 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Thegun wrote: I’m aware, nothing from bluebombs post screamed he was a commie enthusiast I saw his siding with China despite China always being the aggressor in these situations as just that, but I could also see how someone would see otherwise. |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Sun Jan 29, 2023 2:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
It will be interesting to see where A2 ultimately ends up. Beating Infinity War isn't a foregone conclusion with more competition and loss of premium screens. Still an utterly fantastic run it has had. My final estimate is $665-672M for its domestic tally, supplanting Titanic. 2015’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($936.6M) 2019’s Avengers: Endgame ($858.3M) 2021’s Spider-Man: No Way Home ($814.1M) 2009’s Avatar ($785.2M) 2022’s Top Gun: Maverick ($718.7M) 2018’s Black Panther ($700.4M) 2018’s Avengers: Infinity War ($678.8M) 1997’s Titanic ($659.3M) 2015’s Jurassic World ($653.4M) 2012’s The Avengers ($623.3M) |
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| Author: | Thegun [ Sun Jan 29, 2023 3:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
I think 660 is the most likely (3.5 from here) IW seems out of reach, I think 655-665 is the end point |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
I'm going with $680-685m and just over Infinity War. |
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| Author: | BJ [ Mon Jan 30, 2023 4:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
gonna pass 700m. |
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