Fuck off.
Marathon not a sprint.
You can't measure an Avatar the same way you measure an Avengers.
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| AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89702 |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
MAJOR disappointment in US and China; a historic, legendary flop in some other areas ala JAPAN WHAT HAPPENED |
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| Author: | Shack [ Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:50 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Most people have the same opinion on Avatar 1 which is good visual effects but ok story/characters, and the early word on the 2nd was the same for 3 hours, so it's just not that appealing enough to have a beating Force Awakens type run. Avatar in a vacuum is a weird sell. The first run was kind of a flukish 3D thing. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Sat Dec 17, 2022 12:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Fuck off. Marathon not a sprint. You can't measure an Avatar the same way you measure an Avengers. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sat Dec 17, 2022 2:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
... seriously. This is playing the long game. If it fails to cross Black Panther 2 then we can talk about this. |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Sat Dec 17, 2022 5:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
I think maybe it was too of its time with the 3D and blue people and CGI overload. Since then similar CGI has been everywhere, Pandora and Avatar in general no longer seem as special as they did in 2009, and no one cares about 3D anymore. And 13 years was way too long to wait for a property that had no spin-offs, TV series, etc keeping the brand alive. It should've come out in like 2014/2015. |
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| Author: | O [ Sat Dec 17, 2022 8:07 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Too early but if it does struggle... Covid, currency conversion, inflation certainly hasn't helped. The transition from Fox to Disney and then Chapek to Iger also probably didn't help having full exec push for a holistic marketing campaign. Cameron really was the only one it felt like championed this. It really feels like something that was put together last minute from a marketing campaign perspective. The re-release helped but T1 to T2 was an 8 year gap and 13 with our attention fleeting needed much more smart approach to keep people engaged with the brand. Most moviegoers I doubt could name one character's name in this movie. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Sat Dec 17, 2022 8:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Sequels to movies that break records and are once-in-a-generation earners typically don't repeat. Look at The Lost World: Jurassic Park, Jaws II, The Empire Strikes Back, Age of Ultron, heck even Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. And don't go expecting The Passion II to repeat the glories of 2004 either. The only "wrong" here is the expectations of the naysayers that think this thread should exist. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Sat Dec 17, 2022 9:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Algren wrote: Fuck off. Marathon not a sprint. You can't measure an Avatar the same way you measure an Avengers. |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:02 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Well said, Algren. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
LOL I made this after reading $35m Friday. gross is Megh so far but not WWW worthy. false alarm |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Barely outdoing the first one's adjusted Friday is grounds for a WWW thread IMO. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
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| Author: | BJ [ Sun Dec 18, 2022 12:23 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Rev wrote: Algren wrote: Fuck off. Marathon not a sprint. You can't measure an Avatar the same way you measure an Avengers. Ya, This. |
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| Author: | Excel [ Sun Dec 18, 2022 1:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
THIS WAS REALLY A TRAP TO LURE BJ OUT OF RETIREMENT GREAT SUCCESS |
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| Author: | Shack [ Sun Dec 18, 2022 5:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Avatar: Fallen Kingdom |
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| Author: | Rev [ Sun Dec 18, 2022 5:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
BJ wrote: Rev wrote: Algren wrote: Fuck off. Marathon not a sprint. You can't measure an Avatar the same way you measure an Avengers. Ya, This. BJ!!!!  he lives
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| Author: | Rev [ Sun Dec 18, 2022 5:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Excel wrote: THIS WAS REALLY A TRAP TO LURE BJ OUT OF RETIREMENT GREAT SUCCESS Well done 
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sun Dec 18, 2022 5:51 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Chill the frick out. This opening will still easily get it over 450m and probably 500m + It's really hard to get tickets for premium screens for this so I definitely see backloading due to that |
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| Author: | O [ Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Though its too early on the domestic front this thread is starting to feel justified from the APAC overseas market end though a lot of that is due to macro circumstances outside of its control. I think $2.2B will be a critical "winning" number for it. Beating Titanic for #3 of all time will still look great. Missing $2B and the top 5 of all time when your the current #1 even if its a huge $ figure will still look disappointing. At the minimum, beating TGM globally at $1.5B will still be respectable and $1.52B to pass Fast will allow it to make the top 10 globally which feels very doable. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
What Went Wrong is for when a film massively underperforms with its total, not slightly underperforms in its opening |
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| Author: | Algren [ Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:53 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
It didn't even underperform in its opening, in my opinion. It out-opened its predecessor by over $50 million. We cannot help it if some think every "big movie" should have a Star Wars opening. |
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| Author: | O [ Tue Dec 20, 2022 1:30 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
That Monday # is very disappointing and really hope for the industry's sake the dailies get significantly better this week. $16,385,820 Monday. Will fluctuate over the week as more people get out of school but assuming 3 more days of $16M put it at about $198.4M going into the weekend (though could be much higher since more kids get out of school as the week goes along). With Christmas Eve on Sat will be a challenging second weekend. 2016 was the last time we had these days. Rogue One dropped 59% despite very great reception. Moana dropped 39%. Let's give Avatar say a 40% drop to be ultra conservative. $80.4M second weekend. $278.8M tally by Dec. 25th which is a very conservative #. Avatar would need $440M from Dec. 26th on to beat TGM. I think this might just be too hard to reach even with an insane increase weekend 3. Give Avatar the best increase of 2016 movies 66% from La La Land and that's $133.5M (not happening but just being overly optimistic) and would be at $412.3M without Dec. 26 - 29th dailies. Let's give Avatar $25M each day that week to be insanely generous and it's at $512.3M by Jan. 1st. Even with a slow Jan I am not sure if it can muster another $210M to beat TGM or come close. Feel $600M may be the optimistic benchmark to hope it reaches domestically. Though worst case I am not 100% sure if $500M is a lock if it doesn't see a big increase weekend 3. I'll give the edge to Avatar but it would be real disappointing if it and WF fight for #2 for the year. There's also a serious chance if Puss drastically overperforms that it wins weekend 3 or 4 if Avatar accelerates faster than expected. |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Rogue One is a similar audience and appeal, same weekend, with the same multiplier this gets to about $460M. It's less frontloaded so $500M should be doable. But I think $600M is very very unlikely at this point. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
I think $600m is doable based on the weekdays getting stronger from here on and the fact that this is 3 hours long thus delaying viewings till people have more time. But it will be tight. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:55 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: AVATAR 2: WHAT WENT WRONG |
Rogue One is way more fanbase fueled. Avatar is a casual watch |
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