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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32098 Location: the last free city
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SMB movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB* (closed) $1b down, $1b to go
[imeem1][/imeem1]I've seen enough TSMBM will be the first animated movie to top $2 BILLION WW. the current leader biggest animated movie is The Lion King (2019) at $1.6 billion members who join before trailer 3 drops....get extra stars members:Rev stuffp *joined after opening day*Darth Indiana Bond **joined after 2nd wknd**Mau
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Last edited by Rev on Sun Apr 30, 2023 5:44 pm, edited 10 times in total.
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Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:23 am |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3129
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
There are few IPs out there with more universal appeal than Mario but $2B is a high bar. I'm out. LOL
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:44 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 37977
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
I don't see Illumination delivering enough quality wise
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Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:52 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20341 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
It will be lucky to gross 600m WW
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Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:54 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32098 Location: the last free city
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
lilmac wrote: There are few IPs out there with more universal appeal than Mario but $2B is a high bar. I'm out. LOL are their movies coming out next year?
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Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:07 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32098 Location: the last free city
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
zwackerm wrote: It will be lucky to gross 600m WW saving this
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Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:14 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32098 Location: the last free city
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
Shack wrote: I don't see Illumination delivering enough quality wise Nintendo won't let them make shitty quality movie since they're co-producing it.
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Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:20 am |
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JustLurking
Wall-E
Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:44 pm Posts: 876
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
This club is giving me "Detective pikachu > lion king" vibes
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Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:26 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32098 Location: the last free city
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
JustLurking wrote: This club is giving me "Detective pikachu > lion king" vibes LOL someone made that club?
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Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:34 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67039
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
Come on, Rev. Your admirable and eternal enthusiasm has gone too far with this one
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Thu Dec 01, 2022 12:03 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11514
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
Really want this to happen but exchange rates may have a huge impact here.
At the same time:
$400M+ domestic $200M+ Japan (Your Name did $233,794,134 I believe in 2016 so believe this can get to top 5) $200M+ China (If it's released. Detective Pikachu made $93,700,000) $100M+ South Korea $50M+ India $50M+ Australia
I could see $1B-1.3B+ from just domestic + APAC so lots will depend on EU to push it far enough to get closer to $2B.
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Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:32 pm |
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JustLurking
Wall-E
Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:44 pm Posts: 876
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
O wrote: Really want this to happen but exchange rates may have a huge impact here.
At the same time:
$400M+ domestic $200M+ Japan (Your Name did $233,794,134 I believe in 2016 so believe this can get to top 5) $200M+ China (If it's released. Detective Pikachu made $93,700,000) $100M+ South Korea $50M+ India $50M+ Australia
I could see $1B-1.3B+ from just domestic + APAC so lots will depend on EU to push it far enough to get closer to $2B. A lot of these are unbelievably optimistic. For starters I have no idea why you'd think this film had top5 all-time potential in Japan when...pretty much no hollywood adaptation of japanese material has ever been popular in Japan?
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Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:17 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
It's easy to believe something like this would do huge numbers in Japan without context. But yeah, be it adaptations of local source material (Godzilla, Detective Pikachu, etc.), or films heavily inspired by Japanese source material (Pacific Rim, The Hunger Games, etc.), they all either come in much lower than expected or sometimes disappoint outright.
There's a sort of "stigma" associated with Hollywood's attempt to adapt films based on local works. A significant potion of audiences ignore them.
I'm a bit more optimistic about Super Mario though since Nintendo is involved and Toho (or Toho-Towa) will be handling it since Universal sold their distribution rights. As a result, it has a prime release date (April 28th, the start of Golden Week), a well-known dub cast (actual voice actors), and won't have to worry about going to streaming. That said, it's certainly wise to keep expectations in check. A Top 5/10 performance is almost certainly off the table though.
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Thu Dec 01, 2022 3:22 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11514
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
Your last paragraph was exactly my feeling. Nintendo is HEAVILY involved on this one. The 90s movie was a disaster and so an iconic Japanese brand actively involved in the creation process makes me think this is an outlier and not going to be seen as a typical "Hollywood production."
Also not saying these will happen but in a best case for this to get to $2B these things would have to happen. The only one I feel more comfortable on is domestic.
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Thu Dec 01, 2022 3:49 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18872 Location: San Diego
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
... appreciate the ambition! Think it'll do very well but $1 billion these days is tough.
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Thu Dec 01, 2022 4:02 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32098 Location: the last free city
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
Algren wrote: Come on, Rev. Your admirable and eternal enthusiasm has gone too far with this one can't help it lol, blame Spider-Man: No Way Home and Top Gun: Maverick over performance back to back.
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Thu Dec 01, 2022 6:16 pm |
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stuffp
Keeping it Light
Joined: Wed Apr 08, 2015 8:06 am Posts: 11201 Location: Bright Falls
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
2000% in
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Thu Dec 01, 2022 6:48 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32098 Location: the last free city
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
YES! and then there was two
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Thu Dec 01, 2022 9:58 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32098 Location: the last free city
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
I & stuffp can’t be the only ones with balls in this damn forum
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Thu Mar 09, 2023 5:12 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
Presales started and so far looking more like "Meh"rio. Let us see how Sonic 2 comps look like soon. But this club is LOL. Lightning struck for Rev and he got one right for Maverick. It aint happening again this year buddy.
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Thu Mar 09, 2023 6:12 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6138 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
There's no way. Pokemon had a better track record at the box office and it still couldn't do a quarter of $2B.
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Thu Mar 09, 2023 8:24 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
Keyser Söze wrote: Presales started and so far looking more like "Meh"rio. Let us see how Sonic 2 comps look like soon. But this club is LOL. Lightning struck for Rev and he got one right for Maverick. It aint happening again this year buddy. Presales are looking good but this club is still crazy. Wont happen for sure. That said I can see 400/1B WW.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Sat Mar 11, 2023 2:12 pm |
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BJ
Killing With Kindness
Joined: Mon Oct 11, 2004 8:57 pm Posts: 25020 Location: Anchorage,Alaska
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
Out
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Sat Mar 11, 2023 3:59 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32098 Location: the last free city
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
Barrabás wrote: There's no way. Pokemon had a better track record at the box office and it still couldn't do a quarter of $2B. Mario > Pokémon …..by a lot
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Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:10 am |
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JustLurking
Wall-E
Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:44 pm Posts: 876
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Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
i'm surprised this club even got one in
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Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:03 pm |
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