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SMB movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB* (closed) $1b down, $1b to go
https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89660		 Page 1 of 3
Author:  Rev [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:23 am ]
Post subject:  SMB movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB* (closed) $1b down, $1b to go
[imeem1][/imeem1]I've seen enough :D
TSMBM will be the first animated movie to top $2 BILLION WW.

the current leader biggest animated movie is The Lion King (2019) at $1.6 billion

members who join before trailer 3 drops....get extra stars :sorcerer:


members:
Rev
stuffp
*joined after opening day*
Darth Indiana Bond

**joined after 2nd wknd**
Mau
Author:  lilmac [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
There are few IPs out there with more universal appeal than Mario but $2B is a high bar. I'm out. LOL
Author:  Shack [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
I don't see Illumination delivering enough quality wise
Author:  zwackerm [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
It will be lucky to gross 600m WW
Author:  Rev [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
lilmac wrote:
There are few IPs out there with more universal appeal than Mario but $2B is a high bar. I'm out. LOL


are their movies coming out next year?
Author:  Rev [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
zwackerm wrote:
It will be lucky to gross 600m WW


:funny: saving this
Author:  Rev [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
Shack wrote:
I don't see Illumination delivering enough quality wise


Nintendo won't let them make shitty quality movie since they're co-producing it.
Author:  JustLurking [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
This club is giving me "Detective pikachu > lion king" vibes
Author:  Rev [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 11:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
JustLurking wrote:
This club is giving me "Detective pikachu > lion king" vibes


LOL :hahaha: someone made that club?
Author:  Algren [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 12:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
Come on, Rev. Your admirable and eternal enthusiasm has gone too far with this one ;)
Author:  O [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
Really want this to happen but exchange rates may have a huge impact here.

At the same time:

$400M+ domestic
$200M+ Japan (Your Name did $233,794,134 I believe in 2016 so believe this can get to top 5)
$200M+ China (If it's released. Detective Pikachu made $93,700,000)
$100M+ South Korea
$50M+ India
$50M+ Australia

I could see $1B-1.3B+ from just domestic + APAC so lots will depend on EU to push it far enough to get closer to $2B.
Author:  JustLurking [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 2:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
O wrote:
Really want this to happen but exchange rates may have a huge impact here.

At the same time:

$400M+ domestic
$200M+ Japan (Your Name did $233,794,134 I believe in 2016 so believe this can get to top 5)
$200M+ China (If it's released. Detective Pikachu made $93,700,000)
$100M+ South Korea
$50M+ India
$50M+ Australia

I could see $1B-1.3B+ from just domestic + APAC so lots will depend on EU to push it far enough to get closer to $2B.

A lot of these are unbelievably optimistic. For starters I have no idea why you'd think this film had top5 all-time potential in Japan when...pretty much no hollywood adaptation of japanese material has ever been popular in Japan?
Author:  Corpse [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 3:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
It's easy to believe something like this would do huge numbers in Japan without context. But yeah, be it adaptations of local source material (Godzilla, Detective Pikachu, etc.), or films heavily inspired by Japanese source material (Pacific Rim, The Hunger Games, etc.), they all either come in much lower than expected or sometimes disappoint outright.

There's a sort of "stigma" associated with Hollywood's attempt to adapt films based on local works. A significant potion of audiences ignore them.

I'm a bit more optimistic about Super Mario though since Nintendo is involved and Toho (or Toho-Towa) will be handling it since Universal sold their distribution rights. As a result, it has a prime release date (April 28th, the start of Golden Week), a well-known dub cast (actual voice actors), and won't have to worry about going to streaming. That said, it's certainly wise to keep expectations in check. A Top 5/10 performance is almost certainly off the table though.
Author:  O [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 3:49 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
Your last paragraph was exactly my feeling. Nintendo is HEAVILY involved on this one. The 90s movie was a disaster and so an iconic Japanese brand actively involved in the creation process makes me think this is an outlier and not going to be seen as a typical "Hollywood production."

Also not saying these will happen but in a best case for this to get to $2B these things would have to happen. The only one I feel more comfortable on is domestic.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 4:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
... appreciate the ambition! Think it'll do very well but $1 billion these days is tough.
Author:  Rev [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 6:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
Algren wrote:
Come on, Rev. Your admirable and eternal enthusiasm has gone too far with this one ;)


can't help it :D

lol, blame Spider-Man: No Way Home and Top Gun: Maverick over performance back to back.
Author:  stuffp [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 6:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
2000% in
Author:  Rev [ Thu Dec 01, 2022 9:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
stuffp wrote:
2000% in

YES! :D

and then there was two :ninja: :ninja:
Author:  Rev [ Thu Mar 09, 2023 5:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
I & stuffp can’t be the only ones with balls in this damn forum
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Thu Mar 09, 2023 6:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
Presales started and so far looking more like "Meh"rio. Let us see how Sonic 2 comps look like soon. But this club is LOL. Lightning struck for Rev and he got one right for Maverick. It aint happening again this year buddy.
Author:  Barrabás [ Thu Mar 09, 2023 8:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
There's no way. Pokemon had a better track record at the box office and it still couldn't do a quarter of $2B.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Sat Mar 11, 2023 2:12 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
Keyser Söze wrote:
Presales started and so far looking more like "Meh"rio. Let us see how Sonic 2 comps look like soon. But this club is LOL. Lightning struck for Rev and he got one right for Maverick. It aint happening again this year buddy.


Presales are looking good but this club is still crazy. Wont happen for sure. That said I can see 400/1B WW.
Author:  BJ [ Sat Mar 11, 2023 3:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
Out
Author:  Rev [ Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
Barrabás wrote:
There's no way. Pokemon had a better track record at the box office and it still couldn't do a quarter of $2B.


Mario > Pokémon …..by a lot
Author:  JustLurking [ Sun Mar 12, 2023 12:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Super Mario Bros. Movie *$2 BILLION WW CLUB*
i'm surprised this club even got one in
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