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Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89640		 Page 4 of 5
Author:  pookpooi [ Mon Jan 09, 2023 1:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Jiffy wrote:
pookpooi wrote:
BoxOfficeMojo projects $641M-$769M for final the Way of Water domestic number.


Have they been doing BO analysis articles this whole time and I just missed them?

They release article twice a week (used to be more before IMDb acquisition), but they only gives final number projection on special occasions (like this).
Author:  Barrabás [ Mon Jan 09, 2023 2:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Not a $120M range....they may as well not make a prediction.
Author:  JustLurking [ Mon Jan 09, 2023 5:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
At this point whichever way it goes, probably not going to be a significant gap between TGM and A2 domestic. Pretty interesting domestic race in spite of the slaughter in their OS grosses.
Author:  Algren [ Mon Jan 09, 2023 5:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Barrabás wrote:
Not a $120M range....they may as well not make a prediction.


Even worse, it's a projection! lol
Author:  Rev [ Mon Jan 09, 2023 10:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Final Avatar 2 box office:
Domestic 750m-800m
International 1.5b-1.6b
Worldwide 2.25b - 2.4b
Author:  O [ Mon Jan 09, 2023 5:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Avatar went up $838K for a -32% drop and a 4th weekend of $45,838,986.

Needs a 5.387 multiplier to top TGM domestically. It's leaning to high possibility now, especially with another two long weekends which should cushion its drops. The more exciting box office race may eventually become Avatar 2 vs Avatar 1 if it really leaps next weekend.
Author:  Rev [ Mon Jan 09, 2023 6:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
AVATAR 2 I think will fall around 500m short of Avatar 1 :noway: :hahaha: that's crazy to even say it.

"BUT NOBODY CARES ABOUT AVATAR"

:funny: they care enough to see it and that's all that matters in the boxoffice game
Author:  Algren [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 2:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
It looks as if Avatar's international gross alone will top Maverick's worldwide total.
Author:  Cynosure [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 2:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Not counting 2020 since that was the pandemic year, it will be the first time since 2018 that the worldwide crown and the DOM crown go to different movies (AIW and Black Panther in 2018).
Author:  zwackerm [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 3:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
This weekend confirms it goes to Maverick ultimately. Needed to have signifi antly stronger weekends than Maverick to make up for its weaker weekdays and the last 2 weeks it has been barely above Maverick.
Author:  O [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 5:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Regardless of if it happens this run, with Avatar 3, 4 and 5 and likely re-releases of Avatar 2 happening multiple times in the 2020s, I wouldn't be shocked to see Avatar 2 above TGM in 2030. So technically this thread could still turn. It never specified if we were discussing original runs or not. :funny:
Author:  Algren [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 6:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
What's stopping Maverick having re-releases? I think that's more likely since it can come out every time there's a military holiday. I don't see people clamouring to check out Avatar: The Way of Water on the big screen again. By virtue of it not being as iconic as its predecessor, it probably won't be re-released either. Whereas Maverick is the 'mother of god' performer between it and its original, so that will likely tip it to be considered for re-releases.

It's not like there's going to be Avatar Marathons each time a new installment is released. The runtimes are too long.
Author:  O [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 6:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
If TG3 ever happens for sure there will be a re-release and I wouldn't be shocked by a $50M tally so you're right there. I guess Cameron has a history of re-releases and I can't recall the last Cruise movie to get a theatrical re-release.
Author:  Rev [ Sun Jan 15, 2023 7:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Algren wrote:
It looks as if Avatar's international gross alone will top Maverick's worldwide total.


That’s wild!!! :noway:
Author:  JustLurking [ Mon Jan 16, 2023 9:18 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Algren wrote:
It looks as if Avatar's international gross alone will top Maverick's worldwide total.

This will happen for sure. OS-c alone will be within ~100M or so of maverick ww.
Author:  pookpooi [ Mon Jan 16, 2023 9:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Bad news for Avatar camp, the-numbers decreases the Way of Water final domestic prediction from $800 million to $770 million.
Author:  Rev [ Mon Jan 16, 2023 10:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
pookpooi wrote:
Bad news for Avatar camp, the-numbers decreases the Way of Water final domestic prediction from $800 million to $770 million.


:whaa: :whaa: :whaa: OOOOOOOOOOH NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!
Author:  Cynosure [ Mon Jan 16, 2023 10:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
pookpooi wrote:
Bad news for Avatar camp, the-numbers decreases the Way of Water final domestic prediction from $800 million to $770 million.


Note to self: never trust "the numbers" for predictions ever again. It's not reaching 770 million.
Author:  O [ Mon Jan 16, 2023 10:50 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
All their weekend prediction numbers are off 20-40%. Hard to extrapolate good total numbers if the weekends are so off since those bad predictions compound.
Author:  Barrabás [ Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
It looks like it will finish around $650M domestic and $2.2B worldwide, which is the breakeven point Cameron spoke about. I don't think Avatar 4 and 5 will be greenlit until after Avatar 3 though. Too risky since each one of these things costs like half a billion dollars.
Author:  JustLurking [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 4:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Barrabás wrote:
It looks like it will finish around $650M domestic and $2.2B worldwide, which is the breakeven point Cameron spoke about. I don't think Avatar 4 and 5 will be greenlit until after Avatar 3 though. Too risky since each one of these things costs like half a billion dollars.

The breakeven point was ~1.4 billion, they already officially announced the film is making profits a few weeks ago. 2b was just some out of context quote media ran with.

A3/4/5 will also easily be cheaper than 2 since 2 is taking on a lot of frontloading over the tech they're going to use for the entire saga, they've definitely greenlit all of them already.
Author:  Rev [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 9:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
JustLurking wrote:
Barrabás wrote:
It looks like it will finish around $650M domestic and $2.2B worldwide, which is the breakeven point Cameron spoke about. I don't think Avatar 4 and 5 will be greenlit until after Avatar 3 though. Too risky since each one of these things costs like half a billion dollars.

The breakeven point was ~1.4 billion, they already officially announced the film is making profits a few weeks ago. 2b was just some out of context quote media ran with.

A3/4/5 will also easily be cheaper than 2 since 2 is taking on a lot of frontloading over the tech they're going to use for the entire saga, they've definitely greenlit all of them already.


Disney committed to A3 & A4 BEFORE A2 dropped.They’re in post-post production for A3 and already filmed part of A4.
A2 budget was supposedly around 450 million. :lol: more than made up that. Avatar 2 will finish with $2.3-$2.4 BILLION!
1 film will make up the budgets for 3 films.
Author:  pookpooi [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 12:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
I think A2 and A3 budget will probably be the same, whatever the number is, 350, 400, 460... that is because since they shoot back-to-back they probably divide by two to get the budget number out to public. Initially Fox gives a billion dollar to do all four movies ($250M/film) but it look like Cameron run out of budget and only finish 2, 3, and partially 4.
Author:  Rev [ Tue Jan 17, 2023 12:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
pookpooi wrote:
I think A2 and A3 budget will probably be the same, whatever the number is, 350, 400, 460... that is because since they shoot back-to-back they probably divide by two to get the budget number out to public. Initially Fox gives a billion dollar to do all four movies ($250M/film) but it look like Cameron run out of budget and only finish 2, 3, and partially 4.


and now they don't have to worry about budgets for 4 & 5 or future films/series :lol:
the big gamble is paying off handsomely :shades: 3, 4 & 5 will gross at minimum $1.5 billion each :wacko:
Author:  pookpooi [ Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
IndieWire has pick a side, a bold statement.
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