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 Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick 

Which movie will gross more domestic and worldwide?
Poll ended at Thu Dec 15, 2022 8:49 am
TGM ($720m) will stay No. 1 of 2022 domestically 21%  21%  [ 8 ]
AVATAR 2 will beat TGM domestically 29%  29%  [ 11 ]
TGM ($1.5b) will stay No. 1 of the year worldwide 3%  3%  [ 1 ]
AVATAR 2 will beat TGM worldwide 47%  47%  [ 18 ]
Total votes : 38

 Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick 
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
pookpooi wrote:
IndieWire has pick a side, a bold statement.


#YASSSSSSSSsssssss!

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Thu Jan 19, 2023 7:47 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
2 billion, wahooooo

Idk if Avatar will have enough steam to make another $120mish million to beat Maverick but I guess it depends how it does after Ant-Man comes out.


Sun Jan 22, 2023 2:24 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Where does it finish?

China is now dead for it. It will overtake Infinity War and The Force Awakens, but I cannot see it reaching Titanic.

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Tue Jan 24, 2023 6:29 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Congrats to Avatar which passed $600M officially yesterday on Day 40!

Avatar: The Way of Water $2,000,000 -28% $601,990,204 40

I will point out there, is there some creative accounting in the Monday reported # which left Avatar at $599,990,204? The $600M announcement probably would have gotten lost in the Oscar news yesterday while today the studio can push the announcement as a start to its post nomination Oscar campaign. Just looks very coincidental that Avatar was at $599.99M from the daily yesterday.

Monday # reported: $1,580,745 ($9,796 short of $600M or 0.62%) :funny:


Wed Jan 25, 2023 2:44 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
O wrote:
Congrats to Avatar which passed $600M officially yesterday on Day 40!

Avatar: The Way of Water $2,000,000 -28% $601,990,204 40

I will point out there, is there some creative accounting in the Monday reported # which left Avatar at $599,990,204? The $600M announcement probably would have gotten lost in the Oscar news yesterday while today the studio can push the announcement as a start to its post nomination Oscar campaign. Just looks very coincidental that Avatar was at $599.99M from the daily yesterday.


And that was how many million dollars Terminator 2 made domestically! :zonks:

This is definitely not a coincidence!

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Wed Jan 25, 2023 4:04 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Top Gun Maverick is getting an Oscars re-release, around 500 theatres. While I still think the Way of Water can surpass Maverick's original run, I don't think it can surpass a total number with re-release. So how do we go from here? I suggest we compare only between original run. That means if the Way of Water gets more than $718,732,821 in its first run then it wins domestic game, how about that?


Thu Jan 26, 2023 7:35 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
pookpooi wrote:
Top Gun Maverick is getting an Oscars re-release, around 500 theatres. While I still think the Way of Water can surpass Maverick's original run, I don't think it can surpass a total number with re-release. So how do we go from here? I suggest we compare only between original run. That means if the Way of Water gets more than $718,732,821 in its first run then it wins domestic game, how about that?


you're assuming TGM rerelease is going to make over $20m domestic. I don't even think it'll make 10 million.

we compare it all. original runs & lifetime runs....because Avatar 2 itself will get a rerelease in the coming years.

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Thu Jan 26, 2023 7:51 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
So there's 38 days left for Avatar: The Way of Water to reach its predecessor, and 33 days to reach Maverick. Its day 42 was $1.44 million, so it probably won't get anywhere near them.

CONSECUTIVE DAYS OVER $1 MILLION:

101 Titanic

80 Avatar
80 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial

75 Top Gun: Maverick

61 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace

59 Finding Nemo
54 Back to the Future
54 Ghostbusters
54 Jurassic Park
54 Shrek 2
52 Aladdin (2019)
52 The Avengers
52 Black Panther
52 The Hangover
52 Incredibles 2
52 Shrek
52 Toy Story 4

48 The Passion of the Christ
47 Coco
47 Frozen
47 Moana
47 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
46 Batman
45 Avengers: Infinity War
45 The Blind Side
45 Bridesmaids
45 Cars
45 Frozen II
45 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
45 Inside Out
45 Jurassic World
45 The Sixth Sense
45 Spider-Man
45 Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
45 Toy Story 3
45 Up
45 Wonder Woman
43 Independence Day
42 Avatar: The Way of Water
41 Despicable Me
41 Finding Dory
41 The Secret Life of Pets
41 Spider-Man: Far from Home
41 Terminator 2: Judgment Day
40 The Dark Knight
40 Despicable Me 2
40 Despicable Me 3
40 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
40 The Jungle Book (2016)
40 Minions: The Rise of Gru
40 Spider-Man 2

39 A Star Is Born (2018)
39 Iron Man
39 Joker
38 American Sniper
38 Apollo 13
38 Avengers: Endgame
38 Beauty and the Beast (2017)
38 Bruce Almighty
38 The Dark Knight Rises
38 Deadpool
38 Elvis
38 Inception
38 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
38 Knocked Up
38 Kung Fu Panda
38 The Lion King (2019)
38 Maleficent
38 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
38 The Proposal
38 Ratatouille
38 Saving Private Ryan
38 Shrek the Third
38 Spider-Man: Homecoming
38 Spider-Man: No Way Home
38 Wedding Crashers
38 Zootopia

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Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:27 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Avatar is at $3.57M for Friday (-24%). Should be able to do a $15M 7th weekend and $620M by the end of the weekend to move up 2 spots to #11 on the all time domestic list.


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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Might be able to hit 52 days over 1 million, I think it’ll depend on Wed drop whether it’ll make it through next weekend. Avatar should finish just above 650 million. About a 90% retention in box office and about 70% retention in tickets sold. Pretty great overall, and it held well, it could have just as easily did 475. Maybe the awards push will give it a little more

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Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:43 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Crazy that Endgame has the same amount of days as Knocked Up and The Proposal. :hahaha:


Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:50 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Crazier is Ghostbusters and back to the future off of 13 and 11 million openings. How the hell do you not dip under opening week? Crazy leggy runs

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Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:21 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
It has reached Avengers: Infinity War at 45 days over a million. The next major milestone is The Avengers on 52 days.

CONSECUTIVE DAYS OVER $1 MILLION:

101 Titanic

80 Avatar
80 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial

75 Top Gun: Maverick

61 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace

59 Finding Nemo
54 Back to the Future
54 Ghostbusters
54 Jurassic Park
54 Shrek 2
52 Aladdin (2019)
52 The Avengers
52 Black Panther
52 The Hangover
52 Incredibles 2
52 Shrek
52 Toy Story 4

48 The Passion of the Christ
47 Coco
47 Frozen
47 Moana
47 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
46 Batman
45 Avatar: The Way of Water
45 Avengers: Infinity War
45 The Blind Side
45 Bridesmaids
45 Cars
45 Frozen II
45 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
45 Inside Out
45 Jurassic World
45 The Sixth Sense
45 Spider-Man
45 Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
45 Toy Story 3
45 Up
45 Wonder Woman
43 Independence Day
41 Despicable Me
41 Finding Dory
41 The Secret Life of Pets
41 Spider-Man: Far from Home
41 Terminator 2: Judgment Day
40 The Dark Knight
40 Despicable Me 2
40 Despicable Me 3
40 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
40 The Jungle Book (2016)
40 Minions: The Rise of Gru
40 Spider-Man 2

39 A Star Is Born (2018)
39 Iron Man
39 Joker
38 American Sniper
38 Apollo 13
38 Avengers: Endgame
38 Beauty and the Beast (2017)
38 Bruce Almighty
38 The Dark Knight Rises
38 Deadpool
38 Elvis
38 Inception
38 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
38 Knocked Up
38 Kung Fu Panda
38 The Lion King (2019)
38 Maleficent
38 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
38 The Proposal
38 Ratatouille
38 Saving Private Ryan
38 Shrek the Third
38 Spider-Man: Homecoming
38 Spider-Man: No Way Home
38 Wedding Crashers
38 Zootopia

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Mon Jan 30, 2023 8:00 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Well it only made $1,078,480 on Wednesday so I doubt it makes it to a 49th day over $1 million. But let's see. Fingers crossed.

CONSECUTIVE DAYS OVER $1 MILLION:

101 Titanic

80 Avatar
80 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial

75 Top Gun: Maverick

61 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace

59 Finding Nemo
54 Back to the Future
54 Ghostbusters
54 Jurassic Park
54 Shrek 2
52 Aladdin (2019)
52 The Avengers
52 Black Panther
52 The Hangover
52 Incredibles 2
52 Shrek
52 Toy Story 4

48 Avatar: The Way of Water
48 The Passion of the Christ
47 Coco
47 Frozen
47 Moana
47 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
46 Batman
45 Avengers: Infinity War
45 The Blind Side
45 Bridesmaids
45 Cars
45 Frozen II
45 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
45 Inside Out
45 Jurassic World
45 The Sixth Sense
45 Spider-Man
45 Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
45 Toy Story 3
45 Up
45 Wonder Woman
43 Independence Day
41 Despicable Me
41 Finding Dory
41 The Secret Life of Pets
41 Spider-Man: Far from Home
41 Terminator 2: Judgment Day
40 The Dark Knight
40 Despicable Me 2
40 Despicable Me 3
40 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
40 The Jungle Book (2016)
40 Minions: The Rise of Gru
40 Spider-Man 2

39 A Star Is Born (2018)
39 Iron Man
39 Joker
38 American Sniper
38 Apollo 13
38 Avengers: Endgame
38 Beauty and the Beast (2017)
38 Bruce Almighty
38 The Dark Knight Rises
38 Deadpool
38 Elvis
38 Inception
38 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
38 Knocked Up
38 Kung Fu Panda
38 The Lion King (2019)
38 Maleficent
38 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
38 The Proposal
38 Ratatouille
38 Saving Private Ryan
38 Shrek the Third
38 Spider-Man: Homecoming
38 Spider-Man: No Way Home
38 Wedding Crashers
38 Zootopia

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Thu Feb 02, 2023 8:35 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
I think it’ll do 51, I can’t see Super Bowl Sunday being good for a 3 hour plus action movie.

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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Even with like a 70% sunday drop it will do 1m on sunday


Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:22 am
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Thegun wrote:
I think it’ll do 51, I can’t see Super Bowl Sunday being good for a 3 hour plus action movie.


Super Bowl Sunday is 2/12

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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Studio estimates $1M so we'll have to wait for an actual (in a few hours) for Thursday. If it get above $1M then I'm confident it'll have at least 52 days consecutive, but this whole million daily stat is more of an psychological than objective, there is no reason why one million is more significant than other number.


Fri Feb 03, 2023 1:13 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Update actual Thursday: $1,005,502
Guaranteed at least 52 consecutive days over $1M.


Fri Feb 03, 2023 3:42 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Nice! :D

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Fri Feb 03, 2023 9:21 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Now we're into the real business end of its run. Can it eek out another day? It needs a 14.8% week-to-week drop on Monday, and I can't see that happening. It hasn't had a drop that low for about three weeks.

CONSECUTIVE DAYS OVER $1 MILLION:

101 Titanic

80 Avatar
80 E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial

75 Top Gun: Maverick

61 Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace

59 Finding Nemo
54 Back to the Future
54 Ghostbusters
54 Jurassic Park
54 Shrek 2
52 Aladdin (2019)
52 Avatar: The Way of Water
52 The Avengers
52 Black Panther
52 The Hangover
52 Incredibles 2
52 Shrek
52 Toy Story 4

48 The Passion of the Christ
47 Coco
47 Frozen
47 Moana
47 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
46 Batman
45 Avengers: Infinity War
45 The Blind Side
45 Bridesmaids
45 Cars
45 Frozen II
45 The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
45 Inside Out
45 Jurassic World
45 The Sixth Sense
45 Spider-Man
45 Star Wars: Episode VII - The Force Awakens
45 Toy Story 3
45 Up
45 Wonder Woman
43 Independence Day
41 Despicable Me
41 Finding Dory
41 The Secret Life of Pets
41 Spider-Man: Far from Home
41 Terminator 2: Judgment Day
40 The Dark Knight
40 Despicable Me 2
40 Despicable Me 3
40 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
40 The Jungle Book (2016)
40 Minions: The Rise of Gru
40 Spider-Man 2

39 A Star Is Born (2018)
39 Iron Man
39 Joker
38 American Sniper
38 Apollo 13
38 Avengers: Endgame
38 Beauty and the Beast (2017)
38 Bruce Almighty
38 The Dark Knight Rises
38 Deadpool
38 Elvis
38 Inception
38 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
38 Knocked Up
38 Kung Fu Panda
38 The Lion King (2019)
38 Maleficent
38 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
38 The Proposal
38 Ratatouille
38 Saving Private Ryan
38 Shrek the Third
38 Spider-Man: Homecoming
38 Spider-Man: No Way Home
38 Wedding Crashers
38 Zootopia

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Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:36 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Rev wrote:
Avatar: The Way of Water will take both domestic AND worldwide numbers :ninja:

Okay having doubts creeping in that it won’t take the domestic crown :(

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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
Rev wrote:
Rev wrote:
Avatar: The Way of Water will take both domestic AND worldwide numbers :ninja:

Okay having doubts creeping in that it won’t take the domestic crown :(


Better late than never. :D


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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
O wrote:
Sorry soagg. Don't want to contribute to a feeling of celebrating a film underperforming. It would have been amazing if WF, Avatar and TGM all overperformed. My interest rooting for TGM is it's not like a run we've ever seen before. From a box office perspective, Avatar 2 doing a billion domestic would have been amazing. Not to downplay the great work Cameron and team put on in but he's had lots of iconic moments "being the king of the world" being #1 domestic for 18 of the last 25 years domestic and 23/25 globally.

It's nice to cheer for an underdog like TGM winning the year. Agreed though, box office success isn't a fixed pie where some movies have to fail for others to succeed. It's ok to root for one movie to win over another, especially if it plays into an underdog story type run. I can't deny I'm pro TGM winning the year but I'm also pro box office industry growth so not great to see Avatar struggling in some global markets either.


A billion domestic? Sorry, that’s insane. The original already did as well as could be rationally expected. Sure, it might not have been as much of a “fluke” as others, but still, it was extremely difficult, if not absolutely impossible to replicate.


Tue Jun 27, 2023 12:38 pm
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Post Re: Avatar 2 vs. Top Gun Maverick
O wrote:
Congrats to Avatar which passed $600M officially yesterday on Day 40!

Avatar: The Way of Water $2,000,000 -28% $601,990,204 40

I will point out there, is there some creative accounting in the Monday reported # which left Avatar at $599,990,204? The $600M announcement probably would have gotten lost in the Oscar news yesterday while today the studio can push the announcement as a start to its post nomination Oscar campaign. Just looks very coincidental that Avatar was at $599.99M from the daily yesterday.

Monday # reported: $1,580,745 ($9,796 short of $600M or 0.62%) :funny:


Unless, perhaps, Cameron got hold of the infinity stones :noway: …No, that would have to mean he’s almost certainly involved in the Titan submersible implosion, and even if he had the infinity stones, I can’t possibly imagine Cameron being that good of an actor :funny: …he looked genuinely concerned in the CNN interview.


Tue Jun 27, 2023 12:45 pm
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