minimum 100m OW
maximum 200m OW
domestic minimum 400m
domestic maximum 700m
worldwide minimum 1 billion
worldwide maximum 2 billion
regardless it’s going to out perform its arch rival Sonic
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
This will do well but I really can't see much more than 70m opening so I struggle to see much more than 300m |
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| Author: | O [ Sun Oct 09, 2022 1:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
I could see $70M+ opening day. Minions 2 did $107M and the demographic spread on this one is much wider and stronger IP. |
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sun Oct 09, 2022 9:08 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Minions 2 was a sequel. The only animated films original to open more than 70m are Inside Out and Secret Life of Pets. The biggest opening post pandemic for an animated film is 50m. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Sun Oct 09, 2022 9:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
I do not believe being a sequel matters in this debate. The only question that is relevant is "is the IP well known before the movie is released?", and the answer is yes to both The Rise of Gru and Super Mario Bros., so they're definitely comparable. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Sun Oct 09, 2022 11:38 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
minimum 100m OW maximum 200m OW domestic minimum 400m domestic maximum 700m worldwide minimum 1 billion worldwide maximum 2 billion regardless it’s going to out perform its arch rival Sonic
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Sun Oct 09, 2022 3:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Algren wrote: I do not believe being a sequel matters in this debate. The only question that is relevant is "is the IP well known before the movie is released?", and the answer is yes to both The Rise of Gru and Super Mario Bros., so they're definitely comparable. I'm just thinking that while Mario is a bigger brand than Pikachu and Sonic, still none of those films even made 200m domestic. Is Mario really going to double the gross of Sonic and Pikachu? |
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| Author: | Algren [ Sun Oct 09, 2022 9:48 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
zwackerm wrote: Algren wrote: I do not believe being a sequel matters in this debate. The only question that is relevant is "is the IP well known before the movie is released?", and the answer is yes to both The Rise of Gru and Super Mario Bros., so they're definitely comparable. I'm just thinking that while Mario is a bigger brand than Pikachu and Sonic, still none of those films even made 200m domestic. Is Mario really going to double the gross of Sonic and Pikachu? It's a good point, and one I don't really have a reply for - especially Sonic. Detective Pikachu is too far away from being a familiar Pokemon outing, so that shouldn't be in the conversation. But Sonic, yeah, hmm, it did well but perhaps not as well as it could have done. Mario is more popular, regardless, and coming from the animation house behind the Minions brand and being animated (unlike Sonic's live-action) ... I think these matter. They matter in the way that Illumination is big and (with Universal) knows how to sell this style well, and being fully animated is closer to what people expect from the IP. I also believe the Mario world is larger than Sonic. What does Sonic really have once you show Dr. Robotnik, Knuckles, and Tails? I cannot think of a thing. Whereas Mario just seems larger. It has Mario, Luigi, the mushroom/brick world milieu, Donkey Kong, Bowzer, even Wario and Waluigi, not to mention Mario Kart. I think people are excited for it, and it's also got the added opportunity of correcting a past mistake. More high profile voice cast, too. |
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| Author: | O [ Mon Oct 10, 2022 12:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
-Mario video game sales: 760.21 million units (since 1981) -Pokemon 440 million million units (since 1996) -Sonic the Hedgehog 151.41 million (since 1991) Doesn't include arcade or mobile game units. These are from Wikipedia. The 2 main Hollywood Pokemon movies adjust to $150M-160M now. A higher caliber Pokemon movie could probably do better considering how good its sales figures are. Pokemon has more nuances from other revenue stream perspective but the Sonic vs Mario movie potential difference feels a bit more compelling since it's sold 5X more and stayed relevant more consistently. |
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| Author: | Darth Indiana Bond [ Wed Oct 12, 2022 12:16 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Mario is a more universal brand than Pokémon which still has the anime stigma that will always turn off a lot of people |
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| Author: | Rev [ Wed Oct 12, 2022 1:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Darth Indiana Bond wrote: Mario is a more universal brand than Pokémon which still has the anime stigma that will always turn off a lot of people basically MARIO is as well known as Mickey Mouse. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Wed Oct 12, 2022 4:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
A good essay on Mario 
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| Author: | Algren [ Wed Oct 12, 2022 10:12 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Haha, that's gold. |
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| Author: | Barrabás [ Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Rev wrote: Darth Indiana Bond wrote: Mario is a more universal brand than Pokémon which still has the anime stigma that will always turn off a lot of people basically MARIO is as well known as Mickey Mouse. Do small kids even know who Mickey Mouse is these days? What is the last relevant thing Mickey was in? He's not even part of the current Disney brand really. I would say Mario is much more globally famous. Probably the most globally famous character right now alongside Spider-Man. |
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| Author: | MadGez [ Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Barrabás wrote: Rev wrote: Darth Indiana Bond wrote: Mario is a more universal brand than Pokémon which still has the anime stigma that will always turn off a lot of people basically MARIO is as well known as Mickey Mouse. Do small kids even know who Mickey Mouse is these days? What is the last relevant thing Mickey was in? He's not even part of the current Disney brand really. I would say Mario is much more globally famous. Probably the most globally famous character right now alongside Spider-Man. They do know Mickey but have very little attachment to him (or Donald, Pluto etc). In that sense Looney Tunes is more relevant. Mario is far more relevant as they play Mario Kart and other games. Mickey does re-surface for Disney collectables etc. One of the major supermarkets here usually does an annual or bi-annual Disney collectable thing when you spend so much. Almost always broken down into segments: Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar and Disney Animated (which has Mickey in it). The most recent was a few months back. https://www.woolworths.com.au/shop/discover/fix-ems |
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| Author: | lilmac [ Thu Oct 13, 2022 10:26 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
If there are any Mario Kart or Smash Brother scenes this will soar above $300m. I remember the presence of Bowser in Wreck-it-Ralph trailers getting audible reactions in theaters. |
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| Author: | O [ Thu Oct 13, 2022 11:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
lilmac wrote: If there are any Mario Kart or Smash Brother scenes this will soar above $300m. I remember the presence of Bowser in Wreck-it-Ralph trailers getting audible reactions in theaters. My feeling is the best play there would be for them to do a scene at the end of the movie with Mario Kart or everyone getting on vehicles. I feel like it would serve well as a Mario sequel, especially with racing so popular these days they could have a lot of F1 tie ins. They could probably do a scene paying homage to it but would work as a standalone movie. Smash Brothers could easily serve as the 3rd movie as a "multiverse." Mario Party maybe can be #4 and probably a #5 where it's purely sports focused such as tennis and golf. 
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:10 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Darth Indiana Bond wrote: Mario is a more universal brand than Pokémon which still has the anime stigma that will always turn off a lot of people Mario will do very well though. One billion worldwide is very achievable. |
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| Author: | Darth Indiana Bond [ Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:43 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Barrabás wrote: Rev wrote: Darth Indiana Bond wrote: Mario is a more universal brand than Pokémon which still has the anime stigma that will always turn off a lot of people basically MARIO is as well known as Mickey Mouse. Do small kids even know who Mickey Mouse is these days? What is the last relevant thing Mickey was in? He's not even part of the current Disney brand really. I would say Mario is much more globally famous. Probably the most globally famous character right now alongside Spider-Man. Do you you have kids? My son is currently watching Mickey Mouse Clubhouse which is a very popular younger kids show. There is also Mickey Mouse Roadster racers, Mickey Mouse Funhouse, also the Emmy award winning Paul Rudish cartoon series. There are some other series too, but besides Bluey, Mickey Mouse currently rules Disney Junior. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:51 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Barrabás wrote: Rev wrote: Darth Indiana Bond wrote: Mario is a more universal brand than Pokémon which still has the anime stigma that will always turn off a lot of people basically MARIO is as well known as Mickey Mouse. Do small kids even know who Mickey Mouse is these days? What is the last relevant thing Mickey was in? He's not even part of the current Disney brand really. There's a cable channel, don't know if you've ever heard of it, called DISNEY JUNIOR
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| Author: | zwackerm [ Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:01 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Mickey is a television/merch star mainly right now, but literally THE television show little kids watch is Mickey Mouse Clubhouse. Comparing him to Mario though is apples and oranges Mario's games sell well, but buying a video game is not the same as buying a movie ticket. Not everyone who played his games is going to be equally interested in watching the same thing |
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| Author: | Rev [ Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:15 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
zwackerm wrote: Mario's games sell well, but buying a video game is not the same as buying a movie ticket. Not everyone who played his games is going to be equally interested in watching the same thing Bro the nostalgia level of this movie IS HUGE!!! Kids playing Mario in the 80's & 90's & '00s will be flocking to this movie and bringing their families along with them. That alone will be enough for it to gross $1 BILLION!!!! |
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| Author: | Darth Indiana Bond [ Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:17 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Mario is probably the only icon in the world that measures up to the Mouse. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Darth Indiana Bond wrote: Mario is probably the only icon in the world that measures up to the Mouse. I can't think of another one off top of my head. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:54 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
A Mickey Mouse movie needs to happen. I bet they do in 2028 for hundred year anniversary. |
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| Author: | O [ Sat Oct 15, 2022 12:35 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions |
Guess Fantastia and Fantasia 2000 were supposed to be those. He's too much of a cash cow for Disney. They probably haven't given a full theatrical to avoid any potential for hurting the brand since he's so central for them. |
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