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Super Mario Bros. predictions
https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89565		 Page 5 of 6
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Mar 12, 2023 7:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
That makes sense re: 12am. That way they can get the extra day for previews without having to give discount tuesday prices.

And honestly I love the idea of seeing this at midnight with a bunch of nerds and no children. I wish Disney would do the same for Elemental.
Author:  O [ Fri Mar 17, 2023 3:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
First tracking coming out for Mario is very conservative at $85M-90M 5day.

Likely to be a whole big larger. What's very positive is it's currently strong with both boys and girls under 12 equally, is great with families and strong with the gamer group of guys under 25.

So it's already looking like its going to be an all quadrant film and very promising gender split of kids is the same so essentially going to be must see viewing for lots of families.

I think this early tracking at least sets the floor here for $200M+. It will be much more but a good floor to start at. March box office feels like a teaser for the main event.

https://deadline.com/2023/03/super-mari ... 235301498/
Author:  mark66 [ Wed Mar 29, 2023 10:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
The German Kinopolis chain has added a nice touch to their pre-sale pages:
Author:  zwackerm [ Thu Mar 30, 2023 12:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
Review embargo doesn’t lift till 3pm ESt day before release. I can’t imagine this will be much better than a standard Illumination film.

However, no matter how crap an Illumination film is, they almost always make lots of money anyway
Author:  Thegun [ Thu Mar 30, 2023 2:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
Pratt has been doing so much damage control over the voice, hard not to see backlash over that anyone over the age of 7. Still can’t tell is this going to be more like the Peanuts. I wish Scoob opened in theaters, but I think this can do Lego movie numbers
Author:  Mau [ Thu Mar 30, 2023 4:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
I don't think Nintendo would allow them to release a shitty Mario movie.

This could very well be their first try into movie franchises. Imagine what a Legend of Zelda or a Kirby movie could do?

And then they tie it all into a Smash Bros. Crossover movie? Dear god. Nintendo the New Marvel plz
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Thu Mar 30, 2023 6:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
Presales are at blockbuster level. Wednesday is looking like 20m+ with great sales over the weekend. I am seeing 130m over 5 days for now. But it could go higher depending on how reviews are.
Author:  Steve [ Thu Mar 30, 2023 7:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
Yeah my estimation of this movie’s potential has definitely been ratcheting up.

When was the last time an animated movie won the yearly BO?
Author:  zwackerm [ Thu Mar 30, 2023 7:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
Steve wrote:
Yeah my estimation of this movie’s potential has definitely been ratcheting up.

When was the last time an animated movie won the yearly BO?


Toy Story 3
Author:  Steve [ Thu Mar 30, 2023 7:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Toy Story 3

nice. Just remembered Incredibles 2, crazy that a $608m domestic gross was only good enough for #3 that year.
Author:  Steve [ Thu Mar 30, 2023 7:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
edit: oops
Author:  Steve [ Thu Mar 30, 2023 7:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
Regarding Mario, I think I’m in the $400m+ camp, but am not expecting great reviews. Maybe like 70% RT and 55-60 MC
Author:  Darth Indiana Bond [ Tue Apr 04, 2023 8:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
Yeah, the Embargo situation makes me think Illumination strikes again with another subpar animated film that focuses more on gags than telling a good story.
Author:  MadGez [ Tue Apr 04, 2023 9:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
A gross between $300 to $350m for this seems about right but let's see.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Tue Apr 04, 2023 1:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
I am seeing about 150m in 5 days. I think reviews will stink but it wont matter to its core audience. I think families and mario fans will take it to 400m domestic and around 900m WW. China is looking like a non-starter and so 1B without china breakout is hard.
Author:  Rev [ Tue Apr 04, 2023 2:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
MadGez wrote:
A gross between $300 to $350m for this seems about right but let's see.

5-day opening WorldWide?? yah of course ;)
Author:  Darth Indiana Bond [ Tue Apr 04, 2023 5:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
Reviews are bad. The movie appears to be hollow, which is a shame as many of Mario RPG storylines have such character to them and Nintendo trusted a subpar animation studio with their product, might still do well thanks to a very successful advertising campaign which included hiding how bad the movie actually ended up being.
Author:  Barrabás [ Tue Apr 04, 2023 6:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
Mau wrote:
I don't think Nintendo would allow them to release a shitty Mario movie.

This could very well be their first try into movie franchises. Imagine what a Legend of Zelda or a Kirby movie could do?

And then they tie it all into a Smash Bros. Crossover movie? Dear god. Nintendo the New Marvel plz


Whoever gets Zelda right is sitting on a billion dollar franchise. Easily the biggest untapped fantasy IP out there.
Author:  Barrabás [ Tue Apr 04, 2023 6:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
I think bad reviews will limit its appeal to nostalgic older geeks, but I don't think it will do anything for family audiences. They didn't care about Minions 3 or whatever being rotten.

But it's a pity because if they had also made it an emotionally resonant film (something that always lacked in the Mario games with some notable exceptions like Paper Mario 2) it really could've been the start of something special.

Just speculating here, but perhaps this is Nintendo's fault if they wanted to keep the plot really basic just like the games instead of adding more layers to the characters. What would a Pixar Mario movie be about? But then again, is there really a way to turn the Bowser-kidnaps-Peach plot into something complex and profound?
Author:  Thegun [ Tue Apr 04, 2023 6:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
55% after 77 reviews, looks like anyone under 10 will like it. Doesn’t bode well for sequels, but dam, this should have been a slam dunk, you know it’s a bad sign when all the press is defending the bad decisions they made
Author:  neo_wolf [ Tue Apr 04, 2023 6:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
The bad reviews wont affect the big opening it will have, but i do think legs will be bad.
Author:  Shack [ Tue Apr 04, 2023 7:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
I think it's fine. I'm expecting it to be enjoyable.
Author:  Darth Indiana Bond [ Tue Apr 04, 2023 8:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
We all knew when Illuminations got their hands on this, they’d dunk it in a shallow bath of slaptick soaked mediocrity pieced together by 8-but fused references and throw away jokes that will be dated the moment they get a whiff of fresh air.
Author:  Mau [ Wed Apr 05, 2023 1:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
This will still slay box office. I couldnt find ticjets for tomorrow in any theater close to me.
Author:  Darth Indiana Bond [ Wed Apr 05, 2023 9:26 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Super Mario Bros. predictions
The marketing has been legendary
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