General question for group discussion...

How bad does the MCU have to get to for Iger to boot Feige?

I think too much of the existing casts have loved Feige and MCU fanbase but if commercially the movies start losing Disney more and more money, could it get to that point?

To Disney's relief (and WB's) they'll be able to point to the other comic book movie disappointing as a reason why their movie disappointed (ie industry superhero fatigue) vs just being movies people didn't want to see or bad execution. I can see Aquaman also look better if Marvels flops and then Aquaman slightly overperformers a $200M total vs a $100-150M total for Marvels will make Aquaman look like a season "winner" even if its down significantly from it's predecessor.

Aquaman has an escape latch with the holidays and can benefit from Marvels disappointing but Marvels is going to get the brunt of bad press its looking like if it can't turn around in time.

I feel like the DC side also collapsing shows it’s bigger than MCU/Feige, though maybe MCU’s average quality post Endgame, tv show spamming and running out of heroes and ideas contributed to the whole thing sinking. I think the superhero genre needs to evolve, maybe become postmodern like how The Boys is popular right now. It would be a good time to recycle Watchmen again maybe.

Good, god. When are you gonna give up on pre sales projections, you've been wildly wrong consistently for 3 years now (Way too many factors, this isn't money ball.) You're usually in the 53-65% accuracy on the low end. You'd be better off throwing a dart at ranges and still get the same accuracy. I mean you were sure Swifty was gonna hit 150+ , 35 million for flowers, etc. I'm sorry to tell you this Keyser, you're always wrong, by a wide margin. But to be honest, You might be worse than comingsoon predictions, which are the absolute worst at the momebt,

Your pre sales tips are shit. I feel good I predicted 93 for Eras just on old school facts.I guess we will see on Freddy and Marvels, I say either commit (Your margins are way too big) Sorry if this is dickish, (Bring on the three instances you were right)

Idk, I think Keyser’s been pretty accurate, other than concert films breaking him due to being a whole different level of pre sales. Off the top of my head he was on top of Indy flopping and Guardians opening being moderately disappointing, and saw Barbie breakout coming although may could.

Also Keyser doesn't owe us anything. It's nice of him to share the presales data he gets access to.

Box office has a range of data points and so its part of that.

There is nothing to defend. If I could perfectly predict data weeks ahead based on a sample, I would bet instead of posting it here. Eras was extreme case of frontloading. By the release week I could see it open around 100m(I had posted the same in weekend prediction thread for week before last).Its a genre in itself and that too scale of which may not even happen for Renaissance. Otherwise trend of something wont be that far off. You can see a breakout weeks ahead and an underperformance also at similar timeframe. Shack above listed some of it. I could see Mario break out as well close to release but magnitude was still stunning. Walkups were simply out of the world. Indy 5 disappointing was crystal clear after day 2 of presales when it dropped 90%+ from already disappointing day 1.

MCU movies I have tracked in past 2 years have been fairly predictable. There is clear comps and its crystal clear Marvels has been performing terribly in comps with other movies. Not just data I could see but many other trackers/industry analysts. Look at this post in twitter.


https://twitter.com/Luiz_Fernando_J/sta ... 0259990789



Even I am not that negative.

I am grateful for Keyser’s presales info as well.

Marvels screamed flop the moment they announced the bizarre body switching the plot with those two nobodies.

There is some chatter in internet that.



I am amazed its generating the buzz but I will see how much it helps with ticket sales.

Because of the multiverse - these cameos are cheap. I don't think it will help much.

One would think the way certain franchise ended, they would not touch it with a barge pole. But that does not seem to be the true. Especially when you look at the biggest movie they will release in next year or so. There was no nostalgia for keaton coming back as bats at all. Why would there be any for a franchise that went on rock bottom.

He really isn’t, he’s no coming soon.net mind you, lol. I think it’s a great pool of data , but to use it for straight predictions (using it as “oh it can go from 60-110” without taking into account demographic, type of film, time of the month, etc. it’s more of a novelty. He had guardians disappointing at at sub 90 mind you. Sorry Keyser, It’s in the 60-80% usually. But I do think there is merit to the data. Sorry keyser for venting. I do think there is a secret sauce formula in there

FYI I did not predict Guardians to open sub 90m. Early presales did indicate it was below Ant-man but I expected it to go up considering Gunn was directing it. Even in the Monthly game from Shack I predicted 111m or so. its previews came around the ballpark of what I expected. Its OW went above my expectations as WOM was even stronger and Disney did throw the kitchen sink in down early fan screenings a week before release which is something they had not done for years. Even pulled forward reviews by few days.

That said there is no perfect formula to predictions. You can only predict break outs or disappointments. Guardians was quite clear a disappointment considering Guardians 2 opened around 143 in 2017 and with all inflation plus really strong reviews/WOM it opened considerably lower. That showed the state of MCU.

Let us see how far Marvels go down. I am still bit skeptical it will go as low as what presales indicate today(sub 60m) but its not hitting 75m. That is a humongous drop from 1st movie and unprecendented drop for a MCU sequel which has no streaming impact as well. its not just me. Tracking is going down.

https://twitter.com/EmpireCityBO/status ... 1732415868


BO.com is saying 45-67m !!! having dropped 9% from the numbers from last week.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range ... -napoleon/

Marvels presale data from other countries.

Mexico


Brazil



Australia

Am I reading it correctly that it sold 12 tickets at 1 theater report from Brazil, or 12 total tickets across the country of 200M?

I'll buy 12 tickets in Brazil and double it's sales if that's the case.

These are few theaters in a city but it selling so badly in relation to most movies this year shows how far hype has fallen. If it was not MCU, I would predict even lower for this movie. But I feel it should pick up close to release. That said its drop from 1st movie would be among the biggest ever. Alice 2 is probably the worst and 1st one benefited from 3D hype of Avatar in early 2010. This one benefited from Endgame Hype in 2019 but considering its legs back then, its going to be even more shocking.

I feel like this will have a 55/135 run.

Will give Incredible Hulk a run for worst MCU gross unadjusted.

Empire is saying $45M. How low can this go?

He is talking about where it is based on current state. I dont see it finish that low. it will sell better than 45m opener close to release. I dont see it finish that low even with Quantumania level reviews.
That said we could see 8m previews/60m OW kind of OW. Best case could be 10/75m if reviews are solid and buzz picks up.

Empire has Marvels I think at $48M now.

Missing $50M would ring huge alarm bells for sure.

So AMC is starting mystery screenings next week and the runtime listed is close to the Marvels... lol I may go just to see what movie it is.

... ok I see the tickets are $5 so doubt its Marvels lol

According to a Variety article, The Marvels was really the first time that Marvel Studios did test screenings in TX, which they typically only did with Disney employees and their families.

Reception was not good. As bad as Marvels is seems like Majors is the biggest issue considering their entire phase was anchored around him.

I am actually eagerly anticipating this box office run now to see how bad it gets. Previews, opening day, weekend, second weekend hold, oh its going to be something.

Aquaman lucked out so much on this one if Marvels does end up becoming a massive clunker.

https://variety.com/2023/film/features/ ... 235774940/

The tidbit about making Blade into a female led film where he’s supporting

At T-8 its looking like missing 50m.

At the biggest MTC which is driven by subscribers, its doing the best which is around 62% of Guardians 3 at similar point and this is where Guardians took off big time.

at other 2 big MTC its under 1/3rd of Guardians !!!! In fact rest of the market looks like it wont even hit 6m previews and looking at around 40m OW. I am thinking 7m previews/50m OW at this point.

Every overseas number also is looking awful. at Korea which should be its best market considering it has a korean star its under half of Guardians 3 which looking like having a bad start at this point but due to WOM had a great run towards 5m admits. This in comp with Ant man 3 is also at half of that movie. Ant 3 finished under 1.5m admits with terrible WOM.

Mexico is looking terrible. This has been among the best markets for MCU and its looking like having the worst OW like for ever.

Update courtesy carlagonz@bot

I'll bet RDJ makes an appearance in the next Xmen movie. At this rate, he may even show up in Deadpool 3!