The Little Mermaid was semi-announced way back in 2016, though since Lin-Manuel Miranda was busy with Mary Poppins Returns, it didn't really get off the ground until 2019, when most of the cast was announced, including Halle Bailey starring as Ariel, Jonah Hauer-King as Prince Eric, Javier Bardem as King Triton, Jacob Tremblay as Flounder, Daveed Diggs as Sebastian, and Melissa McCarthy as Ursula. Filming was set to start in 2020 and they were likely going to do the VFX in 2021, so it's possible this film would've been the May 27, 2022 release since Cruella was moved from December 2020 to May 28, 2021. However, as we all know, COVID delayed several films, and this film's production was put on hold, but now it's been finished and is set for release on May 26, 2023.

This is an interesting film to track as it is the only one of the Disney live-action remakes with a legitimate chance to become the highest-grossing film of the year (BatB was the highest-grossing film of 2017 until TLJ; while TLK stayed at #2). It may not have the highest-grossing opening for 2023 (I predict GOTG3 or The Marvels will take that honor), but a Memorial Day release means it can leg out over the whole summer like Aladdin.

Opening Weekend:
The Little Mermaid probably won't have the highest opening of 2023, but it will take the bronze medal for 2023 openings (I predict $175M for GOTG3 and $160M for The Marvels) with $135.1M for the 3-day and $160.8M for the 4-day, which would be a Memorial Day record.

Domestic Total:
While I do predict 'Mermaid' to break Top Gun: Maverick's record, it's not going to hold nearly as well. The movie and its holds so far are a once-in-a-lifetime experience. Still, despite competition from 'Across the Spider-Verse' and Pixar's 'Elemental', 'Mermaid' should play well as the dominant family film of the summer and finish with $486.3M.

Overseas and Worldwide:
Many Disney films have been banned in China, however that shouldn't affect The Little Mermaid too bad. Beauty and the Beast made $674M OS and $1.178B worldwide without China, while Aladdin made $642M OS and $997M worldwide without China. Both films made over $100M+ in Japan, so as long as The Little Mermaid follows suit, it can be a candidate for $1B. In other words, unlike movies like GOTG3, Mission: Impossible- Dead Reckoning Part One, and The Marvels, The Little Mermaid doesn't necessarily need China for $1B. I predict $648.8M OS and $1.135B worldwide.

The Takeaway:
Expect The Little Mermaid to be among the Top 5 highest-grossing films of 2023, with a legitimate chance of taking the #1 crown.

I think it will underperform and open well under 100 million

I'd lean towards this being huge but it depends on how it looks

With good marketing, I could see 400m. The original has sold far more home media than Aladdin and I think is in general a highly regarded film.

This is gonna be big unless it looks absolutely awful. But then again Aladdin's marketing was not good but luckily the film was good.

minimum $125m OW / $500m Domestic / $1 Billion WW

It's going to perform similar to BATB & TLK

I think the Disney brand is leas popular now than even a couple of years ago. If this looks like another movie with forced diversity, which Disney has gotten a reputation for (right or wrong), then I expect numbers closer to Lightyear, especially if Disney Plus still plays a facter

I'd say it has a better chance to open to 175m than close with sub 125m

Lol yeah this has no correlation to Lightyear. If this disappoints its cause Disney stupidly killed their theatrical windows for D+ and it'll probably cost them hundreds of millions.

Thing is…they might

Quality is really important here. If reviews are anything short of great/excellent, and audience reception is lackluster, I can see it really disappointing. And I say this as a big fan of the animated film. I just feel that Disney is in a position where audiences are being very "picky" with them now, and are willing to wait the 40/50 days to watch a film on Disney+ if there is something they see as "unworthy" of spending money to see it in theaters. Just my perspective.

Some guy at my Thor 4 showing yelled "that's the fat crazy bitch!" (which only drew laugher from the audience...) when McCarthy made her short cameo. I like McCarthy, and am excited to see what she does in the role, but some seem to have problems with her, or rather internal problems themselves (recall a lot of backlash as a lead in Ghostbusters), so her casting might be a deterrent to some groups of people. *shrug*

Only the Jungle Book has received great reviews out of the disney remakes, and maybe Cinderella. Reviews on par with Aladdin are good enough

The underwater special effects look groundbreaking. Thinking this will be on par with Lion King and BATB remakes.

A black Ariel will affect it too much for it to reach those heights. They should drop it on Disney+ to avoid embarrassment.

Hahahaha

Nah this is gonna do gangbusters. Like on par or even bigger than BatB.

She’s so light skinned you probably won’t even be able to tell she’s black until she’s a human on land in the sun.

It won't get that far. Everyone and their grandmother will know she's black before they buy tickets to another movie.

How anyone could not know this woman is black until she's on land in the sun is pretty laughable.

Bah, who cares. She looks nice. I'm not convinced the racist bombing will stop this from doing numbers domestically. Will probably impact its overseas numbers more, though, we'll see. But the extreme racist bombing didn't stop Rings of Power and I don't think it will stop this.

OMG! it looks great This is going to make a lot of $$$$.
Looking forward to taking my niece to see it

It looks very good from the teaser. I'll see it.

The racial backlash will help if anything.


But if Ariel kisses a girl then this movie is toast.

The actress playing Ariel is stunning, good grief. Cheekbones will be potent marketing tool.

I don’t think it will beat Aladdin let alone TLK/BatB however it should still be a big hit - something like $250m.

Yeah, I'm not quite that low, but I'm certainly not going for the TLK/BatB level either which most people seem to be expecting. I think it can do $275-$325 million. I just don't have much confidence in Disney recently and in the American public regarding the casting.