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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 37995
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
The actress looking comically like a Disney princess may make people accept it more
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Sat Sep 10, 2022 11:44 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
Algren wrote: Yeah, I'm not quite that low, but I'm certainly not going for the TLK/BatB level either which most people seem to be expecting. I think it can do $275-$325 million. I just don't have much confidence in Disney recently and in the American public regarding the casting. My thought is that Disney will probably rush it to Disney+ and hence it's legs will be cut short. Otherwise, it should hit $300m.
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Sun Sep 11, 2022 6:14 am |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
Going to be massive. $500+ mil domestic, easily.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Mon Sep 12, 2022 12:09 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32104 Location: the last free city
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
MadGez wrote: Algren wrote: Yeah, I'm not quite that low, but I'm certainly not going for the TLK/BatB level either which most people seem to be expecting. I think it can do $275-$325 million. I just don't have much confidence in Disney recently and in the American public regarding the casting. My thought is that Disney will probably rush it to Disney+ and hence it's legs will be cut short. Otherwise, it should hit $300m. I hate the 45 day rule. Hopefully this movie opens huge AND has great legs so Disney will keep it in theaters for more than 45 days. It'll probably top $500m domestic before that deadline anyways #fingerscrossed
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Mon Sep 12, 2022 1:08 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3129
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
$130/$330m
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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Thu Sep 15, 2022 6:19 am |
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Algren
now we know
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:31 pm Posts: 67041
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
The trailer's reception has been polarizing. I'm not sure to what degree, but it's mixed for sure. Well, I suppose I shouldn't the trailer's reception. We all know it's because they've blackwashed a beloved white character. It's the most controversy I've seen around a casting choice this late in the game that I can remember.
I'm also not sure how fringe the backlash is (or even how true it is; is it just for clicks? is it just for memes?), but I've seen a lot reporting and memes about the like-dislike ratio for the trailer (1.2 million dislikes compared to a couple hundred thousand likes). But I thought dislikes were now hidden on YouTube, so I'm not sure how believable those reports are. I've also seen the high view count, so people are interested - I suppose that could be genuine interest and interest spurred from the controversy. There's also generally been a lot of comments about it on social media - positive and negative.
There's also been a certain amount of damage management from Disney. They got the original voice artist (who is a white woman) to come out and say how fabulous the new casting is, so that might suggest how worried Disney is about the backlash.
I'm not sure how to digest and calculate it all to make a prediction. But one thing is for sure, gone are the days when social media chatter didn't reflect a film's consensus and impact a film's box office. I suppose I'll just keep my original prediction of $275-$325 million as that already included lower takings due to the backlash.
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Thu Sep 15, 2022 6:58 am |
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Cynosure
The Dark Knight
Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2015 7:30 am Posts: 760
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
Dislikes were hidden on Youtube but apps were released allowing you to see them anyway.
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Thu Sep 15, 2022 8:23 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 37995
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
I moved the last few posts to the political forum
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Thu Sep 15, 2022 2:08 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20345 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
The majority of people probably would've preferred an actress that more closely resembled the original character, but they'll probably still shell out their money when the time comes
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Thu Sep 15, 2022 2:11 pm |
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Chippy
KJ's Leading Pundit
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 4:45 pm Posts: 63026 Location: Tonight... YOU!
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
The "redhead" issue has far more legs than the "race swapping" issue. Both are dumb and made up controversies, and the movie will be fine. (if good)
All bets are off if the movie is bad.
_________________trixster wrote: shut the fuck up zwackerm, you're out of your fucking element trixster wrote: chippy is correct
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Thu Sep 15, 2022 3:21 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3129
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
Likes 848K
Dislikes 2.1M
Yikes. That's a lot of dislikes. I'm black and I have two young daughters. We'll be there opening weekend but because we're fans of the IP (and my goodness, is that actress gorgeous). I get the controversy (i typically align that way). But bringing it back to the boxoffice, as Chippy said, if the movie is bad it'll tank. If it's decent, I do think families will show up, despite the vocal contingent, and we'll see a $300M+ domestic gross.
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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Thu Sep 15, 2022 5:20 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20345 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
No trailer tonight apparently
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Sun Feb 12, 2023 10:18 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6139 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
I think the backlash exists because in many other cases white actors have been criticized for playing non-white roles, so now that they're doing the opposite it feels unfair. In an ideal world it wouldn't matter, I mean she's a mythological creature in the ocean. She's not even human. I feel like if this had come out in the 2000s no one would've cared, like how that Brandy Cinderella movie was released and there was no blacklash AFAIK. Something changed when it comes to the media and race in the last ten years.
What really people should be mad about is that this is a story about a girl who literally gives up her voice to be with a man and is ultimately rewarded for it. The original fairy tale is much better as a cautionary tale against that since Ariel dies.
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Sat Feb 18, 2023 9:42 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
I'm usually against all the race changing of well known existing characters i.e. Bond or Superman
However, I think it's not an issue here. The actress looks the part and it is a mermaid after all.
I still think it will be a big hit. $300m is certainly on the cards.
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Sun Feb 19, 2023 10:52 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11517
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
I think there's enough of a curiosity factor at this point since it seems we've been hearing about it since casting that people will show up OW The bigger issue imo is fierce competition week 2 on. With the May long weekend it was already frontloaded but families are going to have a lot of options. 2nd weekend: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - First was universally acclaimed. It's going to vastly overperform. 3rd weekend: Strays (animated dog comedy with Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx) + Transformers 4th weekend: Elemental I'm a little surprised how close Disney put a Pixar movie to their animated re-imagining. As a reminder, we have a 16 week gap earlier in the year with no family movies between Puss and Mario so really just lots of studios wanting to max out on summer weekdays.
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Sun Feb 19, 2023 11:12 pm |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32104 Location: the last free city
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
Rev wrote: minimum $125m OW / $500m Domestic / $1 Billion WW
It's going to perform similar to BATB & TLK *UPDATE* 185m OW 640m Dom 1.5b WW
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Mon Feb 20, 2023 3:38 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
O wrote: I think there's enough of a curiosity factor at this point since it seems we've been hearing about it since casting that people will show up OW The bigger issue imo is fierce competition week 2 on. With the May long weekend it was already frontloaded but families are going to have a lot of options. 2nd weekend: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - First was universally acclaimed. It's going to vastly overperform. 3rd weekend: Strays (animated dog comedy with Will Ferrell and Jamie Foxx) + Transformers 4th weekend: Elemental I'm a little surprised how close Disney put a Pixar movie to their animated re-imagining. As a reminder, we have a 16 week gap earlier in the year with no family movies between Puss and Mario so really just lots of studios wanting to max out on summer weekdays. Studios are idiotic. Had no idea Strays was an animated film. Could it out-gross Transformers? That is some solid competition. Agree, Spider-man is poised to be quite big. I didn't love it as most seem to but I can see why it's popular. Should be good for $250m at least. Also - don't' forget the Flash opens the same weekend as Elemental...
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Mon Feb 20, 2023 6:01 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 37995
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
Strays is not animated, it has a trailer out and looks pretty funny
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Mon Feb 20, 2023 6:04 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22680 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
Thanks. Just watched it and it has a red band trailer lol.
Actually, a good thing that it's an adult film which should help it stand out. Reminds me a little of Ted.
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Mon Feb 20, 2023 6:13 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6166
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Re: Your predictions for The Little Mermaid?
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
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Tue Feb 21, 2023 1:53 am |
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