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July 1-4 Predictions
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Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Jun 24, 2022 8:30 am ]
Post subject:  July 1-4 Predictions
Minions: The Rise of Gru- 52/59
Mr. Malcolm's List- depends on theater count

Elvis- -45%
The Black Phone- -40%
Top Gun- -15%
Lightyear- -45%
Jurassic World- -35%
Author:  Rev [ Fri Jun 24, 2022 9:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
Minions: The Rise of Gru- 70/85

4 day wknd:
Top Gun Maverick +15%
Elvis -10%
Jurassic World -15%
The Black Phone -25%
Lightyear -30%
Author:  zwackerm [ Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
I hope Elvis hold well this weekend. Really loved it.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
I think Minions is a much easier sell than Lightyear. You've got cute nonsense from the minions themselves plus Gru as a kid. I predicted $70M in the game but wouldn't be too surprised if it went even higher.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Wed Jun 29, 2022 1:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
Minions presales suddenly has gone kray. I am thinking 100m over 4 days now. Late bloomer but it has really increased in a way I have not seen for any movie recently.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
LOL if Minions does big #s. This just shows how Disney+ really hurt their animation box office.
Author:  zwackerm [ Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
Elvis overtook Top Gun Maverick today. Is there a reason for that or can we expect a crazy hold for Elvis this weekend? Its Tuesday number suggests a 20m+second weekend.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Wed Jun 29, 2022 4:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
publicenemy#1 wrote:
LOL if Minions does big #s. This just shows how Disney+ really hurt their animation box office.


Chapek did screw up brand value of Pixar in taking their animation movies direct to D+ over past 2 years. It was ok to do it for Soul(though looking at past BO for Docter movies, they should have delayed it to 2021) but stupid to do it beyond that when theaters were open. I am not sure if Pixar can recover to pre pandemic levels as expectations have been built in that they will be available on D+.
Author:  O [ Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
I was trying to look for a film to extrapolate Elvis's Tuesday gross to 4day weekend with and went with Wonderwoman. Very different films but appeal to older female audiences and also wasn't WW's OW. WW also had a 5day July long weekend but perhaps being the second weekend for Elvis can extrapolate a 4day from it. Not much to go from though.

If it follow's WW's Tuesday daily to weekend, Elvis will see a 4-day of about $32.47M.

Ironically, DM3 opened that weekend to $72M which feels good for Minions 2 though I see it higher.
Author:  Shack [ Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
Keyser Söze wrote:
Minions presales suddenly has gone kray. I am thinking 100m over 4 days now. Late bloomer but it has really increased in a way I have not seen for any movie recently.


How's Thor presales doing? Still lukewarm?
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
Shack wrote:
Keyser Söze wrote:
Minions presales suddenly has gone kray. I am thinking 100m over 4 days now. Late bloomer but it has really increased in a way I have not seen for any movie recently.


How's Thor presales doing? Still lukewarm?


Definitely well below DS2. its like 65% of DS2 at AMC and 55% at Cinemark. Worse the pace is still not there and we dont have a catalyst until next week. Plus early reactions dont look like Ragnarok level reviews.

But one can never count out MCU. DS2 numbers were uber strong as trailers kind of played it like it was NWH sequel while it was Wandavision sequel !!! So for Thor to not be that crazy in itself not that bad. Let us see where things stand once reviews are out.

For now I am thinking 25m previews and 140-150m OW.
Author:  O [ Thu Jun 30, 2022 5:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
Wed #'s are interesting with TGM back on top. I'm feeling TGM is primed up for the July 4th weekend and think its Wed hold is a great sign. As of today its now #13 on the all time domestic list and seems like it has a lot more left!

1 (2) Top Gun: Maverick $4,305,954 -9% -21% 3,948 $1,091 $534,469,160 34

2 (1) Elvis $4,010,762 -24% 3,906 $1,027 $44,742,770 6

3 (3) Jurassic World: Dominion $3,033,995 -23% -44% 4,233 $717 $313,458,340 20

4 (4) The Black Phone $2,711,800 -16% 3,150 $861 $32,630,055 6

5 (5) Lightyear $2,281,639 -24% -46% 4,255 $536 $97,180,826 13
Author:  MadGez [ Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
For context - here in Oz Minions has made more in its OW than Lightyear did in it's first 11 days...
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri Jul 01, 2022 12:41 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
Looking like 9m previews for the yellow monsters and probably around 110m over 4 days. Crazy OW for sure.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri Jul 01, 2022 2:02 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
Wowwwwww. Welp go Universal
Author:  Algren [ Fri Jul 01, 2022 5:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
A few things make me happy about this weekend's theatre counts. The first is that Sonic the Hedgehog 2 is still listed. I was worried that this Thursday's gross will be its last, but if it's in the list then it'll have numbers for at least another seven days, which is in line with the other Paramount title, The Lost City. I guess their limit is 91 days. I'm kind of obsessing over Sonic's box office in the hope that it will push my draft to $400 million without a new movie opening, but it's looking unlikely. I've got another $300k to make with the one film - don't they do dollar runs anymore?!?? :grrr:

The next thing is that Top Gun: Maverick is still in over 3,800 cinemas in its sixth weekend. It's in more cinemas than many movies that opened after it; Jurassic World: Dominion, The Black Phone, Lightyear. So that's pleasing. I'm really rooting for it to have a huge Independence Day weekend.

Lastly, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness is finally having a big drop. It has been lingering for too long. It needed to shift showtimes to more worthy titles.
Author:  Algren [ Fri Jul 01, 2022 5:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
Theatre counts for anybody wondering:

    Minions: The Rise of Gru 4,391 NEW
    Elvis 3,932 +26
    Top Gun: Maverick 3,808 -140
    Jurassic World: Dominion 3,801 -432
    Lightyear 3,800 -455
    The Black Phone 3,156 +6
    Mr. Malcolm's List 1,384 NEW
    Everything Everywhere All At Once 600 +76
    Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness 590 -1,265
    The Bad Guys 535 -498
    The Bob’s Burgers Movie 275 -315
    Downton Abbey: A New Era 269 -476
    Sonic the Hedgehog 2 114 -120
    Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song 3 NEW
    Clara Sola 1 NEW
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
Really can't fathom why Minions is having a bigger opening than DM3, when DM2 had much better WOM than Minions, and still dropped significantly seemingly due to Minions brand dilution.
Author:  Shack [ Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
I think DM3 might have underperformed a bit.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
Friday PS is crazy. Thinking 3 day 100m can happen at this rate. Probably will hit 40m friday with previews. Let us see how the day goes.
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Jul 01, 2022 11:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
Really bizarre Minions will do not far below the first film. I guess this franchise is critic proof like Jurassic. Wonder why DM3 didn't do better.
Author:  O [ Fri Jul 01, 2022 11:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
DM2 was 2 years after Minions 1 but after 5 years in the franchise seems to have given the franchise wiggle room.

The most hilarious in all of this is how much worse LY looks. All the spin about having the biggest pandemic weekend for family films since they aren't showing up as much goes out the window.

Sing 2 did $162M during the omicron wave so makes me think if they waited a year it could have possibly done $250M+ like this first one.

Also, Elvis did $3,575,000 on Thursday.
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri Jul 01, 2022 4:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
Thinking 105m for Minions, 24m for Top Gun and 21m for Elvis. 15m for JW and 10m for Lightyear. 12-13m for Black phone
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri Jul 01, 2022 4:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
Its crazy when you are optimistic based on presales and movie goes even higher. Minions is definitely one of a kind. friday is motoring on for sure. Shawn@BO.com is saying 43m early estimate but I can see 35m true friday.
Author:  O [ Fri Jul 01, 2022 5:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: July 1-4 Predictions
LY dropped 58.3% on Thursday for just $1.6M ($98.78M total). Funny how they'll both pass $100M over the same weekend. A few numbers below:

Lightyear
Budget $200M
OW $50.6M
Box office $125M domestic?
Overseas $64.1M so far
Rotten Tomatoes 75%
Audience Score 85%

Minions 2
Budget $85M
OW $110M
Box office $300M domestic?
Overseas $4.1 M so far
Rotten Tomatoes 70%
Audience score 93%
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