Lightyear- 95m

Jurassic World- -60%
Top Gun -20%

Yeah I think Lightyear will top 100m Toy Story/Pixar fans will show up in droves

Lightyear 100-125m
JW:D -67%
TG:M -35%

Will there be enough fan rush for Dominion to drop 67%? Thinking a muted opening weekend plus keeping premium screens will make a drop much larger than 60% difficult.

It'll lose some premium screens to Lightyear for sure. If the cinemascore is B or lower the drop might hit 70%

JW is keeping the premium screens in the evening, Lightyear is getting the matinees I believe

JW3 will also have Fathers Day to help cushion its drop - the first JW also had Fathers Day in its second weekend and it managed to have one of the biggest 2nd Sundays of all time ($38.4M!). Granted, it might be the second pick for dads this year after Maverick, but if those screenings are sold out...

I've never been less excited for a Pixar opening. Feels like Cars 3, but that ended up being a really good movie so maybe Lightyear will surprise me. But has Disney made people too comfortable with watching Pixar on the small screen? How many families will just wait the 30-45 days? I'm sure it will be up as soon as Miss Marvel ends.

Movie theaters are still one of the cheaper ways to get the kids out of the house and distracted (hence why War with Grandpa and Croods 2 were among the bigger performers pre-vaccine), so i think there is always still a market for kids. The problem is that studios have been so streaming-focused the last few years, and since family films have been the biggest streaming hits (since kids love to watch movies over and over) they've neglected how much money is being left on the table by putting it in theaters first (the legs for Sing 2 and Bad Guys show as much).

All that said, I seem to be one of the more pessimistic predictors for Lightyear. Even with the slight Toy Story tie-in I think any opening over $60 million should be viewed as a big success, considering Sing 2 remains the only animated movie to make over $100M in the last two years. Would love to see it go higher though!

It’s a tough one. I’m leaning to a big (90m-ish) opening just because it’s (a) TS related (b) Pixar on the big screen and (C ) the first big animated movie to come out now that the BO is healthy again.

That said I feel the buzz isn’t quite there and anecdotally we are taking the boys to see it OW for my youngest sons birthday. He’s excited BUT indicated he’d be happy to swap for Minions if that was released a week or so earlier so hmmm.

Looks like TGM's per theater average drop was about -35.2% with the improved Sunday figure. With Father's Day and the empty market, still think we'll see a sensational 4th weekend, perhaps $36.6M for a 30% 3day drop.

If it holds decently in week 5, with the July 4th holiday potential bump, could we see 6 straight weekends above $20M? If TGM manages to do that it would only be the third movie of all time to achieve 6 straight weekends above $20M after opening along with Avatar and Titanic.

I hope it pulls it off.

Looking at sunday drop, we know it will continue to have crazy strong holds. Its making 600m+ domestic and 600m OS for 1.2B.

And Lightyear reviews are mixed. Thinking it won't affect OW but it will probably suffer big against the family movies coming in July

I'm an avid fan of Pixar and have even enjoyed the Cars sequels but I'm just not as excited about Lightyear.

The magic was Allen and the Toy Story crew. It just feels like a cash grab though I'm sure the movie is good. Do the Chris' also have to be the voice stars for ever major animated movie as well? It's probably the least excited I've been for a Pixar movie including the streaming titles.

It will do well due to the lack of family competition but I feel Minions is the one families are waiting for.

Dunno about that. Despicable Me 3 only opened to 70m. Minions opened around SLOP which saw a 60% drop in OW and Minion had even worse WOM. If Minions can open to 60, I'd be very impressed. Something around 50m seems more likely to me.

I am also feeling this will underperform. it has a 4 day weekend and so even with meh start it should still do something like 70m over 4 days and then with summer cross 200m. But its no patch on Toy Story Brand. Plus OS would be meh as well. Its banned in many countries due to the kiss scene plus Pixar movies generally dont do that great OS minus Japan, UK, AU and Latin America. But this looks to be a weaker one.

Pixar needs one of the trinity Stanton, Bird or Docter to make a project. I have a feeling with Chapek being focused on D+ could be a death kneel to passion projects that Pixar used to be make. We will not see a inside out kind of breakout anymore. That would be unfortunate.

15m Tuesday for JW:D.

What's below is not really an explicit spoiler but could be a hint to something that might happen in the movie so that's why its in tags. I have not seen the movie.

She is right, this movie feels different with Allen as Buzz

Top Gun won't drop more than 28% this weekend but I think it's going to be lower. Maybe 23%.

wednesday drop is quite bad. Nothing like TGM. So it weekend hold wont be pretty for sure. TGM is definitely looking at 40m+ weekend with FD.

Two more $7M days and TGM will need $176M to get to $600M. Original TG made $176.7M in its first run so it's meant to be.

Father's Day will be huge for TGM. Feel it has a possible chance of an under 20% drop and could have the #2 biggest 4th weekend of wide release of all time. Will have a harsher 5th weekend and may get a bigger hit from Elvis demo wise, before seeing another spike in its 6th weekend over July 4th long weekend.

It should get another spike on Labor Day but I also wonder if Paramount could do a push in November with an expanded re-release on Veterans Day but also as part of a FYC Oscar run. Even if it is available at home and that is against Black Panther 2, would probably help it grow its total box office tally.

All of that is going to happen final total domestic around $650m-$675m

Lightyear isn't doing very well here tonight. The Wednesday showing only had a handful of people as well. Granted tickets were over $18 but it hasn't rebounded much tonight. I'm regretting predicting a 90 Million opening.

This weekend is getting to be a lot more exciting than I was anticipating. Father's Day + 4 day weekend leave a lot up in the air here.

1 JP $58.0 M -60%
2 LY $56.4 M NEW
3 TG $44.1 M -15%

Only thing that feels certain is that TG is looking like it will be the star of the weekend again. Could its 4day surpass last weekend's 3day?