Oppenheimer suddenly has me thinking that the film has more potential than initially thought. Scorsese is a legend, DiCaprio is a massive star, Brendan Fraser just won best actor, De Niro is always respected. A 97% on RT with 66 reviews in.

Not saying this will do $80m opening weekend, but could be a much larger gross than expected?

I think a run on par with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is realistic

Yes agreed - Once Upon a Time sounds a out right. Perhaps up to Revenant at a stretch.

Big unknown for me is Apple. It has Napoleon and KOTFM coming out this fall.

Luckily the big unknown is on the upside. You have a movie coming from the biggest market leader of smartphones in the world with 30%+ share of every person on earth that has one.

Haven't figured out yet how that will translate at the box office but think the Apple marketing team has a lot of room to be very creative with the release.

I think it could have a long run though if Apple lets it and play till the Oscars.

I am not buying a big OW but this could play well through the awards season if the studio would let it do so. I am hoping it can gross 150m domestic. Leo is still a huge draw.

But I am not convinced this has overseas potential except very specific markets. Scorsese is not that well known outside a tiny segment. Nolan on the other hand is very well known and is a draw by himself.

I think something like this or Napolean will break out, I was leaning towards the latter honestly but it could be this.

40m+ opening sounds about right.

There's something about evil Joaquin that just makes a good movie.

Feel both will be big breakouts box office wise but Moon just has such a great cast and evil DeNiro just seems so intriguing to watch and will probably be very good awards season wise for him too.

This should do very well and play almost as a sequel to Oppenheimer. We've seen it happen before with similar but unrelater movies like Departed -> American Gangster and Sin City -> 300.

The market is so unstable right now though ... I think this movie's opening weekend range is $15-50M. Apple needs to release a still photo of Leo pointing at something asap.

Leo won't be doing any promo for it which will hurt it. I also wonder if the 'white man bad' angle will create a conservative boycott of some kind.

So my dad has that Trump apologist "Everyone blame the White Man!" attitude (Cringing at when he takes my sister to see Barbie), but he's generally sympathetic to the plight of Native Americans. I don't know if it's because genocide is pretty hard to make excuses for, or because they don't have to argue with an Indigenous person at work, but it's generally not a huge culture war thing. Hell, he might even want to see this with me (He appreciated when we saw The Human Factor together.

Leo is very big overseas though, and all of his collabs with Scorsese made more overseas than domestic - heck, 70% of Wolf of Wall Street's box office was international! That said, I'm not sure what Apple's plans are for releases in foreign markets, or if they're just interested in a theatrical release stateside and then letting the rest of the world catch on their streaming service. I hope they give it a full-throated push though. Oppenheimer blowing up and being a hit with audiences makes me cautiously optimistic this can do well.

Leo is a huge draw though. Shutter Island, The Revenant and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood all opened to about $40M.

Presales just started and its strong. Leo/Marty combo has some equity for sure. I cant see it open < 40m at this point. Let us how it goes.

I heard the other day that it's Leo's best performance yet. It's quotes like this + the Leo/Marty equity that make the project uniquely lucrative.

Can’t wait for this.