Elvis - 34
The Black Phone - 15

This is going to be a fun weekend to follow.

1 Elvis $36m
2 LY $29.7 -45%
3 TGM $28.6 M - 35%
4 JP $26.1M - 55%
5 BP $18M

Could have a scenario of the top 4 all within $10M of each other. 5 if BP surpasses expectations. Elvis disappointing, TGM holding well, rankings could be a toss up.

I hope The Black Phone does well. Looks cool and it has been awhile since we've had a major horror hit.


Elvis, much like Bohemian Rhapsody and Rocket Man before it, looks like a remake of Walk Hard which takes itself Seriously. But people seem to like these Greatist Hits movies more than the satire which eviscerated them so it will probably do pretty well.

The marketing for The Black Phone really needs to ramp up. Could have done very well. Will still probably have very solid legs though.

Yeah with hype Black Phone should be doing 20m+ but idk.

Elvis - $26 million
The Black Phone - $15 million

Lightyear -56%
Jurassic World Dominion -50%
Top Gun: Maverick -37%

Unless I'm forgetting another weekend, this has a good shot at being the first weekend since September 2019 where the entire top 5 makes $15+ million, as long as Black Phone over-performs (I also haven't seen a lot of marketing, but maybe I'm just not looking in the right places?).

Feeling good about Elvis. Looks way better than Rocketman and all those boomers who saw the trailer with Top Gun will come out. 45m+

The Black Phone can hopefully do 20m+

Elvis is showing very good sales for early shows but the show count is very limited. Thursday sales are looking good as well. I am thinking 40m+ and should win next weekend for sure.

Elvis will do well because it does look good and importantly the trailer has been showing in front of TG Maverick for a month now - you couldn't have asked for a better film to advertise with.

I'm thinking $45-50m is in play.

Edit: Just realised this is what zwackerm said and I have to agree.

Elvis - 35
Lightyear - 31
JWD - 30
TGM - 29
The Black Phone - 20

5 films topping 20m

Excited for this weekend. 2 high profile, high concept original studio pictures expected to do well and have a positive audience reception with good legs going forward.

Hoping Where the Crawdads Sing, Nope, Bullet Train and more can continue the trend of original films being buzzy.

If Elvis underperforms a bit, it's very possible TGM could take first place, which would be insane.

Tuesday numbers:

TGM did $6.0M on Tuesday for $480.7M total. Down 20.6% from last Tuesday.

JP $7.1M -52% for $266.1M total.

LY $5.9M for $63.0M total.

How is Elvis looking? Deadline is low at 20m+ but boxoffic.com is still saying 35m-45m.

PS is definitely amping up. I am in 35m+ camp as well.

Yeah the sales for tonight and tomorrow are looking strong. Even the matinees are filling up well (older audiences finally returning?).

Sales for Black Phone tonight are also starting to look good. I was getting worried about it, but maybe $20M is still in the cards? Five movies making above $20M would be outstanding (especially after the #5 movie last weekend made $1.1 million). [ETA: just went through 3 years of weekend charts, the last time that happened was...July 22-24, 2016. Dang.]

Fun fact: It would be history repeating as TOP GUN reclaimed the No. 1 spot the 5th weekend...

Black Phone so far looks like having better walkups than Elvis. Elvis should still have higher previews especially with early shows. But I could see Elvis doing tad below expectations and Black phone doing better.

I think Deadline's box office projections for Black Phone at $15-$20 million is too low. There is an audience for horror films. Black Phone should clear $20 million easily or its another bad miss for me in the June/July contest.
The Elvis movie has two problems: (a) 2 hour 39 minute running time and (b) rumor that the last third of the movie focuses on Tom Hanks too much for an older skewing movie.
Empire City thinks he will be the one laughing at the others at Box Office Theory who discounted the chances of Elvis soaring as a huge blockbuster.
Millions of men over 45 showed up on opening weekend to give Top Gun: Maverick a $126.7 million start. I doubt millions of women over 45 will go to movie theaters to see Tom Hanks play Elvis' manager. Maybe Elvis can earn half of Bohemian Rhapsody's $51.1 million opening weekend.

Hoping for 14m OD for both Elvis and Black Phone.

That would certainly be insane for The Black Phone. Hoping it happens. I can't see it though. 10 Million OD would be fantastic.

Apparently it's looking like 10+ for The Black Phone and 13+ for Elvis.

I read Lightyear is looking at 5.2 Million for Friday. Ouch.

How much does a movie from Universal have to open to to avoid a 17 day streaming window? Hopefully The Black Phone makes it because it should be fairly leggy if they don't just dump it on demand soon after release.

$50 million. However, some Universal films on PVOD coming out this early did not have that negative impact like Candyman, The Bad Guys, and Sing 2.