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Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89385		 Page 1 of 2
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri Jun 17, 2022 11:04 am ]
Post subject:  Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
$5.2m for Wednesday/Thursday combined
Author:  O [ Fri Jun 17, 2022 12:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews
Sonic had $6.3M in previews just from Thursday.

Sonic opened to $72,105,176. If it follows Sonic that would be $59.5M weekend. However, with more kids getting out of school, two days of previews, this feels like it has a chance to miss $50M? Though family matinees still leave a lot up in the air.

Does Maverick have any shot at #1 this weekend then if JP falls off the map? :P

The irony is if Lightyear does disappoint this weekend I could have seen Turning Red outopen it!
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri Jun 17, 2022 12:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews
Lol Idk why I thought this could open to 100m+. Yeah it's dumb because if this opens to less than $60m Disney is probably gonns stupidly regret not putting this straight to D+ when Turning Red would've smashed in theaters.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Fri Jun 17, 2022 12:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews
Turning Red would have had such good legs.

It's hard to tell if this is bad or not. Obviously its a kids film that will perform best throughout the weekend, but it does show that Pixar's passionate older fanbase was not into this one.
Author:  O [ Fri Jun 17, 2022 12:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews
Tracking was at $70-85M. Father's Day could still save it as a family movie that skews younger than Maverick and JP so there could be hope for it yet.

I feel not having Allen in this will take off at least 30% of its OW. Aren't toy voices modeled after the cartoon's voice from the show? They've alienated fans of the original and recast a roll that audiences have associated with an actor for 27 years.

Are they going to do a Mr. Potato Head movie and cast a Hemsworth brother next? The origin story of growing up as a potato? :hahaha:
Author:  mark66 [ Sat Jun 18, 2022 8:09 am ]
Post subject:  Friday
looking to me like:

$20m Lightyear
$15.6m JW3
$11m TGM
Author:  Darth Indiana Bond [ Sat Jun 18, 2022 10:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews
I just have zero desire to see Lightyear. It looks like a generic space adventure movie but with the “twist” of it being about Buzz Lightyear. I think the Disney brand is looking stale these days as well. I think the Disney era of dominance over the box office is over and things will even out going forward for the near future
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Sat Jun 18, 2022 12:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews
Lightyear is a huge misfire. Plus Disney has diluted the Pixar brand in past few years releasing their movies directly on D+. Docter was coming up after Monsters Inc/Up/Inside Out and still Soul released for free on D+. It was beyond retarded and that tarnished the brand big time. Lee Unkrich quit Pixar sometime ago and I expect Docter to leave as well. Stanton/Bird have not done anything since their last movies as well. Anyway Disney does not need 2 brands for Animation movies. Just make one under Disney brand.

Story of the weekend is TGM again. EC is saying big saturday increase is in play and 45m could happen. That is ridiculous and strongest 4th weekend after Avatar. Monday is a half holiday and we are entering peak summer weekdays with 4th of July weekend also coming up. I think 650m+ in play and if it plays well through August even 700m domestic can happen. Overseas holds have been uber strong and korea is going to have humongous opening next weekend(3m + admits). 600m OS could happen with great legs !!!
Author:  O [ Sat Jun 18, 2022 12:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews
LY: Big misfire not having Allen in this role! Soul, Turning Red and Luca (possibly) look like they'd all out gross LY theatrically.

TGM wins the weekend again even if it finishes at #3. Will also be the film that pushes SW Ep. 4 out of the top 20 of all time domestic, where its been for 45 years! Could be at $470M+ by Monday. Would need a 6.95 multiplier to get to $700M and top 5 of all time. A stretch but the second bump expected July 4th weekend could greatly help. A 4.4 multiplier is all TGM needs at this point to break top 10 domestic.

JP is forgettable but it's horrible drop will actually get less bad press since it held well enough to likely beat LY for #1 this weekend. More LY disappointing than JP holding well but good PR for them.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Sat Jun 18, 2022 1:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews
Oof. I guess this makes sense though. If anything Disney+ sure isn't helping anything. Not only did they train audiences to expect Pixar films straight to D+, but the short theatrical windows probably keep a lot of people from the theater.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Jun 18, 2022 2:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews
With the power of retrospect, Turning Red could have had a long profitable theatrical run while Lightyear could have been a buzzworthy series on Plus. Soul was understandable, Luca was questionable but Turning Red going dtv actually really hurt the brand. There was no reason to do it. Will be interesting to see what happens with Elemental next year.
Author:  O [ Sat Jun 18, 2022 2:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews
More amazing TGM stats from Friday: It's PTA dropped only 18.5%!

It would need a $49.1M weekend to match last weekend's PTA which isn't likely, but looks like it's 4day weekend can top last weekend's 3day PTA.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sat Jun 18, 2022 2:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews
As expected great hold for Top Gun.
Author:  mark66 [ Sun Jun 19, 2022 8:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews
Saturday looks like close to $22m for JW3 and $15.5m+ each for TGM and LIGHTYEAR...
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
44m for Top Gun, -15% drop... holy shittt

3rd biggest 4th weekend of all time!! (Or 2nd not counting American Sniper since that was its first wide weekend)
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jun 19, 2022 11:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
Jurassic World dropped 59%. That's a great drop! I guess let's see how it drops next week but looks like WoM isn't terrible.

Lightyear's # early in the pandemic would've been great but now feels underwhelming. We have nothing to compare it on in terms of Pixar though. Let's see how Minions does.

Still nice to see 3 films over 40m!
Author:  O [ Sun Jun 19, 2022 12:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
With the long weekend and Father's Day I was expecting mid 50s at least for LY. Probably high $40s without holiday bumps. Could this miss $150M?

TGM having a $44M second weekend would have been great. 4th weekend is a whole other level. I've read it a few times now but it's now in movie phenomenon level territory here. It's likely going to be the leggiest $80M+ OW film of all time. It's PTA is down just 10.3%. :noway: By the time it leaves theaters I would count it as one of the top 10 box office runs of all time. It needs a 6.32 multiplier now to get to $700M and crack the top 5 domestic. 5.18 for $650M.
Author:  Mau [ Sun Jun 19, 2022 2:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
Damn @ TGM. No way it loses the #1 spot of the year now
Author:  Jiffy [ Sun Jun 19, 2022 3:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
Mau wrote:
Damn @ TGM. No way it loses the #1 spot of the year now


Only wildcard will be Avatar 2.
Author:  O [ Sun Jun 19, 2022 3:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
Still think BP2 has a dark horse chance as well. The franchise has done $700M before and if there's a Ledger/Paul Walker type tribute, even without Chadwick its going to get a lot of people who see it as a tribute to him. Lots of school showings propelled it and it has Thanksgiving + the Christmas holidays so I won't count it out.
Author:  Rev [ Sun Jun 19, 2022 3:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
Yup! both Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Avatar: The Way of Water are big competition for the #1 spot.

It’s crazy & amazing that TGM is even in the discussion.
Author:  lilmac [ Sun Jun 19, 2022 9:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
The fact that TGM beat Top Gun's inflation number ($437M) by a mile is so surprising to me.
Author:  lilmac [ Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
Love this excerpt:

https://www.boxofficepro.com/weekend-bo ... -maverick/

Cruising altitude
Last month, Paramount’s action-adventure sequel Top Gun: Maverick debuted with “only” the #39 opening weekend of all time (now down one spot to #40 thanks to Dominion.)

Then, due to superb word of mouth, the film declined only -29% in its sophomore frame, the mildest such drop among any film to ever debut at $100M+. Accordingly, it ascended to the #8 second weekend of all time.

Then in its third frame, it remained in that “top-10” tier, declining only -42% despite the huge opening of Jurassic World: Dominion to capture the #10 third weekend of all time.

This weekend, it experiences its mildest drop yet at only -15%, to $44.0M. That marks the #3 fourth weekend of all time, behind only American Sniper ($89.2M) and Avatar ($50.3M) and just ahead of Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($42.3M).
Author:  Rev [ Sun Jun 19, 2022 10:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
American Sniper 4th weekend was actually its 1st weekend opening wide. :lol: The first 3 weeks it was only playing in 4 theaters
Author:  Jiffy [ Mon Jun 20, 2022 12:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
Yeah that should be an immediate disqualifier from anyone blindly going off BOM's messed up charts.
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