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 Lightyear previews/weekend estimates 
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
LY went down slightly from estimates ($50.57M). Doubt Disney would have let this go below $50M so would not be shocked if there was some creative accounting involved.

Dr. Strange dropped just 14% to $4.4M.

Still waiting for TGM and JP though TGM's overseas tally this weekend went up from $39.7M to $42M, $421M tally.


Mon Jun 20, 2022 3:16 pm
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
Not completely terrible but definitely the last Toy Story spin off we will be getting.

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Last edited by Barrabás on Tue Jun 21, 2022 1:57 am, edited 1 time in total.



Mon Jun 20, 2022 3:44 pm
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
Actuals are a bit late for some of the films this weekend.

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Tue Jun 21, 2022 12:40 am
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
Actuals:

TOP GUN: MAVERICK
$44.65M 3-Day Weekend (Actual) - 13.9% :noway: :noway:
$52.58M 4-Day Weekend (Actual)
$474.75M Total (North America)

It's also coming BACK to Imax on Friday. Could this possibly pull $30M+ again (-32.8%)?!

With only Minions on July 4th long weekend I wouldn't be shocked at this point by a $40M+ 6th weekend for TGM. :whaa:

Other actuals:

JURASSIC WORLD: DOMINION
$59.15M 3-Day Weekend (Actual) -59.3%
$67.78M 4-Day Weekend (Actual)
$258.91M Total (North America)


EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE
$942K 3-Day Weekend (Actual) - 27.0%
$1.15M 4-Day Weekend (Actual)
$65.11M Total (North America)


Last edited by O on Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.



Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:09 pm
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
O wrote:
Finally got one:

TOP GUN: MAVERICK
$44.65M 3-Day Weekend (Actual)
$52.58M 4-Day Weekend (Actual)
$474.75M Total (North America)

It's also coming BACK to Imax on Friday. Could this possibly pull $30M+ again?!


It's not doing sub 25m this weekend so 30m isn't out of the question :noway:


Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:14 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
For anyone still keeping score, TGM needs a 6.04 multiplier from this weekend to reach $700M.

It needs $225M more and just had a $45M 3day ($53M 4day weekend).

Imax coming back week 5 = $30M -33%

July 4th long weekend in week 6th = $40.5M +35%

Could be at about $580M by July 4th off of a $40M+ 6th weekend based on my current projections. :noway:

There are no words anymore left to describe this run. We have entered the Danger Zone. :D


Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:19 pm
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
O wrote:
For anyone still keeping score, TGM needs a 6.04 multiplier from this weekend to reach $700M.

It needs $225M more and just had a $45M 3day ($53M 4day weekend).

Imax coming back week 5 = $30M -33%

July 4th long weekend in week 6th = $40.5M +35%

Could be at about $580M by July 4th off of a $40M+ 6th weekend based on my current projections. :noway:

There are no words anymore left to describe this run. We have entered the Danger Zone. :D


and on it's 15th weekend (Labor Day) it's doing $10m + :wacko:

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Tue Jun 21, 2022 3:56 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
Rev wrote:
O wrote:
For anyone still keeping score, TGM needs a 6.04 multiplier from this weekend to reach $700M.

It needs $225M more and just had a $45M 3day ($53M 4day weekend).

Imax coming back week 5 = $30M -33%

July 4th long weekend in week 6th = $40.5M +35%

Could be at about $580M by July 4th off of a $40M+ 6th weekend based on my current projections. :noway:

There are no words anymore left to describe this run. We have entered the Danger Zone. :D


and on it's 15th weekend (Labor Day) it's doing $10m + :wacko:


On its 25th weekend (Veterans Day), it will get a re-release extended cut + Oscar push and maybe do $5M+ :whaa:


Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:15 pm
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
O wrote:
Rev wrote:
O wrote:
For anyone still keeping score, TGM needs a 6.04 multiplier from this weekend to reach $700M.

It needs $225M more and just had a $45M 3day ($53M 4day weekend).

Imax coming back week 5 = $30M -33%

July 4th long weekend in week 6th = $40.5M +35%

Could be at about $580M by July 4th off of a $40M+ 6th weekend based on my current projections. :noway:

There are no words anymore left to describe this run. We have entered the Danger Zone. :D


and on it's 15th weekend (Labor Day) it's doing $10m + :wacko:


On its 25th weekend (Veterans Day), it will get a re-release extended cut + Oscar push and maybe do $5M+ :whaa:


MOTHER OF GOD :whaa: moment incoming

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Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:24 pm
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
Here are the most insightful numbers I've seen so far on TGM:

Quote:
According to Paramount, more than 16 percent of Top Gun 2‘s audience has seen the film more than once in theaters, while four percent have seen it four times or more.


16% of the audience is seeing this 2X or more? That's almost $76M! If there's any weekend this is going to get a lot of repeat viewings, it's July 4th. I'm starting to seriously think this will do $50M+ in its 6th weekend. It won't just beat Avatar's $34,944,081 weekend tally, it could obliterate it. It's a cultural phenomenon and the crazy thing is I think there's ALOT more left in its run to go.

We're seeing an 80s/90s type box office run here in modern times with a massive OW. I'm starting to think this could play for the rest of the year if the studio let it though wouldn't be shocked if Paramount aims streaming release in November for Veterans Day.


Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:54 pm
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
https://m.the-numbers.com/box-office-re ... eekend/6th


6th weekends (TGM's 6th)

Avatar - $34.944M
Frozen - $28.596M
Titanic - $25.238

Uncharted territory here folks.

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Tue Jun 21, 2022 8:06 pm
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
O wrote:
I'm starting to think this could play for the rest of the year if the studio let it though wouldn't be shocked if Paramount aims streaming release in November for Veterans Day.


I really wish they would let it play until it stops making money. I've seen it twice and now this weekend it's getting back a lot of premium screens. I want to take my parents and honestly will probably end up seeing it with a friend again. So that might be 4 viewings for me.


Tue Jun 21, 2022 8:29 pm
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
It's rare when a film has a strong connection to two US holidays that occur in proximity to each other. In this case, Memorial Day and 4th of July. TGM has a chance of crushing it through both holidays.

I suppose there are films that cater to both Thanksgiving and Christmas themes (and by extension, NYE) but it's rare.

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Tue Jun 21, 2022 9:47 pm
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
Wouldn't any U.S. military/war film tick all the boxes for a film that caters to both Memorial Day and Independence Day? And by the same measure wouldn't any celebratory/holiday/family get-together film cater to the three at the end of the year?

I'm not really sure here, but wouldn't a Jingle All the Way, Four Christmases, Polar Express-type be popular at Thanksgiving thru New Years? or are people looking for solely Turkey-based laughs around Thanksgiving and booze-fueled hijinks around NYE?

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Tue Jun 21, 2022 11:36 pm
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
Yes, Memorial Day releases that play well during 4th of July are probably more common than I thought.

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Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:08 am
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
It's almost a trifecta play with Father's Day too in June so almost three big holidays in just a 6 week period. It's much more pronounced since TGM is a multi-generational play. Teenagers/young adults in the 80s who loved the original are going with their teenage/20 something kids. It's also reminding me a bit of SW Ep. 1 though that was only a 16 year gap.

The other factor here too is we've gotten so OW obsessed that most movies opening Memorial Weekend or in May have been long forgotten by July long weekend. Here's a fun stat, the last film in the top 3 Memorial Weekend that was also in the top 3 July 4th weekend goes back 37 years to 1985. Rambo: First Blood Part II. TG came close in 1986 but was #4! TGM isn't just an 80s IP, it also looks like it's having a 1980s box office run.


Wed Jun 22, 2022 1:27 am
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
O wrote:
16% of the audience is seeing this 2X or more? That's almost $76M! If there's any weekend this is going to get a lot of repeat viewings, it's July 4th. I'm starting to seriously think this will do $50M+ in its 6th weekend. It won't just beat Avatar's $34,944,081 weekend tally, it could obliterate it. It's a cultural phenomenon and the crazy thing is I think there's ALOT more left in its run to go.


I'm sure there will be a July 4th boost, but this seems like getting ahead of things.


Wed Jun 22, 2022 2:13 am
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
O wrote:
Here are the most insightful numbers I've seen so far on TGM:

Quote:
According to Paramount, more than 16 percent of Top Gun 2‘s audience has seen the film more than once in theaters, while four percent have seen it four times or more.


16% of the audience is seeing this 2X or more? That's almost $76M! If there's any weekend this is going to get a lot of repeat viewings, it's July 4th. I'm starting to seriously think this will do $50M+ in its 6th weekend. It won't just beat Avatar's $34,944,081 weekend tally, it could obliterate it. It's a cultural phenomenon and the crazy thing is I think there's ALOT more left in its run to go.

We're seeing an 80s/90s type box office run here in modern times with a massive OW. I'm starting to think this could play for the rest of the year if the studio let it though wouldn't be shocked if Paramount aims streaming release in November for Veterans Day.


I know that this movie's run is absolutely crazy but isn't this whole (bolded) paragraph ridiculously confident? If this was about Top Gun increasing from $3m to $5m then sure that could happen but $30m to $50m would be pretty unprecendented to a level that I doubt is possible. Movies like Frozen or Passion of the Christ had huge bumps on favourable holidays but they were all grossing way less than Top Gun is about to. Titanic, the leggy monster didnot increase on Valentine's (Presidents) day weekend by as much as you ARE predicting Top Gun to increase on July 4. Jumanji is, I think, the only movie with a(n) (adjusted) $30m+ weekend that increased by a comparable number but's because it's opening weekend was deflated by quite possibly the worst holiday configuration imaginable (Christmas eve falling on a sunday). So what's the Maths here?


Wed Jun 22, 2022 10:29 am
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
I cant see a massive bump over July 4th but it could stay flat or have a small bump - i.e. 10%

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Wed Jun 22, 2022 11:52 am
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
It's probably over optimistic! TPOTC adjusts to about $25M when it saw it's Easter bump. I expect getting premium screens again + group screenings that weekend + holiday tie in + lighter competition than usual + people looking for a family movie + watercooler movie + high repeat viewings will help.


Wed Jun 22, 2022 12:22 pm
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
There's a slight chance that TGM will be No. 1 Wednesday...

$5.5m TGM
$5.5m JW3
$4.25m LIGHTYEAR

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Thu Jun 23, 2022 6:48 am
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
TGM back at #1 by $33K! Was last #1 June 9th.

TGM $5,476,223
Jurassic World Dominion $5,443,455
Lightyear $4,246,988


Fri Jun 24, 2022 1:07 am
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
So Disney reported earnings and it's subscriber count surpassed expectations and all of it's platforms now surpass Netflix.

Looks like more Pixar coming to Disney+!!! :oops:


Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:12 am
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
Disney just feels more like a company that can get away with having its own little streaming club. Didn't they also have a mail order Mouse Club or something in the 90s? So it just has that aura of being a kids clique that can excel in a world separated from the theatrical system. They also made a habit of nurturing the home video market in the 90s with all of their low-key sequels to their blockbusters.

Other studios don't have such a reputation or a make up to their catalogues, which is why I believe most studios will follow Zaslav's lead, in whole or in part, in leaning towards theatrical more than streaming, but still keeping both going.

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Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:00 am
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Post Re: Lightyear previews/weekend estimates
O wrote:
So Disney reported earnings and it's subscriber count surpassed expectations and all of it's platforms now surpass Netflix.

Looks like more Pixar coming to Disney+!!! :oops:


They lost the rights for india cricket so expect them to lose millions of subs, im reading as much as 10 million subs.


Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:05 pm
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