WOW!!!!!!!!
Hope it tops $80mJonathan wrote:
[Top Gun is gonna go 2/2 in winning summer movie seasons.
Absolutely cuckoo bananas number.
Absolutely cuckoo bananas number.
Tom Cruise after reading the headlines
SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!
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| Friday Numbers (June 3) https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89363 |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | Friday Numbers (June 3) |
$500M+ total on the table. Might be more likely than not at this point, only needs a 3.51 multiplier from this weekend to make it. Top Gun is gonna go 2/2 in winning summer movie seasons. Absolutely cuckoo bananas number. |
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| Author: | Rev [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:45 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
WOW!!!!!!!! Hope it tops $80mJonathan wrote: [Top Gun is gonna go 2/2 in winning summer movie seasons. Absolutely cuckoo bananas number. Tom Cruise after reading the headlines SHOW ME THE MONEY!!!
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
Paramount is estimating $84.5m, I'm gonna go with $86m - 8th biggest 2nd weekend all-time |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 10:56 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
A brief history of my TGM total predicitions on my website: $250m Yearly forecast $320m May forecast $600m Opening forecast Feeling more and more comfortable that I wasn't that crazy with the $600m total... BTW, my opening weekend forecast was $160m and my 2nd weekend forecast $85m... |
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| Author: | O [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 11:05 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
mark66 wrote: A brief history of my TGM total predicitions on my website: $250m Yearly forecast $320m May forecast $600m Opening forecast Feeling more and more comfortable that I wasn't that crazy with the $600m total... BTW, my opening weekend forecast was $160m and my 2nd weekend forecast $85m... Great job! It's going to clear $300M by its 11th or 12th day so $500M+ feels inevitable. $600M+ is the new benchmark to be looking at here. For a sequel to a nearly 40 year old film to do this Marvel sequel level gross is going to completely rewrite the rules of Hollywood and we're getting a flood of old IP. |
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| Author: | Jonathan [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 11:42 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
Didn't realize until this morning that only five non-Disney/Marvel releases have ever made over $500 million total in America, and none since Jurassic World. Maverick making it that high would be incredible. |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 11:45 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
O wrote: mark66 wrote: A brief history of my TGM total predicitions on my website: $250m Yearly forecast $320m May forecast $600m Opening forecast Feeling more and more comfortable that I wasn't that crazy with the $600m total... BTW, my opening weekend forecast was $160m and my 2nd weekend forecast $85m... Great job! It's going to clear $300M by its 11th or 12th day so $500M+ feels inevitable. $600M+ is the new benchmark to be looking at here. For a sequel to a nearly 40 year old film to do this Marvel sequel level gross is going to completely rewrite the rules of Hollywood and we're getting a flood of old IP. Funny thing is, I couldn't stand the original - watched it back in 1986 and never had the desire to see it again (and never did)... But even I liked TGM... |
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| Author: | Shack [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 1:01 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
This is nuts |
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| Author: | Flava'd vs The World [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 2:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
Wow what an absurd drop. Is Top Gun really gonna win the year?? |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 3:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
Yeah I think this will at least be top 3 of the year with Avatar and Black Panther. Literally wtf. Studios are gonna be clamoring for more legacy sequels but idk what else would perform like this. |
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| Author: | O [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 6:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
The second weekend hold is even more impressive than last weekend. A 33% drop from an inflated OW on a holiday to a 40 year old sequel???! On a non-holiday weekend we'd be seeing a sub-20% drop from a $100M+ opener!!?!  The Passion adjusts to $546,199,412 based on 2019 so feels like it will be not too far off from there and seems like it is doing well with the heartland. TG2 needs a 5.82 multiplier to get to $700M, 4.65 multiplier to get to $600M and 3.47 multiplier to get to $500M from an $85M second weekend. A lot depends on weekend 3's hold against Jurassic Park but it has a shot at domestic top 10 at this rate ($620M total to edge out SW Ep. 8). The crazy thing is with a July 4th bump up in week 6, it's anyone's guess where this goes. |
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| Author: | Algren [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:17 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
America is still a very patriotic country, and every now and then they need their fix of 'America Fuck Yeah'. Just like with American Sniper, I feel one factor why Top Gun: Maverick is doing SO well is the patriotism, particularly in wartime when there's a general sense of Russia being The Villain of the World again. If Hollywood were to green light other 80s sequels, such as The Breakfast Club or, I don't know, Road House?, I feel this would be a mistake. They don't hold the cultural appeal of Top Gun, and they wouldn't be offering a stellar cinematic experience with a star that's still killing it, and to top it off there would be no feeling of national pride. |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 11:10 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
RTH/EmpireCity are saying 35m saturday. So thinking around 88-90m 2nd weekend. Sat to Sat drop of around 8% must be among the best in recent times for a movie not released during christmas holidays. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 11:25 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
... mother of god |
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| Author: | O [ Sat Jun 04, 2022 11:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
That Sat number is  TG needs a 5.49 multiplier from a $90M weekend from here on out to do $700M and 4.38 to get to $600M. Cruise hasn't ever had a film make more than $234M domestically and he's about to have one possibly pass $700M.  It's got a dark horse shot at top 5 of all time domestic ($700M+) if it withstands Jurassic Park but top 10 is looking better and better ($620M+). The 8% Sat to Sat drop is FOLLOWING a holiday weekend! It's supposed to be the other way around with holiday's insulating second weekend drops and weekends after holidays seeing a big plunge. This is a box office run for the ages! 
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| Author: | Jiffy [ Sun Jun 05, 2022 2:09 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
40% Saturday increase for this (when it was presumably already doing strong PLF business) is nuts. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Sun Jun 05, 2022 2:59 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
I think much like "dinosaurs escape from their amusement park" is a concept that clicked twice twenty years apart, the concept of Top Gun just hits |
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| Author: | O [ Sun Jun 05, 2022 4:44 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
From the top 400 domestic list, I'd say other high value candidates (though not likely probable) include Home Alone, Elf, Gladiator, Grease, The Exorcist, Jaws and ET. Actors returning to iconic roles could also be mega blockbuster runs. Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman 2, Will Smith in a legit ID4 sequel once he's back in the public's good graces, Sigourney in Alien, Matthew Broadrick in Ferris Bueller 2, Lindsay Lohan and team in Mean Girls 2, Uma in Kill Bill 3, Sound of Music 2 (still #3 on the adjusted list). I personally think the charm of a Ferris Bueller sequel would resonate big time as Bueller's kid takes the day off of school or something. |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sun Jun 05, 2022 6:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
$35.5m+ looks to me closer to $36m than $35m... 8th biggest 2nd Saturday of all-time... |
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| Author: | mark66 [ Sun Jun 05, 2022 8:13 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
mark66 wrote: looks to me closer to $36m than $35m... 8th biggest 2nd Saturday of all-time... Yeah, $35.75m ish... |
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Sun Jun 05, 2022 10:45 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
Should really come close to 90m !!! 6% sat to sat drop.
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| Author: | Keyser Söze [ Sun Jun 05, 2022 11:29 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
Studio is predicting 30% sunday drop for 86m weekend. Locked to go up for sure. |
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| Author: | publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:00 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
Stunning hold. Wow. |
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| Author: | Shack [ Sun Jun 05, 2022 12:21 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
O wrote: From the top 400 domestic list, I'd say other high value candidates (though not likely probable) include Home Alone, Elf, Gladiator, Grease, The Exorcist, Jaws and ET. Actors returning to iconic roles could also be mega blockbuster runs. Julia Roberts in Pretty Woman 2, Will Smith in a legit ID4 sequel once he's back in the public's good graces, Sigourney in Alien, Matthew Broadrick in Ferris Bueller 2, Lindsay Lohan and team in Mean Girls 2, Uma in Kill Bill 3, Sound of Music 2 (still #3 on the adjusted list). I personally think the charm of a Ferris Bueller sequel would resonate big time as Bueller's kid takes the day off of school or something. BTTF would be big but they've basically completely ruled it out, they don't want Marty McFly to have Parkinsons I suggested doing something with Saturday Night Fever in the other thread |
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| Author: | Magic Mike [ Sun Jun 05, 2022 1:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Friday Numbers (June 3) |
Absolutely a mother of God hold.
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