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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20421 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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May 27-30 Previews/Friday/Weekend numbers
Top Gun Maverick 115/149 The Bob's Burgers Movie 12/15
Downton Abbey- -50% Doctor Strange- -45%
Last edited by zwackerm on Fri May 27, 2022 11:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Fri May 20, 2022 8:12 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32129 Location: the last free city
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
zwackerm wrote: Top Gun Maverick 115/149 NOW YOU'RE PREDICTING THAT?!!!! NOW!!! :facepalm: viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89303
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
Last edited by Rev on Thu May 26, 2022 8:21 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Fri May 20, 2022 8:19 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20421 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
It's time for the memorial day record to fall after 15 years, even though I love Pirates 3
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Fri May 20, 2022 8:24 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38245
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Top Gun - higher than anyone's prediction. Just has that feel.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Fri May 20, 2022 9:06 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20421 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
This will perform like how everyone thought ID42 would perform
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Fri May 20, 2022 9:12 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32129 Location: the last free city
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
zwackerm wrote: This will perform like how everyone thought ID42 would perform So why are you predicting 115m ???
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Fri May 20, 2022 11:28 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6196
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Top Gun presales are just uber strong. i am thinking high teens preview along with early shows and around 170-180m over 4 day. This is going to wreck havoc for sure.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Fri May 20, 2022 5:02 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Top Gun is going to slay, though these outrageous gas prices will keep me from watching it on the bigger/better screens. Will have to settle for the local theater.
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
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Fri May 20, 2022 5:20 pm |
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Barrabás
llegó a la casa vía marítima
Joined: Sun Aug 05, 2007 4:53 pm Posts: 6161 Location: la gran casa de la esquina
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Keyser Söze wrote: Top Gun presales are just uber strong. i am thinking high teens preview along with early shows and around 170-180m over 4 day. This is going to wreck havoc for sure. $180 million?! And I was thinking $90-$100M 4-day would be a great result....
_________________ .
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Fri May 20, 2022 10:04 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18933 Location: San Diego
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
... I'll believe the numbers when I see them but whaaaat?
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Fri May 20, 2022 11:35 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6196
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Rolling Thunder wrote: Top Gun is going to slay, though these outrageous gas prices will keep me from watching it on the bigger/better screens. Will have to settle for the local theater. TMobile/Atom is having $5 off any ticket deal and no booking fee. Why dont you use that to see this either in large true Imax or any other PLF like Dolby.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Sat May 21, 2022 1:02 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Keyser Söze wrote: Rolling Thunder wrote: Top Gun is going to slay, though these outrageous gas prices will keep me from watching it on the bigger/better screens. Will have to settle for the local theater. TMobile/Atom is having $5 off any ticket deal and no booking fee. Why dont you use that to see this either in large true Imax or any other PLF like Dolby. Awesome, thanks Keyser!
_________________ Making Predictions Great Again!
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Sat May 21, 2022 1:15 pm |
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Excel
Superfreak
Joined: Sat Aug 20, 2005 12:54 am Posts: 21930 Location: Places
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
I would be SHOCKED at anything beyond $125m ish for the 4 day. Glad to hear the film is apparently awesome but the original is just SO old. This would have done insane business circa 1995 or possibly even 2000, but in 2022, I will be a skeptic of this films mega blockbuster potential until the moment the numbers prove me wrong. Cruise's beloved MI films cant beyond a certain range, and that series feels much more relevant. We'll have to see.
This reminds me of the internet going nuts for BR49 and look how that went.
_________________Ari Emmanuel wrote: I'd rather marry lindsay Lohan than represent Mel Gibson.
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Sat May 21, 2022 5:01 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
I'm definitely impressed with the amount of tickets sold for Thursday here. But am skeptical about it opening too huge. I don't see young audiences caring at all and will enough older people be going to movies yet? I still think it's going to do great though. Probably will reach 100 Million for the 4-Day.
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Sun May 22, 2022 11:06 am |
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Jonathan
Begging Naked
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:07 pm Posts: 14737 Location: The Present (Duh)
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Top Gun: Maverick - $66 million ($81 million 4-day) The Bob's Burgers Movie - $10.8 million ($12.5 million 4-day)
This could be another Sonic 2 situation on my part, but I'm leery about going too high on a movie that's as much of a wildcard as this. I do expect some strong legs though - if WOM is as good as early reactions indicate, has a strong chance of topping War of the Worlds to become his biggest domestic hit ever.
No idea about Bob's Burgers. I had it higher earlier in the month but I'm not sure if the show's fanbase is passionate enough anymore to rush out to the theater. Is Disney/20th Century even trying very hard with it? Pre-sales are completely non-existent.
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Sun May 22, 2022 11:42 am |
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bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm Posts: 3900
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Jonathan wrote: Top Gun: Maverick - $66 million ($81 million 4-day) The Bob's Burgers Movie - $10.8 million ($12.5 million 4-day)
This could be another Sonic 2 situation on my part, but I'm leery about going too high on a movie that's as much of a wildcard as this. I do expect some strong legs though - if WOM is as good as early reactions indicate, has a strong chance of topping War of the Worlds to become his biggest domestic hit ever.
No idea about Bob's Burgers. I had it higher earlier in the month but I'm not sure if the show's fanbase is passionate enough anymore to rush out to the theater. Is Disney/20th Century even trying very hard with it? Pre-sales are completely non-existent. Bob's Burgers came out like 5 years too late. While their ratings are okay by today's standards, I feel like this movie should've come out as a series finale. I'd be shocked if it breaks $10m in the 4-day portion. I can understand why people are underestimating TG2 because they don't want an overestimation situation like NTTD and BR2049. I hope it opens huge.
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Sun May 22, 2022 11:54 am |
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bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm Posts: 3900
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Excel wrote: I would be SHOCKED at anything beyond $125m ish for the 4 day. Glad to hear the film is apparently awesome but the original is just SO old. This would have done insane business circa 1995 or possibly even 2000, but in 2022, I will be a skeptic of this films mega blockbuster potential until the moment the numbers prove me wrong. Cruise's beloved MI films cant beyond a certain range, and that series feels much more relevant. We'll have to see.
This reminds me of the internet going nuts for BR49 and look how that went. BR2049 had a longer run time and had a much stricter rating.
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Sun May 22, 2022 11:55 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20421 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
bl1222 wrote: Excel wrote: I would be SHOCKED at anything beyond $125m ish for the 4 day. Glad to hear the film is apparently awesome but the original is just SO old. This would have done insane business circa 1995 or possibly even 2000, but in 2022, I will be a skeptic of this films mega blockbuster potential until the moment the numbers prove me wrong. Cruise's beloved MI films cant beyond a certain range, and that series feels much more relevant. We'll have to see.
This reminds me of the internet going nuts for BR49 and look how that went. BR2049 had a longer run time and had a much stricter rating. Plus the original Blade Runner was a cult hit that became popular after theatrical. It should not be discounted that the original Top Gun adjusts to well over 400m and was the top movie of 1986. The marketing for this has been EXCELLENT. I know people of all ages who want to see this. It has the perfect release date as well, it's the exact type of movie you watch on Memorial Day. Hopefully Stranger Things and Obi Wan don't hurt it.
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Sun May 22, 2022 3:06 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38245
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Could Stranger Things and Obi Wan Kenobi coming out on Friday hurt the gross? A lot going on at once
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Mon May 23, 2022 2:33 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20421 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Shack wrote: Could Stranger Things and Obi Wan Kenobi coming out on Friday hurt the gross? A lot going on at once Should lead to more backloading but the overall gross should be unaffected
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Mon May 23, 2022 3:07 pm |
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Magic Mike
Wallflower
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 4:53 am Posts: 34876 Location: Minnesota
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Bob's Burgers has great reviews. I'd seen the first few episodes years ago and did enjoy them. With the reviews I'm actually really wanting to see the movie. Hopefully I'd be able to follow ok even without being that familiar with the show.
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Tue May 24, 2022 2:53 am |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6196
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Tuesday shows are near sellouts at most places. Based on tracking its going to do 4m just from Tuesday and another 200-300K tomorrow with investor connect shows(plus few shows at drafthouse). Let us see how final week surge goes. I am optimistic the worst case for this is 150m.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Tue May 24, 2022 1:32 pm |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
I know it's a pretty popular show, but wouldn't have expected THAT much potential. Upset incoming?
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Tue May 24, 2022 1:52 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20421 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Fantastic Beasts will be at like 96m by Monday. Too bad it's going to HBO max so soon, could've been pushed to 100m
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Tue May 24, 2022 2:42 pm |
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Steve
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:09 pm Posts: 1814
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Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Corpse wrote: I know it's a pretty popular show, but wouldn't have expected THAT much potential. Upset incoming? I’m pretty sure Keyzer’s post was referring to Top Gun, not Bob’s Burgers…
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Tue May 24, 2022 4:13 pm |
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