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May 27-30 Previews/Friday/Weekend numbers
https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89337		 Page 1 of 3
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri May 20, 2022 8:12 am ]
Post subject:  May 27-30 Previews/Friday/Weekend numbers
Top Gun Maverick 115/149
The Bob's Burgers Movie 12/15

Downton Abbey- -50%
Doctor Strange- -45%
Author:  Rev [ Fri May 20, 2022 8:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Top Gun Maverick 115/149


NOW YOU'RE PREDICTING THAT?!!!! NOW!!! :facepalm:

viewtopic.php?f=12&t=89303
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri May 20, 2022 8:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
It's time for the memorial day record to fall after 15 years, even though I love Pirates 3
Author:  Shack [ Fri May 20, 2022 9:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Top Gun - higher than anyone's prediction. Just has that feel.
Author:  zwackerm [ Fri May 20, 2022 9:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
This will perform like how everyone thought ID42 would perform
Author:  Rev [ Fri May 20, 2022 11:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
This will perform like how everyone thought ID42 would perform

So why are you predicting 115m ???
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri May 20, 2022 5:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Top Gun presales are just uber strong. i am thinking high teens preview along with early shows and around 170-180m over 4 day. This is going to wreck havoc for sure.
Author:  Rolling Thunder [ Fri May 20, 2022 5:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Top Gun is going to slay, though these outrageous gas prices will keep me from watching it on the bigger/better screens. Will have to settle for the local theater.
Author:  Barrabás [ Fri May 20, 2022 10:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Keyser Söze wrote:
Top Gun presales are just uber strong. i am thinking high teens preview along with early shows and around 170-180m over 4 day. This is going to wreck havoc for sure.


$180 million?!

And I was thinking $90-$100M 4-day would be a great result....
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Fri May 20, 2022 11:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
... I'll believe the numbers when I see them but whaaaat?
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Sat May 21, 2022 1:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Rolling Thunder wrote:
Top Gun is going to slay, though these outrageous gas prices will keep me from watching it on the bigger/better screens. Will have to settle for the local theater.


TMobile/Atom is having $5 off any ticket deal and no booking fee. Why dont you use that to see this either in large true Imax or any other PLF like Dolby.
Author:  Rolling Thunder [ Sat May 21, 2022 1:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Keyser Söze wrote:
Rolling Thunder wrote:
Top Gun is going to slay, though these outrageous gas prices will keep me from watching it on the bigger/better screens. Will have to settle for the local theater.


TMobile/Atom is having $5 off any ticket deal and no booking fee. Why dont you use that to see this either in large true Imax or any other PLF like Dolby.


Awesome, thanks Keyser! :thumbsup:
Author:  Excel [ Sat May 21, 2022 5:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
I would be SHOCKED at anything beyond $125m ish for the 4 day. Glad to hear the film is apparently awesome but the original is just SO old. This would have done insane business circa 1995 or possibly even 2000, but in 2022, I will be a skeptic of this films mega blockbuster potential until the moment the numbers prove me wrong. Cruise's beloved MI films cant beyond a certain range, and that series feels much more relevant. We'll have to see.

This reminds me of the internet going nuts for BR49 and look how that went.
Author:  Magic Mike [ Sun May 22, 2022 11:06 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
I'm definitely impressed with the amount of tickets sold for Thursday here. But am skeptical about it opening too huge. I don't see young audiences caring at all and will enough older people be going to movies yet? I still think it's going to do great though. Probably will reach 100 Million for the 4-Day.
Author:  Jonathan [ Sun May 22, 2022 11:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Top Gun: Maverick - $66 million ($81 million 4-day)
The Bob's Burgers Movie - $10.8 million ($12.5 million 4-day)

This could be another Sonic 2 situation on my part, but I'm leery about going too high on a movie that's as much of a wildcard as this. I do expect some strong legs though - if WOM is as good as early reactions indicate, has a strong chance of topping War of the Worlds to become his biggest domestic hit ever.

No idea about Bob's Burgers. I had it higher earlier in the month but I'm not sure if the show's fanbase is passionate enough anymore to rush out to the theater. Is Disney/20th Century even trying very hard with it? Pre-sales are completely non-existent.
Author:  bl1222 [ Sun May 22, 2022 11:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Jonathan wrote:
Top Gun: Maverick - $66 million ($81 million 4-day)
The Bob's Burgers Movie - $10.8 million ($12.5 million 4-day)

This could be another Sonic 2 situation on my part, but I'm leery about going too high on a movie that's as much of a wildcard as this. I do expect some strong legs though - if WOM is as good as early reactions indicate, has a strong chance of topping War of the Worlds to become his biggest domestic hit ever.

No idea about Bob's Burgers. I had it higher earlier in the month but I'm not sure if the show's fanbase is passionate enough anymore to rush out to the theater. Is Disney/20th Century even trying very hard with it? Pre-sales are completely non-existent.


Bob's Burgers came out like 5 years too late. While their ratings are okay by today's standards, I feel like this movie should've come out as a series finale. I'd be shocked if it breaks $10m in the 4-day portion.

I can understand why people are underestimating TG2 because they don't want an overestimation situation like NTTD and BR2049. I hope it opens huge.
Author:  bl1222 [ Sun May 22, 2022 11:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Excel wrote:
I would be SHOCKED at anything beyond $125m ish for the 4 day. Glad to hear the film is apparently awesome but the original is just SO old. This would have done insane business circa 1995 or possibly even 2000, but in 2022, I will be a skeptic of this films mega blockbuster potential until the moment the numbers prove me wrong. Cruise's beloved MI films cant beyond a certain range, and that series feels much more relevant. We'll have to see.

This reminds me of the internet going nuts for BR49 and look how that went.


BR2049 had a longer run time and had a much stricter rating.
Author:  zwackerm [ Sun May 22, 2022 3:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
bl1222 wrote:
Excel wrote:
I would be SHOCKED at anything beyond $125m ish for the 4 day. Glad to hear the film is apparently awesome but the original is just SO old. This would have done insane business circa 1995 or possibly even 2000, but in 2022, I will be a skeptic of this films mega blockbuster potential until the moment the numbers prove me wrong. Cruise's beloved MI films cant beyond a certain range, and that series feels much more relevant. We'll have to see.

This reminds me of the internet going nuts for BR49 and look how that went.


BR2049 had a longer run time and had a much stricter rating.

Plus the original Blade Runner was a cult hit that became popular after theatrical. It should not be discounted that the original Top Gun adjusts to well over 400m and was the top movie of 1986.

The marketing for this has been EXCELLENT. I know people of all ages who want to see this. It has the perfect release date as well, it's the exact type of movie you watch on Memorial Day.

Hopefully Stranger Things and Obi Wan don't hurt it.
Author:  Shack [ Mon May 23, 2022 2:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Could Stranger Things and Obi Wan Kenobi coming out on Friday hurt the gross? A lot going on at once
Author:  zwackerm [ Mon May 23, 2022 3:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Shack wrote:
Could Stranger Things and Obi Wan Kenobi coming out on Friday hurt the gross? A lot going on at once


Should lead to more backloading but the overall gross should be unaffected
Author:  Magic Mike [ Tue May 24, 2022 2:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Bob's Burgers has great reviews. I'd seen the first few episodes years ago and did enjoy them. With the reviews I'm actually really wanting to see the movie. Hopefully I'd be able to follow ok even without being that familiar with the show.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Tue May 24, 2022 1:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Tuesday shows are near sellouts at most places. Based on tracking its going to do 4m just from Tuesday and another 200-300K tomorrow with investor connect shows(plus few shows at drafthouse). Let us see how final week surge goes. I am optimistic the worst case for this is 150m.
Author:  Corpse [ Tue May 24, 2022 1:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
I know it's a pretty popular show, but wouldn't have expected THAT much potential. Upset incoming?
Author:  zwackerm [ Tue May 24, 2022 2:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Fantastic Beasts will be at like 96m by Monday. Too bad it's going to HBO max so soon, could've been pushed to 100m
Author:  Steve [ Tue May 24, 2022 4:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: May 27-30 Predictions
Corpse wrote:
I know it's a pretty popular show, but wouldn't have expected THAT much potential. Upset incoming?

I’m pretty sure Keyzer’s post was referring to Top Gun, not Bob’s Burgers…
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