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 January 20-22 Predictions 

What will be number 3?
Puss in Boots 29%  29%  [ 2 ]
Plane 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
M3gan 43%  43%  [ 3 ]
Missing 14%  14%  [ 1 ]
Other 14%  14%  [ 1 ]
Total votes : 7

 January 20-22 Predictions 
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Hold the door!

Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
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Post January 20-22 Predictions
Missing- 7m
The Son- Is this still releasing this week? Sub 2m
Women Talking- 3m


Fri Jan 13, 2023 9:19 am
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Extraordinary

Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Two weekends ago Otto played strongest in the heartland (Dallas, Chicago, Phoenix, Salt Like City, as well as Columbus, Minneapolis, Nashville and Milwaukee). This weekend it went nationwide.

Curious how WOM translates here but wouldn't be shocked by it possibly rising to #2 over the next few weeks.


Sun Jan 15, 2023 6:49 pm
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Dont Mess with the Gez
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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Missing could go as high as Plane numbers but $6-$8m is probably where it will end up which would be decent.

The other openers are duds.

Agreed that Otto will hold well over the next month. So to will Puss and Avatar offcourse.

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Sun Jan 15, 2023 7:48 pm
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Veteran
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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
No wide release for Women Talking this weekend

https://deadline.com/2023/01/the-whale- ... 235222492/

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Mon Jan 16, 2023 8:06 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Otto grossed a whopping $2,210,000 on Tuesday dropping just 14% from MLK day. It's at $23,836,472 but with a daily like that, even with discount Tuesday this could beat last weekend's $12,828,785 3day.

WOM is clearly getting out there. Also, did you know apparently no NYC or LA theaters are in Otto's top 50 theaters? It's playing strongly in the heartland and at the rate its going I'm expecting a mini TGM here in terms of legs and durability with it resonating so well.


Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:58 pm
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Hold the door!

Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
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Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Business will pick up in NY/LA, no? Not everyone there is an elitist haha


Wed Jan 18, 2023 1:26 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Otto is having a very strange box office run and giving eerie nostalgia vibes of the early days of MBFGW.

Played weekend 1 in 4 theaters in LA/NYC for $14,064 PTA. Distributors were underwhelmed.

Played weekend 2 in 637 theaters where PTA only dropped in half but biggest business was in the heartland.

Played weekend 3 in 3800 theaters where PTA dropped a little less than half to $3,374 and with no LA/NYC in sight in the top 50 theaters.

Otto could very well turn the adult skewing film release pattern of the last two years on its head. A limited NYC/LA run didn't give Otto much buzz to translate it to a wider success, it's middle of the country mid level expansion did. That clearly also elevated TGM to record setting heights.

It's PTA holds have been exceptional to lose 76% from 4 theaters to 3800. It's coming from 3 of the 4 producers behind My Big Fat Greek Wedding so I wonder if we are on the cusp of that type of run.

Deadline article has more context here: https://deadline.com/2023/01/a-man-call ... 235223501/


Wed Jan 18, 2023 1:50 pm
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Hold the door!

Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm
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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Otto will be over 10m again this weekend.


Wed Jan 18, 2023 1:58 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Avatar: The Way of Water $2,800,000 -38% $574,482,103
A Man Called Otto $2,210,000 $23,836,472
M3GAN $1.4M -48%
PUSS IN BOOTS 2 $1.2M -20%
PLANE $1M

Otto within 21% of Avatar. :noway: Though Avatar plays less well midweek compared to weekends I wonder if Otto has a chance at winning the last weekend of Jan?


Wed Jan 18, 2023 2:37 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
O wrote:
It's PTA holds have been exceptional to lose 76% from 4 theaters to 3800. It's coming from 3 of the 4 producers behind My Big Fat Greek Wedding so I wonder if we are on the cusp of that type of run.

Deadline article has more context here: https://deadline.com/2023/01/a-man-call ... 235223501/


Not a chance. These are different times. It will be leggy but I don't know if we will ever see something like My Big Fat Greek Wedding again.


Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:04 pm
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Indiana Jones IV

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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
Not a chance. These are different times. It will be leggy but I don't know if we will ever see something like My Big Fat Greek Wedding again.

I agree that it’s extremely unlikely, and I think the same thing could’ve been said about an uber-blockbuster performing like Top Gun Maverick. I think the different times argument could be made in favor of these “never see a performance like that” potentials too.

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Thu Jan 19, 2023 2:42 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Steve wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
Not a chance. These are different times. It will be leggy but I don't know if we will ever see something like My Big Fat Greek Wedding again.

I agree that it’s extremely unlikely, and I think the same thing could’ve been said about an uber-blockbuster performing like Top Gun Maverick. I think the different times argument could be made in favor of these “never see a performance like that” potentials too.


I do agree. But Top Gun is also a movie that benefits from the big screen. Otto will play the same at home.


Thu Jan 19, 2023 5:08 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Missing preview $760,000


Fri Jan 20, 2023 12:06 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
That's quite good for it.


Fri Jan 20, 2023 6:40 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Friday #'s starting to come:

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish $2,750,000 -10% $117,710,470
M3GAN $2,620,000 -46% $66,107,510
The Whale $360,930 -16%
The Fabelmans $120,000 -11% $14,666,575

With the inflated Sunday from last weekend's holiday, Puss could still manage a 20% drop this weekend. It's 31st day is just 14.1% below its 1st!


Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:33 am
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Wallflower
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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Fantastic hold for Puss. It's proving to be very leggy.

Compared to all of the strong Friday to Friday holds for adult skewing movies like The Whale and The Fabelmans that Friday to Friday drop for Otto is pretty bad.


Sat Jan 21, 2023 12:06 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Avatar's looking like it might just pass $20M for maybe a high 30% drop for the weekend. Would need a 7.0 multiplier to get to TGM so now without a re-release of some sort it's looking like less of a possibility.

Missing did great. It made in 1 day what it could have over the weekend. It's budget is only $4.2M so it's already a massive success and going to be highly profitable.

First underwhelming # for Otto in a while. Made $2,188,354 on Tuesday so $2.6M Friday feels like it should have been much more.


Sat Jan 21, 2023 3:25 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Puss in Boots is doing really fantastic.


Sat Jan 21, 2023 11:39 pm
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Extraordinary

Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm
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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Some weekend #'s

Avatar: The Way of Water $19,685,000 -40% $597,961,353
Puss in Boots $11.5M -21% $126,460,470
M3GAN $9.8M -46% $73,287,510
Missing $9.3M (already over its $7M budget)
A Man Called Otto $9,000,000 -30% $35,346,249
Plane $5,250,000 -49% $19,457,616
House Party $1,775,000 -55% $7,185,508
That Time I Got Reincarnated As a Slime: Scarle… $1,459,515
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever $1,397,000 -43% $451,877,752
The Whale $1,281,249 -15% $13,191,971

The openers overall in January have mostly all overperformed or at least met expectations.

Puss In Boots only dropped 21% due to the steeper Sunday drop from the holiday last week. Otherwise it's Fri/Sat drops average to about 10%. I expect it could drop close to there next weekend for another $10M+ weekend. Puss needs a 7.39 multiplier from here on out to get to $200M. It's still a ways away but if it can hold on to theaters until Mario has a dark horse chance to happen. I have it projected at about $175M-180M total right now.

Avatar now needs a 7.15 multiplier to get to TGM which doesn't look like it will happen. Feels like it will make it up to #7 on the all time domestic chart to beat Avengers: Infinity War's $678,815,482 but just miss BP1's $700,426,566.

Otto dropped more than expected from some of its dailies but 30% off a holiday weekend isn't bad either. Would probably have dropped mid 20s otherwise.


Last edited by O on Sun Jan 22, 2023 1:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Sun Jan 22, 2023 12:01 pm
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Wallflower
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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Impressive start for Missing. Should be able to reach Searching's total at least but could definitely surpass it. Should hold pretty well next weekend.


Sun Jan 22, 2023 1:03 pm
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The Kramer
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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Bigger drop for Avatar, and the actual could be lower with all the snow today. Though it is coming off a holiday weekend I suppose. Looks like it'll have one more week at #1 as even a mid opening for Knock At The Cabin should be enough to take the top spot.

Doing Searching from the kid's point of view instead of the parent makes it much less depressing and thus more accessible. I wasn't expectng Missing to do so well, but now that it has it seems obvious.


Sun Jan 22, 2023 4:11 pm
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The Incredible Hulk

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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
The Way of Water still has the highest average per theater this weekend. It actually made more than twice of a Man Called Otto despite having less theatre count.


Mon Jan 23, 2023 8:49 am
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Romosexual!
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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
pookpooi wrote:
The Way of Water still has the highest average per theater this weekend. It actually made more than twice of a Man Called Otto despite having less theatre count.


:showoff: :showoff: :showoff: :showoff: :showoff:

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Mon Jan 23, 2023 2:52 pm
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Extraordinary

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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Avatar continues to dominate the box office, earning $20,133,106 this weekend and showing a strong hold despite a 38.7% drop from last weekend's results.

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish came in a close second, with a solid performance and an 18.4% drop from last weekend's results.

M3GAN also had a strong showing, earning $9,704,905 and showing a 47% drop from last weekend's results.

All in all, it was a competitive weekend at the box office with some films holding strong and others showing a decline.

Spoiler: show
This box office weekend analysis was written by ChapGPT. It's getting pretty good! :cool:


Mon Jan 23, 2023 9:36 pm
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Post Re: January 20-22 Predictions
Spoiler: show
I love ChatGPT. Good writeup. haha

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I was blind, but now I see.


Tue Jan 24, 2023 12:35 am
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