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 April 28-30 Predictions 

Which will open higher?
Poniyin Selvin 60%  60%  [ 3 ]
Sisu 40%  40%  [ 2 ]
Total votes : 5

 April 28-30 Predictions 
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Post April 28-30 Predictions
Are You There God? It’s me Margaret- 14m
This is shockingly tracking in the high teens. Dunno why. Seems optimistic to me.
Big George Foreman- 8m
Poniyin Selvin 2- 4m
Sisu- 2m

Beau is Afraid will expand further this weekend but I expect it will stall at this point.


Fri Apr 21, 2023 8:23 am
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Dont Mess with the Gez
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
Margaret is a very well known book so high teens wouldn’t surprise me.

George Foreman could have broken out but doesn’t look to be getting a big push.

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Fri Apr 21, 2023 10:07 am
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The Kramer
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
Would love to see The Black Demon in theaters but I doubt it gets much of a release. Should be in July releasing right before Shark Week.


Fri Apr 21, 2023 9:25 pm
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
Margeret has negligible presales at this point. Evil Dead had way more last sunday. I am not buying a big OW. other openers dont matter as well. Mario will have a great hold(may be make a play for low 40s 4th weekend) while rest of the holdovers that did well this weekend should continue to do so next weekend as well.

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Mon Apr 24, 2023 12:31 am
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
I think any opening above $10M could be considered a win for Margaret. I know it's based on a classic book, but it's been ages since we had a coming of age film break out at the box office, especially one centered on a woman. Luckily it sounds like the movie is a crowd-pleaser, so if it opens high enough it could have pretty good legs, especially with Mothers Day coming up.

Any word on how Poniyin Selvin 2 presales are compared to other Indian films? The first one did quite well last fall.


Mon Apr 24, 2023 8:31 am
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
Mario $37m-40m 4th weekend coming up

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Mon Apr 24, 2023 11:12 am
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
Sisu has been all over YouTube advertising. It looks great.

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Mon Apr 24, 2023 11:30 am
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
Jonathan wrote:
Any word on how Poniyin Selvin 2 presales are compared to other Indian films? The first one did quite well last fall.


As far as what I see it seems to be below PS1. Not sure how these movies work anyway in terms of building hype.

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Mon Apr 24, 2023 11:48 am
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Would love to see The Black Demon in theaters but I doubt it gets much of a release. Should be in July releasing right before Shark Week.


I am hoping I'll get the chance to. Some theater I go to has to get it. :sweat: But yes it should have released in the summer.


Tue Apr 25, 2023 12:14 am
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
Feeling Margaret is going to do well and have a leggy run. At the very least will be big once it hits streaming.

Getting vibes of a mini Marley and Me. It's got Rachel McAdams who for wide releases has had a pretty consistent run of box office runs aside from Aloha. Also noticed it has James L. Brooks producing his first movie in 7 years. He's been a producer on Big and Jerry Maguire and seems to be very good at these sentimental movies.

The Rotten Tomatoes score is still at 96% from 26 reviews. Will start small but have a decent run.


Tue Apr 25, 2023 1:47 am
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Would love to see The Black Demon in theaters but I doubt it gets much of a release. Should be in July releasing right before Shark Week.


I am hoping I'll get the chance to. Some theater I go to has to get it. :sweat: But yes it should have released in the summer.
My local AMC (and the one a bit further out) aren't getting it or Sisu or Return of the Jedi. :(

Stupid Margaret. How about you solve your own damn problems and not write a book that will eventually be adapted into a movie? I dam thee to the inferno!


Tue Apr 25, 2023 11:35 am
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
Libs on Twitter are upset that Margaret is rated PG-13. Cuz God forbid parents are warned about a film having sexual content. They want a Pg so parents will plop their kids down in front of it unsupervised


Last edited by zwackerm on Tue Apr 25, 2023 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.



Tue Apr 25, 2023 12:07 pm
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
Libs always was a real stickler for mpaa ratings. She probably campaigned for Magic Mike and 50 Shades of Grey to also be PG.


Tue Apr 25, 2023 12:45 pm
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Libs on Twitter are upset that Margaret is rated PG-13. Cuz God forbid parents are warned about a film having sexual content. They want a Pg so parents will plop their kids down in front of it unsupervised


Just like the pathetic grovelling from Kevin Bacon regarding drag queens. Embarrassing.

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Tue Apr 25, 2023 7:21 pm
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
97% RT/85 MC is pretty legit, higher than Edge of Seventeen but lower than Lady Bird. Possibly has an outside chance at BP nomination too.

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Tue Apr 25, 2023 8:01 pm
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
Still think it can do $13-$15m OW and then solid legs to a robust gross.

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Tue Apr 25, 2023 8:09 pm
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Would love to see The Black Demon in theaters but I doubt it gets much of a release. Should be in July releasing right before Shark Week.


I am hoping I'll get the chance to. Some theater I go to has to get it. :sweat: But yes it should have released in the summer.
My local AMC (and the one a bit further out) aren't getting it or Sisu or Return of the Jedi. :(

Stupid Margaret. How about you solve your own damn problems and not write a book that will eventually be adapted into a movie? I dam thee to the inferno!


Thankfully a few theaters in my state are getting The Black Demon.. I'll go on Tuesday.


Wed Apr 26, 2023 12:56 am
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Sbil

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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Libs always was a real stickler for mpaa ratings. She probably campaigned for Magic Mike and 50 Shades of Grey to also be PG.


Idk man the thought of pearl clutchers being horrified by Judy Blume and tween girls talking about periods is pretty funny to me

For the record I do think the rating seems ridiculous but the MPAA has always been a ridiculous institution, nothing new here.


Wed Apr 26, 2023 6:19 pm
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
Still strongly feel this will not hit 10m. Previews will be like 0.5m. I dont see weekend hitting 10m with that. Even Friday sales are anemic.

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Wed Apr 26, 2023 7:55 pm
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
Keyser Söze wrote:
Still strongly feel this will not hit 10m. Previews will be like 0.5m. I dont see weekend hitting 10m with that. Even Friday sales are anemic.


Where is box office.com getting its tracking from?


Wed Apr 26, 2023 10:25 pm
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Keyser Söze wrote:
Still strongly feel this will not hit 10m. Previews will be like 0.5m. I dont see weekend hitting 10m with that. Even Friday sales are anemic.


Where is box office.com getting its tracking from?


Its not based on ticket sales but on metrics like General Awareness/Definite Interest/First Choice numbers. That is how industry tracking predicts OW. Like the 125m OW for Guardians. But during release week they generally update taking ticket sales into equation. look for boxoffice.com update tomorrow. I would be surprised if they stayed that high.

Example was Shazam. Industry tracking had it 35-40m. obviously it did hit that.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movie ... 235332509/

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Thu Apr 27, 2023 1:08 am
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
Mario is down 38% week on week and its not as if there were any holiday boost last week. Friday increase should hopefully be better but would it be enough for it to hit 40m. Only time will tell.

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Thu Apr 27, 2023 7:39 pm
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Post Re: April 28-30 Predictions
Magic Mike wrote:
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Magic Mike wrote:
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Would love to see The Black Demon in theaters but I doubt it gets much of a release. Should be in July releasing right before Shark Week.


I am hoping I'll get the chance to. Some theater I go to has to get it. :sweat: But yes it should have released in the summer.
My local AMC (and the one a bit further out) aren't getting it or Sisu or Return of the Jedi. :(

Stupid Margaret. How about you solve your own damn problems and not write a book that will eventually be adapted into a movie? I dam thee to the inferno!


Thankfully a few theaters in my state are getting The Black Demon.. I'll go on Tuesday.
Lemme know if it's a "rent on itunes" movie or "wait till it hits scifi channel" movie!


Sat Apr 29, 2023 2:18 pm
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