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October 22-24 predictions
https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=88643		 Page 2 of 2
Author:  bl1222 [ Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Trimming my prediction of Dune to $35M OW ($82M final total)

Ron's Gone Wrong OW - $4M
Author:  Steve [ Thu Oct 21, 2021 12:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
O wrote:
Anything over $30M is a win IMO for Dune. I think following 3 $50M+ OW's just has risen expectations too high already.

I agree with this. Of course I’m hoping it does well (huge fan of Villeneuve, big fan of Chalamet and the book), but honestly not expecting it to. Since the first trailer I’ve thought this would be a tough sell and more likely to bomb than break out.

Would love to be proven wrong but I’m thinking between $20m and $30m OW.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Thu Oct 21, 2021 1:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
I am thinking 5m previews and mid to late 30's OW. Very Presales driven OW for Dune.
Author:  zwackerm [ Thu Oct 21, 2021 1:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Industry besides WB is expecting 50m, while WB is publicly hoping for 30-35m. Hopefully it can trend up and have good WOM that this "has to be seen on the biggest screen possible"
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Thu Oct 21, 2021 2:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
At this point an opening above GvK's 3-day would be a win. WB sacrificing their slate and all the Ls they're taking hopefully ensures this never happens again.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Thu Oct 21, 2021 2:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Dune is releasing at 6 on HBO, likely ending any chance of me (and many others) waiting till the weekend to see it in theaters.
Author:  Barrabás [ Thu Oct 21, 2021 3:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
I've done my part and convinced seven friends to all go together in IMAX. That's like $150 for the box office.

Please don't flop.

*prayer circle*
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Thu Oct 21, 2021 4:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
The % for premium screens should be very high. The IMAX 6:00 I'm going to is pretty full while all the regular screens have like 3 seats sold.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
its walkups so far look better than Bond couple of weeks ago. May be 5.5m previews and OW is low 40s could happen. Let us see how the weekend goes.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
I wonder how will be WoM on this one. It's a very long movie with elaborate dialogues and very little action. I don't think that helped BR2049 so we will see.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Keyser Söze wrote:
its walkups so far look better than Bond couple of weeks ago. May be 5.5m previews and OW is low 40s could happen. Let us see how the weekend goes.

40m would be very good, hope it happens. Was thinking walkups would be weak with the early premiere on Max
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Generally the walk-ups for these simultaneous releases are weak over weekend. The fans who want to see the movie rush over Thursday and Friday.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Thu Oct 21, 2021 7:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote:
Generally the walk-ups for these simultaneous releases are weak over weekend. The fans who want to see the movie rush over Thursday and Friday.


fans reserve tickets ahead of time. That is why it had huge day 1(ahead of everything this year barring 2 MCU movies BW and SC. it finished close to SC Day 1). Walkups being good today suggests casual audience will show up. What I could see of Saturday PS also looks good. Being in fall, Saturday number will be good. It will definitely increase minus previews(i am expecting in 10-15%). Of course Sunday drop wont be great.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Keyser I don't think we should compare this to MCU movies. I do agree being a known IP but an origins sci-fi would get a lot more casual audience. I believe GvK would be the right comparison for this.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Thu Oct 21, 2021 11:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
I got surveyed on Dune getting out of the theater lol
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Fri Oct 22, 2021 1:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Previews should end up tad over 5m. Hopefully OW is over 40m. Let us see how things go tomorrow.

That said previews did taper off earlier than what I thought.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri Oct 22, 2021 2:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
publicenemy#1 wrote:
I got surveyed on Dune getting out of the theater lol


You see how Cinemascore are biased now :P
Author:  Kenspy [ Fri Oct 22, 2021 9:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
Keyser Söze wrote:
Previews should end up tad over 5m. Hopefully OW is over 40m. Let us see how things go tomorrow.

That said previews did taper off earlier than what I thought.


That'd be a mere 25% more than Suicide Squad...pretty disappointing
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri Oct 22, 2021 11:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: October 22-24 predictions
That would BE 25% MORE than Suicide Squad... It's an achievement.
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