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bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm Posts: 3900
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June 18-20 Predictions
The Hitman's Wife's Bodyguard - $10M (5-day) A Quiet Place 2 will be #1 again with a 25% drop or less.
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Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:45 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18876 Location: San Diego
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
I didn't realize HWB was opening on Wednesday. For 5-day I don't see over 15 million.
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Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:21 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
I can see HWB surprising but not big enough with $15m for 3-day and not do much over weekdays.
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Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:52 pm |
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thompsoncory
Rachel McAdams Fan
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:13 am Posts: 14544 Location: LA / NYC
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
Luca is actually playing theatrically in LA and I have tickets for Saturday. I'm sure they won't report numbers though.
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Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:04 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23772 Location: Classified
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
I’d give Luca $25M if it opened with Disney+ and $30M without.
HWB seems like a flop, a sequel no one asked for with bad review, but maybe people will turn up for Reynolds? $9M 3-day weekend.
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Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:37 am |
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Corpse
Don't Dream It, Be It
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:45 pm Posts: 37152 Location: The Graveyard
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
Luca feels like such a misfire. I'd be going to see it opening weekend for sure if it was available. And I imagine many others, especially families, are looking for something to see out of their homes finally. (Peter Rabbit 2, Spirit, etc. don't count. Nobody wants to see those ad their first big family outing/return to theaters).
_________________Japan Box Office “Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.” “We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.” “There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.” “You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.” "Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."
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Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:46 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
I don't understand why they are bothering to release Luca in a few theaters after that moronic release strategy.
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Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:53 am |
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bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm Posts: 3900
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
I'm sure Soul would've outgrossed Onward had it been released to theaters even with the Premier Access. If Luca gets Soul-type reviews, Disney made a huge mistake on this one sending it straight to Disney+.
As for THWB, I'm looking at a couple of theaters in my area and it has sold very few tickets. I'm thinking $7M 5-day and it's not impossible it's opening weekend will be below Cruella's 4th weekend.
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Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:11 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20344 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
Im feeling Luca is gonna get Brave/Onward level reviews which is why they sent it to Disney Plus rather than theaters.
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Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:36 am |
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bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm Posts: 3900
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
zwackerm wrote: Im feeling Luca is gonna get Brave/Onward level reviews which is why they sent it to Disney Plus rather than theaters. People would say the same thing about Soul except that COVID cases during Christmas time were at all-time highs, while now cases are dramatically down. Don't get me wrong, I'm excited to watch Luca for no extra cost on Disney+ this weekend but I'm sad it will lose money for it due to the pandemic.
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Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:45 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20344 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
Oh I’m sad too. But I thought soul would be good. I’m expecting like 75% at RT for Luca.
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Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:02 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23772 Location: Classified
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
Yeah Luca holding its reviews this long is kinda strange. Usually that is a huge part of the marketing for Pixar.
Also, its not too late to fix the mistake! Put it in theaters, be #1 for the weekend and just enjoy the double dip!
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Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:29 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
I don't think Disney would spend money on prints this late. Plus releasing in theaters would require last minute marketing and other smaller things. This cannot be rectified now and as far as the reviews are concerned I'm sure they have no way to release the movie earlier thus the delay. Disney is still not great as a technology company.
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Mon Jun 14, 2021 6:59 pm |
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bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm Posts: 3900
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
THWB needs to open at least $3.5-4M tomorrow to be #1 this weekend. Even if it makes the top spot, AQP2 will still have an awesome hold. Still confident in THWB missing the top spot, though. Final projections: $2.3M (includes Tuesday previews) $1.2M Thursday $2.1M Friday $2.2M Saturday $1.8M Sunday $6.1M 3-day $9.6M 5-day
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Tue Jun 15, 2021 7:07 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
I don't understand why THWB is a Wednesday release. Is there a holiday or something in States? I expect subdued weekday numbers indicating this will be a colossal flop but then recover over weekend. There is just no need/rush for audience to see this over weekdays.
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Tue Jun 15, 2021 8:33 pm |
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bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm Posts: 3900
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote: I don't understand why THWB is a Wednesday release. Is there a holiday or something in States? I expect subdued weekday numbers indicating this will be a colossal flop but then recover over weekend. There is just no need/rush for audience to see this over weekdays. Probably to spread positive WOM.
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Tue Jun 15, 2021 8:51 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
Yeah but I'm sure they knew that they didn't have highest quality product on their hand. If part one couldn't land how would the sequel improve upon it.
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Wed Jun 16, 2021 2:04 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20344 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
Luca has 2 reviews, one that’s 7.5/10 and one that’s 9/10
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Wed Jun 16, 2021 9:55 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
zwackerm wrote: Luca has 2 reviews, one that’s 7.5/10 and one that’s 9/10 Well it's Pixar so not too surprising.
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Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:19 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20344 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
Now it’s at 90% but it’s at a 7.1 avg. rating.
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Wed Jun 16, 2021 2:43 pm |
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Spidey
Teenage Dream
Joined: Mon Oct 18, 2004 8:13 pm Posts: 10677
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
Disney really should have kept Luca as a theatrical release. This would have been the perfect weekend to release it.
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Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:36 pm |
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bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm Posts: 3900
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
THFW only got a B in CinemaScore. WOM is definitely mixed at best.
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Thu Jun 17, 2021 9:01 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
That's better CS than the reviews suggest so it's a marginal victory for HWB, I guess
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Thu Jun 17, 2021 9:26 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20344 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
Luca seems like a lower tier Pixar film but still really good from the reviews.
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Thu Jun 17, 2021 9:39 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: June 18-20 Predictions
zwackerm wrote: Luca seems like a lower tier Pixar film but still really good from the reviews. I don't get it. How does it seem low-tier Pixar output?
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Thu Jun 17, 2021 9:51 am |
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