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Weekend Estimates
https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=88301		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:43 am ]
Post subject:  Weekend Estimates
Conjuring - $24m
Spirit - $6.2m
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
I think that's a decent opening for Conjuring. Everyone I saw on social media watched it on HBO Max lol
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:33 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
That is slightly lower but still a good opening for TC3 though I don't expect great legs for it.
Author:  Thegun [ Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
So about 125 million for AQP2, 65-70 million for Cruella, 55 if lucky for C3, and like a dollar over 100 million for GVK. While I feel optimistic for a few surprises this summer I feel like there are only 4 locks left for 100 million (F9, Black Widow, Suicide Squad and 10 Rings.

But I think that makes the summer particularly exciting, we really have no idea how one movie or weekend will perform based on the next. I'd say In the Heights, Jungle Cruise, HT3, Boss Baby, Space Jam, Candyman, Reminiscence, and Free Guy are the only ones with any chances to flirt with and break past 100 million. Everything else kind of looks like it'll be in that Cruella 65-85 million range.
Author:  O [ Sun Jun 06, 2021 2:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
The randomness of the box office right now actually makes this one of the most exciting times ever to be tracking films. There are very rare times that the rules of box office get re-written and I think this is one of them. Combine that with the AMC meme circus and makes it even more fascinating.

Others: Jaws release and rise of the "blockbuster." 2001/2002's rapid rise in opening weekends. Early 2010's rapid rise of international box office. Avatar's 3D bump.

The post pandemic demise of the theatrical window and box office recovery could become the most exciting box office tracking times over the past 50 years. It's anyone's guess for practical every weekly release! :cool:
Author:  Thegun [ Sun Jun 06, 2021 3:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
It'll be interesting, perhaps the last few years of lesser 100-200 million films vs sub 100 and 300+ might see a reverse for a little bit, also there is something to the fact that streaming and a year without theaters will play with some demographics, which I think will be more important than the genre itself.

Hitman's Bodyguard could open to 15 million just as easily as it could to mid 30s due to the lack of comedy options in theaters. It's kind of crazy there isn't really one comedy this whole summer. Ryan Reynolds might be the closest people get.

For instance, I honestly think kid films, animated especially might see some of the biggest drop offs. Boss Baby. A year ago even before I saw that lackluster trailer I would have thought it was a no brainer sequel that does better than the original. But even before the pandemic the Boss Baby has a hit netflix version in show format. It'll be interesting to see if kids would even want to go to a theater anymore when it's so easily available, also you parents who can throw them right into their own living rooms with headphones, snacks, and some parents are still going to be concerned for well being.
Author:  Mau [ Sun Jun 06, 2021 4:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
Can we even call F9 a lock fro $100mil?
Author:  Shack [ Sun Jun 06, 2021 5:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
Thegun wrote:
Hitman's Bodyguard could open to 15 million just as easily as it could to mid 30s due to the lack of comedy options in theaters. It's kind of crazy there isn't really one comedy this whole summer. Ryan Reynolds might be the closest people get.


I think they should have moved Free Guy up. Or maybe it's a great position for it and Suicide Squad to come out so late in summer since only about a month after Black Widow people could be in more of a June/July mindset by August.

Black Widow is about 9-10 weeks late compared to a normal year. So using that logic

A Quiet Place 2 - March
F9, In the Heights - April
Black Widow, Space Jam, Old, Jungle Cruise, Boss Baby - May
Suicide Squad, Free Guy - June
Shang Chi, Venom, Dune - July
No Time to Die - August

The comparison looks pretty good until about mid "June" after Suicide Squad and Free Guy (real life late August) where it dies until Shang Chi comes out and then July still isn't that great. They could use a film like Ghostbusters Afterlife or Top Gun there in the fake June/July or put the King's Man out of its misery at last.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Jun 06, 2021 5:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
Something like a Pixar film would be great for the box office in the week between ITH and F9. Too bad we don’t have one of those completed and ready for release...
Author:  O [ Sun Jun 06, 2021 5:48 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Something like a Pixar film would be great for the box office in the week between ITH and F9. Too bad we don’t have one of those completed and ready for release...


We do (Luca) but it's going right to Disney Plus in 2 weeks.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Sun Jun 06, 2021 6:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
Lol pretty sure Flav was being sarcastic. Yeah honestly putting Luca to Disney+ only is silly. I don't think it's gonna push subscriber count up much and would've done pretty well in theaters.
Author:  MadGez [ Sun Jun 06, 2021 8:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
Yeah the Disney for Luca leaves a lot to be desired. It and BW should have received 14-21 days theatrical before hitting D+
Author:  O [ Sun Jun 06, 2021 10:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
publicenemy#1 wrote:
Lol pretty sure Flav was being sarcastic. Yeah honestly putting Luca to Disney+ only is silly. I don't think it's gonna push subscriber count up much and would've done pretty well in theaters.


:cool: Whoops missed that.

Maybe Luca sucks quality wise? There isn't even an exclusive time window on it like there was for Raya and Cruella.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Mon Jun 07, 2021 1:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
The release of Luca is such a mystery. I don't understand why Disney is still pushing for D+ release after so many movies including Cruella did so well in theaters.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Mon Jun 07, 2021 11:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Weekend Estimates
I’d understand if they released it in May, since D+ had barely any new content last month. But they will already have Loki going strong by the 18th...

I will happily watch it at home next weekend though. :yes:
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