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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18843 Location: San Diego
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Predict Black Widow Thursday previews/weekend
... I'm pretty sure this will have previews since Cruella had them. Premiere Access won't be available till midnight.
I think this will easily double A Quiet Place's previews, and I'm guessing capacity will be increased by that weekend.
I'm gonna go with $12.5m rn.
Last edited by publicenemy#1 on Sun Jul 04, 2021 12:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Thu Jun 03, 2021 1:53 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20302 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews
Capacity should be at 100% almost everywhere by then. I’m thinking 12-15m.
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Thu Jun 03, 2021 2:04 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36915
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews
$20m.
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Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:39 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18843 Location: San Diego
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews
Going to increase my prediction to $15.5m.
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Fri Jun 25, 2021 10:56 pm |
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mark66
Extraordinary
Joined: Thu Dec 15, 2005 2:41 pm Posts: 13041 Location: Augsburg (2,038 years young)
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews
$7.0m
I didn't believe in the movie before the pandemic and I sure don't believe in the movie now...
_________________ Nothing Compares 2 U
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Sun Jun 27, 2021 5:03 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18843 Location: San Diego
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews
Less than F9 is absolutely not happening.
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Sun Jun 27, 2021 6:22 pm |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23695 Location: Classified
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews
I don’t think beating F9 is a lock for the weekend, but it should do big previews since it won’t be on Disney+ until the next day. $8M previews for a $65-70M weekend looks right.
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Sun Jun 27, 2021 7:07 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20302 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews
I think without Disney plus this does 100m +. We’ve yet to have a premiere access title do super well in theaters though, both Raya and Cruella disappointed. So I think it will make plenty of money regardless of whether it’s in theaters or on streaming
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Sun Jun 27, 2021 8:08 pm |
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O
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2005 1:53 pm Posts: 11452
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews
There's not much public data out there, but the Disney+ premiere access seems to have a more limited effect on box office than the free version by a mile so still think Black Widow will open well and should beat Fast9. Lots of Disney Plus subscribers probably don't want to pay extra.
Raya only had 1 drop over 33% in its first 13 weekends in theaters. When made available for free on Disney+ on June 4th, Raya's next 4 weekend drops were -45%, -84%, -51% and -54%, dropping from $2.8M to $45K in 4 weekends (-98.3%).
Cruella will also manage to get close to 90M before it's free release. Think at best that would have done $115-125M with an exclusive theatrical release in current times.
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Mon Jun 28, 2021 12:43 am |
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charlie jat
Star Trek XI
Joined: Thu Oct 15, 2020 1:22 am Posts: 393
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews
15-18M. Pre-sales currently suggest lower end but I can see them increase in final days
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Mon Jun 28, 2021 4:45 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18843 Location: San Diego
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews
charlie jat wrote: 15-18M. Pre-sales currently suggest lower end but I can see them increase in final days Ya been lurking the BOT tracking thread lol Very very keen to see how this does. Raya and Cruella both had great legs but muted openings. This will probably be the opposite but I don't think legs will be that bad.
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Mon Jun 28, 2021 12:51 pm |
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rftapeout
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:20 pm Posts: 92
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews
People seem to forget that women are more afraid of Covid then men. I think women would be more willing to pay the $29.99 and watch the movie at home rather than go to the theaters and buy tickets. Black Widow will do better than F9 in the opening weekend but not twice as well as F9. I'm going with $10 million Thursday previews.
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Tue Jun 29, 2021 1:04 pm |
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Rolling Thunder
Forum General
Joined: Fri Nov 19, 2004 12:11 pm Posts: 9148 Location: Kentucky Bluegrass
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews
$16m. I don't care how big my TV is, I won't ever pay $29.99 to watch a film at home.
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Tue Jun 29, 2021 1:19 pm |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20302 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews
Review embargo lifted, looks like it’s a lesser tier marvel film. At 86% and usually Marvel films start high and go down all the way to release.
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Tue Jun 29, 2021 1:42 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18843 Location: San Diego
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews/weekend
I guess we can predict OW here.
I think opening range will be 85-110. I think I'll go with 102 rn.
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Sun Jul 04, 2021 12:27 am |
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Screen203
Newbie
Joined: Sat Mar 13, 2021 4:15 pm Posts: 4
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews/weekend
I think 100m+ is definitely possible, which would be a great sign of recovery.
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Sun Jul 04, 2021 1:17 pm |
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neo_wolf
Extraordinary
Joined: Sun Oct 17, 2004 10:19 pm Posts: 10906
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews/weekend
I say around 70-80m(including previews).
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Sun Jul 04, 2021 3:50 pm |
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lilmac
Veteran
Joined: Wed May 25, 2005 12:07 am Posts: 3127
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews/weekend
$75M OW
_________________ I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.
I was blind, but now I see.
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Sun Jul 04, 2021 6:43 pm |
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bl1222
Veteran
Joined: Sun Sep 18, 2005 8:36 pm Posts: 3900
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews/weekend
$14M Thursday $89M OW
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Sun Jul 04, 2021 6:52 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36915
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews/weekend
$20m previews $95m OW
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Sun Jul 04, 2021 8:11 pm |
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rftapeout
Full Fledged Member
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 4:20 pm Posts: 92
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews/weekend
I will stick with my $10 million Thursday previews prediction. The opening weekend should be $87 million, which is more than the $85 million that Doctor Strange had for its opening weekend.
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Tue Jul 06, 2021 2:47 am |
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Rev
Romosexual!
Joined: Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:06 am Posts: 32083 Location: the last free city
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews/weekend
$25 preview $100m OW $250m Dom $650m WW
_________________ Is it 2024 yet?
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Tue Jul 06, 2021 11:01 am |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22646 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews/weekend
$90-$100m OW.
It is Marvel, even if is lesser tier.
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Wed Jul 07, 2021 1:12 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23695 Location: Classified
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews/weekend
Final prediction - $90.01M
Much higher than I was at a few weeks ago, but I still don't think the market is ready for a nine digit opening.
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Wed Jul 07, 2021 12:59 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 37886
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Re: Predict Black Widow Thursday previews/weekend
It would have opened over 150 pre covid so you'd think it could get at least 90-100
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Wed Jul 07, 2021 1:51 pm |
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