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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20370 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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December 17-19 Predictions
Spider Man No Way Home 249m Nightmare Alley 5m (think this won't be super wide, Movie Taverns are not even getting it) Encanto- -20% West Side Story -33%
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Wed Dec 15, 2021 6:34 pm |
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MadGez
Dont Mess with the Gez
Joined: Sun Oct 24, 2004 9:54 am Posts: 22692 Location: Melbourne Australia
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Re: December 17-19 Predictions
Spider Man No Way Home 198m Nightmare Alley 5m
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Wed Dec 15, 2021 9:44 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18898 Location: San Diego
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Re: December 17-19 Predictions
No Way Home - 234 Nightmare Alley - 4.7
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Wed Dec 15, 2021 11:15 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: December 17-19 Predictions
I thought you were going with $236m pe?
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Thu Dec 16, 2021 12:06 am |
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Steve
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:09 pm Posts: 1807
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Re: December 17-19 Predictions
I’d be amazed to see Spider-man open above $200m. I think in pandemic times that’d be phenomenal.
So, I might be “low-balling” it, but I’ll say $157m
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Thu Dec 16, 2021 1:47 am |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18898 Location: San Diego
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Re: December 17-19 Predictions
The insiders at BOT say Spider-Man has already sold $100m+ in presales. Seems like a matter of how much more than $200m can it do.
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Thu Dec 16, 2021 2:14 am |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: December 17-19 Predictions
Yeah this is going past $200m with ease.
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Thu Dec 16, 2021 2:52 am |
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zwackerm
Hold the door!
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2014 10:26 pm Posts: 20370 Location: Where they shot Knock at the Cabin
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Re: December 17-19 Predictions
So excited to just see the theater packed tonight. Will really feel like the movies are back
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Thu Dec 16, 2021 2:32 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6179
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Re: December 17-19 Predictions
I will say 222m for now. Looking at showcounts at AMC, it has more shows for previews than fri/sat for now. I think nothing except spidey is playing once preview starts today. But tomorrow some screens will be with holdovers even though almost all of them will lose most of their screens.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Thu Dec 16, 2021 3:57 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38111
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Re: December 17-19 Predictions
Could eat these words but I'm actually predicting a What Went Wrong thread followed by good legs and still a great total. The 2nd one took 6 days to get to 185 in summer, 200 mil OW in December during pandemic would be a really big jump.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Thu Dec 16, 2021 4:14 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6179
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Re: December 17-19 Predictions
Cannot compare to FFH. That had ok presales. This is comparing to endgame in most markets. just look at OS openings. its crushing FFH in most markets and setting new OD record in Mexico(ahead of Endgame if I am not wrong).
It has crazy amount of shows tonight. Thinking previews in 45-50m range for now. As of yesterday night AMC alone had sold > 10m in presales. Probably will finish around 12m or so and will be around 25% of overall BO.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Thu Dec 16, 2021 5:55 pm |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38111
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Re: December 17-19 Predictions
Keyser Söze wrote: Cannot compare to FFH. That had ok presales. This is comparing to endgame in most markets. just look at OS openings. its crushing FFH in most markets and setting new OD record in Mexico(ahead of Endgame if I am not wrong).
I get it I just think if it opens to 180mil that's still like twice as good as FFH would've done if it was released in December 2019, and in a pandemic.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:28 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: December 17-19 Predictions
^ Then again if it crosses $200m its because of the additional hype and inclusion of multiverse which the audience really wanted to see from MCU at this point.
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Thu Dec 16, 2021 9:34 pm |
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Steve
Indiana Jones IV
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 12:09 pm Posts: 1807
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Re: December 17-19 Predictions
I’m lowering my prediction to $114m, same as original Spider-man. jk I just don’t wanna buy into presale hype and be disappointed with a great opening, aa Shack is suggesting could happen. If it gets a 3 OW ever, right now, that’d be absolutely insane.
_________________ how am I not myself?
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Thu Dec 16, 2021 10:33 pm |
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Jack Sparrow
KJ's Leading Idiot
Joined: Thu Dec 31, 2009 8:15 pm Posts: 36923
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Re: December 17-19 Predictions
Based on what? I mean the presales for the weekend are already around $100m mark so do you think it will have no walk-in? The lowest I see this doing is $175m and that is if it crashes after OD.
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Thu Dec 16, 2021 11:01 pm |
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Keyser Söze
Quality is a great business plan
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:21 pm Posts: 6179
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Re: December 17-19 Predictions
As i posted it other thread. Looking around 52m previews. That should ensure 230m+ OW I think . Spillover will be super strong and crazy strong reviews should help.
_________________ The world is all about mind and matter, I don't mind and U don't matter
I used to be shawman.
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Thu Dec 16, 2021 11:18 pm |
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publicenemy#1
Extraordinary
Joined: Tue Oct 12, 2004 12:25 am Posts: 18898 Location: San Diego
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Re: December 17-19 Predictions
The WoM on this is gonna be crazy.
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Fri Dec 17, 2021 2:12 am |
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Shack
Devil's Advocate
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2005 2:30 am Posts: 38111
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Re: December 17-19 Predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote: ^ Then again if it crosses $200m its because of the additional hype and inclusion of multiverse which the audience really wanted to see from MCU at this point. That's how it gets to 180-190 which would be an extraordinary opening for a December movie in a pandemic, arguably would be top 5 most impressive opening all time with Endgame, Infinity War, The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi. Actually opening to 220-230 would make it more impressive than IW and maybe TFA opening weekends to me when considering everything. I mean IW might have only been around 220 or 230 or something if it came out in December and that's before considering the pandemic. If you said the pandemic was -20% to throw a number out it would mean anything in 200-210 range is as impressive as Infinity War and Force Awakens and 180 puts you around Last Jedi level. I have a hard time believing this has not just equal but PLUS Infinity War anticipation which they were building to for 10 years and had everyone in it, however seems like I could be proven wrong. Having roughly Last Jedi level opening, the sequel to the biggest movie of all time would still be EXTREMELY good.
_________________Shack’s top 50 tv shows - viewtopic.php?f=8&t=90227
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Fri Dec 17, 2021 3:51 am |
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Flava'd vs The World
The Kramer
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2004 11:36 am Posts: 23836 Location: Classified
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Re: December 17-19 Predictions
No Way Home belongs in the same conversation with those films. The numbers over the next two weeks are gonna be nuts. $700M+ is gonna happen.
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Fri Dec 17, 2021 4:25 am |
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