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Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=88061		 Page 2 of 3
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat Jul 31, 2021 8:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
zwackerm wrote:
Jack Sparrow wrote:
I wasn't talking about MCU movies here. Dinner the pandemic most movie have dropped harder over second weekend.


I would consider a sub 60% drop like Kong v Godzilla a win here


It's September. I don't think it will hold that well.
Author:  zwackerm [ Sat Jul 31, 2021 9:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
Jack Sparrow wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
Jack Sparrow wrote:
I wasn't talking about MCU movies here. Dinner the pandemic most movie have dropped harder over second weekend.


I would consider a sub 60% drop like Kong v Godzilla a win here


It's September. I don't think it will hold that well.


Is September worse than March for drops?
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Sat Jul 31, 2021 9:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
Indeed it is.
Author:  Thegun [ Sat Jul 31, 2021 10:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
The weekend after Labor Day is usually in the top 3 worse of the year, if not the worst. That’s why it’s usually horror movies. I’m almost tempted to say Candyman has a decent shot of beating it if things don’t turn around soon. Shang Chi might get a weekend and then we could be shutdown again.
Author:  rftapeout [ Mon Aug 02, 2021 1:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
Crazy Rich Asians was a big hit but My Big Fat Greek Wedding grossed more domestically and world wide. So I wouldn't go overboard in my predictions. The number of views on Youtube for The Eternals trailer is 23.2 million while the Shang Chi trailer is 20.8 million. So The Eternals will have a bigger 3 day opening than Shang Chi's first 3 days. I think Shang Chi's first 3 days could gross $82 million but the delta variant of Covid isn't expected to peak until September. Covid will scare off the casual fans so Shang Chi won't match Doctor Strange's 2.74 box office multiple. Shang Chi will end up with $205 million domestically.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Mon Aug 02, 2021 10:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
Being the first $200m grosser in almost 2 years will be a great feet for Shang.

Also in the new trailer/spot they "had" to connect it to old MCU somehow and bringing Iron Man's origin is such a farce move.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Tue Aug 03, 2021 11:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
With no premiere access this should be the next film to beat Bad Boys 4 Life's gross... I think it'll do it.
Author:  zwackerm [ Tue Aug 17, 2021 10:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
What's the bar for success for this? I think in normal times this does 70-80m on par with Ant-Man 2 and Dr. Strange. With COVid I think 50-60m should be enough to keep it afloat.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
Bar is definitely lower but the ceiling is highest, I can see it opening above BW.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Tue Aug 17, 2021 12:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
Below 45m would be concerning. Above 50 is fine. 60m+ would be good. Close or above Black Widow would be great. Hoping for 70m+ but we'll see how the next couple weeks go.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Mon Aug 23, 2021 2:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
Opens with 93% on RT and 70 on meta. So about the marvel average. Hope it doesn't go down too much.
Author:  zwackerm [ Mon Aug 23, 2021 4:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
Everything says it's way better than Black Widow so hopefull it does well.
Author:  Rev [ Mon Aug 23, 2021 4:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
I'm predicting this beats BW's 80m pandemic OW record :D
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Mon Aug 23, 2021 7:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Opens with 93% on RT and 70 on meta. So about the marvel average. Hope it doesn't go down too much.


93% is their average opening? Since when? Their initial movies all opened with high-80's score.
Author:  zwackerm [ Mon Aug 23, 2021 10:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
I'm feeling 55-60m still, this is still pretty niche for Marvel IMO
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Mon Aug 23, 2021 11:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
^ That would be terrible for this flopfest.
Author:  Thegun [ Tue Aug 24, 2021 4:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
Black Widow did about 67% of its opening and a more optimistic time frame. Going with the 70-90 million these type of Marvel films open to adjusted, I’d say 57 million would be very good for this, but anywhere between 47-60 million would be comparable to non covid Marvel films. Labor Day hopefully helps it more though.
Author:  Steve [ Tue Aug 24, 2021 8:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
I think I’m probably in the minority but IMO anything over $40m opening weekend for this is a win.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Tue Aug 24, 2021 8:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
^ Apparantely not ;)
Author:  Thegun [ Tue Aug 24, 2021 9:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
Well it’s not getting D+ simultaneously. Basically BW OW was 113 million and Jungle Cruise 57 million. I think it would be safe to say Shang Chi would have made 20-25 of its OW in Disney Plus. So it’s OW should be better just based on that. So let’s say it would have made 30-40 in simultaneously 55-65 doesn’t seem unreasonable.
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:21 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
I would say 65-70m over 4 days and around 160-170m finish domestic. Its OS gross depends on how much Asia BO recovers.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Sun Aug 29, 2021 4:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
Starting to finally feel some big hype for this. I’m bumping my prediction to $62M 3 day. A new Marvel character is exactly what we all need right now.
Author:  Steve [ Sun Aug 29, 2021 6:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Starting to finally feel some big hype for this. I’m bumping my prediction to $62M 3 day. A new Marvel character is exactly what we all need right now.

I’m also feeling more optimistic/hopeful about this movie after seeing the trailer in front of Reminiscence. Hope this is good and does well.
Author:  lilmac [ Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
You guys are seeing a $60M+ opening weekend? I was thinking more like $40M-$45M. Maybe we need to bring back the Derby. :)
Author:  Keyser Söze [ Mon Aug 30, 2021 8:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Predictions
I also think its amping up big time. I am bumping my predictions to 8.5m previews and 85m over labor day weekend.
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