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 Friday Estimates 
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Extraordinary
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Post Friday Estimates
1 N Black Widow Walt Disney $39,500,000 4,160 $9,495 $39,500,000 1
2 (1) F9: The Fast Saga Universal $3,370,000 +53% -60% 3,649 $924 $133,815,725 15
3 (2) The Boss Baby: Family Bus… Universal $2,810,000 +43% -64% 3,688 $762 $28,856,510 8
4 (3) The Forever Purge Universal $2,270,000 +58% -61% 3,058 $742 $23,004,915 8

https://www.the-numbers.com/daily-box-office-chart

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Sat Jul 10, 2021 11:30 am
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Friday Estimates
Good # although wish it hit 40m. Will likely have an opening in the 80s.


Sat Jul 10, 2021 11:33 am
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Friday Estimates
From Deadline:

Quote:

Black Widow (Dis) 4,160 theaters/Fri $39.5M/3-day $88.4M/Wk 1
F9 (Uni) 3,649 theaters (-554), Fri $3.37M (-60% from prev Friday)/3-day $10.4M (-55%)/Total: $140.9M/ Wk 3
Boss Baby: Family Business (Uni) 3,688 theaters (+44), Fri $2.8M (-64%)3-day $8.7M (-46%)/total $34.7M/Wk 2
Forever Purge (Uni) 3,058 theaters (+7), Fri $2.27M (-61%)3-day $6.8M (-46%)/4-day and total $27.5M/Wk 1
A Quiet Place Part II (Par) 2,359 (-467) Fri $970K (-35%)/3-day: $3.1M (-24%)/Total: $150.8M/Wk 7"


Sub-50% would actually pretty damn solid for Purge? The series really will go on forever. And with Quiet Place still holding fantastic yeah, I'm starting to think Old does really well.


Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:09 pm
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The Kramer
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Post Re: Friday Estimates
Good enough! Disney will fudge the number like Uni did for F9 and $90M will happen.


Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:12 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Friday Estimates
I'm kinda nervous Disney is gonna do Premiere Access for Shang-Chi if Black Widow did well... if 1 million US households did premiere access then that's another $30m directly to Disney. I guess it'll depend if Disney is ok with depleting box office, guess we'll see. I imagine without some more bullshit with covid and no PA Shang-Chi opens at the same level of Black Widow but would be nice if we get to $100m+.


Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:21 pm
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The Kramer
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Post Re: Friday Estimates
Well they have What If? airing through August and September, so I think it'd be smarter to release it in theaters for 3-4 weeks, then put Shang Chi on D+ for free to boost subs.

Shang Chi is a tough sell though, and I dunno if it makes it to $100M.

Eternals will be the first unless something like No Time To Die, Venom, Halloween or Dune massively overperform. None of them seem likely though, and the last 3 should be happy with half of a hundred.


Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:29 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Friday Estimates
So that's a $26m true Friday. It's easily the biggest numbers post pandemic though it would have been amazing if it did more on Friday than GvK.


Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:32 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Friday Estimates
publicenemy#1 wrote:
I'm kinda nervous Disney is gonna do Premiere Access for Shang-Chi if Black Widow did well... if 1 million US households did premiere access then that's another $30m directly to Disney. I guess it'll depend if Disney is ok with depleting box office, guess we'll see. I imagine without some more bullshit with covid and no PA Shang-Chi opens at the same level of Black Widow but would be nice if we get to $100m+.


That's an origins movie so it won't open as big, it wouldn't have the luxury of being the first MCU movie post pandemic and it would need that extra publicity of BO to become WoM hit once it lands on D+. I don't see it releasing simultaneously.


Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:35 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Friday Estimates
publicenemy#1 wrote:
From Deadline:

Quote:

Black Widow (Dis) 4,160 theaters/Fri $39.5M/3-day $88.4M/Wk 1
F9 (Uni) 3,649 theaters (-554), Fri $3.37M (-60% from prev Friday)/3-day $10.4M (-55%)/Total: $140.9M/ Wk 3
Boss Baby: Family Business (Uni) 3,688 theaters (+44), Fri $2.8M (-64%)3-day $8.7M (-46%)/total $34.7M/Wk 2
Forever Purge (Uni) 3,058 theaters (+7), Fri $2.27M (-61%)3-day $6.8M (-46%)/4-day and total $27.5M/Wk 1
A Quiet Place Part II (Par) 2,359 (-467) Fri $970K (-35%)/3-day: $3.1M (-24%)/Total: $150.8M/Wk 7"


Sub-50% would actually pretty damn solid for Purge? The series really will go on forever. And with Quiet Place still holding fantastic yeah, I'm starting to think Old does really well.


Good point on Purge but it looks like F9 will also hold really well.


Sat Jul 10, 2021 12:35 pm
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Post Re: Friday Estimates
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Good enough! Disney will fudge the number like Uni did for F9 and $90M will happen.


I doubt that will happen. Saturday looks like dropping from friday. I think now 25m sat and 20m friday for 84.5m weekend. Disney could round off for 85m but they are typically conservative and I am expecting 83-84m OW tomorrow.

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Sat Jul 10, 2021 2:43 pm
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Friday Estimates
Saturday decrease from true Friday is a bummer but honestly anything above 80m is good.


Sat Jul 10, 2021 4:04 pm
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The Kramer
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Post Re: Friday Estimates
Marvel usually have strong Saturdays don’t they? $12.5/27/30/21.5 can’t be done?


Sat Jul 10, 2021 4:07 pm
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Friday Estimates
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
Marvel usually have strong Saturdays don’t they? $12.5/27/30/21.5 can’t be done?


Think Keyser is referring to Saturday tracking numbers and it looks like BW isn't increasing.


Sat Jul 10, 2021 7:55 pm
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Post Re: Friday Estimates
I could be wrong as saturday tends to have more spread out box office but at AMC its just 8% ahead of Fast 9 and so looking at around 24m saturday. It just fizzled out after strong morning/afternoon. If sunday hold is not great then there is a chance for this to miss 80m. I strongly feel Premium Access playing a big part in usual family group that tend to watch their movies over the weekend.

Edit: Probably wont miss 80m even with 24m saturday and 18m sunday for 81.5m OW. Its after all in the middle of the summer.

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Sun Jul 11, 2021 12:42 am
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Extraordinary
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Post Re: Friday Estimates
Lol reading the meltdowns on BOT eek

I think a lot of people probably did PA or pirated the movie tbh. 80m is honestly fine all things considered but next to F7 it just feels weird that this "only" does 10m more. But if it was pure theatrical release it would've probably done 100m. Idk weird times. Let's see how it holds. I expect decent legs tbh because of Raya and Cruella's legs but who knows.


Sun Jul 11, 2021 12:59 am
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KJ's Leading Idiot

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Post Re: Friday Estimates
Indeed it feels weird but then again Fast 9 was not available on streaming and that makes a huge difference. It's difficult to judge a movies BO based on these ticket admissions alone and I doubt we will ever get accurate streaming numbers.


Sun Jul 11, 2021 1:02 am
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Post Re: Friday Estimates
With my independent theater only charging $6 a ticket, I can't envision me ever using PA. I know Disney had to come up with a number that works for them, though. Obviously a better deal for families watching films at home.

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