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Dune Predictions
https://worldofkj.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=87231		 Page 1 of 3
Author:  zwackerm [ Thu Sep 10, 2020 8:36 am ]
Post subject:  Dune Predictions
This looks like a bomb to me, pandemic or no pandemic. I could see it doing well if it gets Oscar buzz and holds well throughout Oscar season, but I don’t see it doing more than 10-15m opening with a pandemic and 25-30m if they push it to 2021 and theaters are allowed full capacity.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:11 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
It might be great book but that trailer had too much without a proper hook for general audience.
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Thu Sep 10, 2020 12:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
This got a lot of buzz yesterday. Was trending all day on twitter and views seem decent. And it looks good.

If this opens at an ok time I could see it doing ok. Can't even imagine what a "breakout" looks like now, seems like we're not gonna get any sense of normal box office numbers for awhile.
Author:  Barrabás [ Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
I am a massive fan of the books and I so want this to be a huge new franchise....but I agree that the trailer seems too confusing for general audiences. That was the problem with Blade Runner 2049 as well, I'm starting to think Dennis is so set on an "art over commerce" mentality that he's not even willing to make the film look more appealing to non-fans in the trailer. Hollywood never learns so I'm not surprised they're making the same mistake again.

Even the weird music choice was a nod to another failed adaptation....which for the geeks and super fans is cute, but does absolutely nothing for general audiences. Part of the problem is also what happened to John Carter; Dune has been so influential that at this point a lot of the visual elements don't feel fresh. The worms are cool and something kind of new for audiences, but that last shot being so dark also took away some of the wow factor.

The pandemic will obviously still be going on in December so if it does come out then and flops, maybe we'll get Part 2 anyway since the studio will chalk up an underperformance to COVID and not the franchise's potential? It's a mess that they only filmed half the first book and Part 2 will depend on how this one does. All the good stuff happens in the second half....

If there is any hope I think it rests with Timothee. He is one of the few young actors who has real movie star potential and he looks great in it, his screen presence alone in that trailer immediately elevates it over other failed similar films.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
publicenemy#1 wrote:
This got a lot of buzz yesterday. Was trending all day on twitter and views seem decent. And it looks good.

If this opens at an ok time I could see it doing ok. Can't even imagine what a "breakout" looks like now, seems like we're not gonna get any sense of normal box office numbers for awhile.


Mostly fans of books and Denis. It's really easy to get buzz on the internet these days and there is no way to gauge if its positive or negative buzz.
Author:  Dil [ Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:54 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
I am massively excited for this and thought the trailer looked great, but so far it really does feel like another Blade Runner 2049. That trailer is going to be confusing as fuck for general audiences who aren't already familiar with the property. Also, COVID just presents a whole other problem entirely and even if it does get pushed back to next year I doubt things will be that much better to where it goes any higher than a $25-$30M opening and $70-$80M total which is still pretty disastrous for a movie that cost $200M+ not including marketing. Maybe the next trailer could change that though.
Author:  lilmac [ Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
I can see 10 million people worldwide plunking down $29.99 USD equivalent to stream Dune. That’s $300mil that you don’t have to share with theaters. Trolls earned $100m in 3 weeks. I’m surprised we’ve seen mostly delays and not shifts to PVOD (Mulan notwithstanding).
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Thu Sep 24, 2020 9:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
If $30m becomes the norm for PVOD I can see it becoming unpopular and give diminishing results with each entry.
Author:  Barrabás [ Thu Sep 24, 2020 4:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
Why plonk down $30 when you could literally google "Watch Dune free" a few days later and find a billion streaming sites hosted in Bangladesh or wherever that show it for free?
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Thu Sep 24, 2020 4:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
Yeah straight to PVOD for anything that cost over $150m ain't happening anytime soon unless it's a family/animated flick.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Thu Sep 24, 2020 6:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
The “official” trailer has more views than The Batman’s “official” trailer on youtube.

I think Universal has figured it out with Croods. Release in theaters for a few weeks then charge for premium on demand too.
Author:  Barrabás [ Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
Flava'd vs The World wrote:
The “official” trailer has more views than The Batman’s “official” trailer on youtube.

I think Universal has figured it out with Croods. Release in theaters for a few weeks then charge for premium on demand too.

Yeah, cause this is the third incarnation of Batman in theatres in the last 8 years. The character is tired at this point.

Dune is fresh. But they need a killer second trailer that really sells the story and most importantly Timothee as Paul.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
Batman has a lot of leaked trailers which is why the official trailer has lesser views. I do agree though Dune needs a good second trailer if it wants to become mainstream. Right now it looks like a big budget misfire, I can compare it to John Carter though I am sure the budget isn't as big.
Author:  mark66 [ Mon Oct 05, 2020 3:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
October 1st 2021

Expected, this is not the time to start a franchise...
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Mon Oct 05, 2020 4:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
So I'm guessing Batman is moving maybe to Black Adam's December slot, makes sense.
Author:  Mau [ Mon Oct 05, 2020 4:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
Damn, so now only two movies that matter are on the schedule? Wonder Woman and Soul, I wonder how long they will stand.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Mon Oct 05, 2020 6:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
Lame. I would have gone out for Dune and it had a much better chance of getting a BP nom this year. Understandable though.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Mon Oct 05, 2020 7:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
From the trailers it really didn't look like something Academy would embrace. It really looks more like Blade Runner 2049 and John Carter mix so other than technical nods I don't see it getting any major award nods.
Author:  Flava'd vs The World [ Mon Oct 05, 2020 7:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
I think Blade Runner would have been nominated with a guaranteed ten spots and 50% fewer movies to compete against.
Author:  Jack Sparrow [ Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
I think with the extended timeline we will get a lot more Oscar bait movies before the deadline just not now in December. Most of those movies don't make enough theatrically anyways.
Author:  Barrabás [ Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
Did they have to delay it an entire year though??? What was wrong with next summer? What a mess

This needed as much hype as possible to do well. Now the only people who will care are the hardcore fans of the book. I hope WB has some tax rebate shenanigans up their sleeve so they can write this off and still make sequels. We at least need part 2 of the book
Author:  Excel [ Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
New trailer looks :whaa: :whaa: :whaa: :whaa: :whaa: :whaa:
Author:  zwackerm [ Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
I definitely think this will do well, I thought it looked niche initially but the interest seems to be there.

I’m thinking about 50m OW, 150m total. If it gets Oscar buzz I can see it push 200m
Author:  publicenemy#1 [ Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
Yeah this looks great. I don't think it's gonna do great though we'll see. As of now I'm thinking an opening in the 30s maybe.
Author:  BJ [ Thu Jul 22, 2021 2:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Dune Predictions
Looks awesome, please make all the money.
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