Probably not and Guardians do to look a 350m at this point. There are definite signs of huge Marvel fatigue. Its presales are sub 70% Ant 3 at this point and pace is horrible. This movie is finishing well below 1st movie and missing 300m at this point.

Guardians doing sub-300m domestic would be pretty awful. Lol right after WB gave all of DC to Gunn.

No chance in hell that's happening

175m/400m

I feel like if reviews are positive it will see a huge surge close to release a La The Batman which also had poor presales a month out.

If reviews are bad, then I could see it do poorly. But sub AntMan OW I don’t see how that’s possible.

Nope. Batman final week surge was just meh. Movies that had late surge recently include Jurassic World Dominion, Minions 2 and Mario last week. None of those movies fit MCU sequel profile. Even Top Gun Maverick final surge was just ok. Real sign of its insane run started with crazy sunday hold and then legendary leggy run.

It’s tracking at $130m OW right now with 3 weeks to go. Post Mario the ficus will shift to it so $150m OW looks likely.

That tracking is expecting a surge and predicting it. Current presales are around 70-75% of Ant-man 3 !!! With no catalyst it will be only in the final week surge that can reverse this. but there is a limit as to how much things can change that late. We will know in 3 weeks.

Review embargo drops a whole week early on the 28th. Hopefully that’s a good thing

I blame the trailers for GOTG3's mediocre pre-sales...

Can anyone tell me what GOTG3's about just with the infos you get from the previews?

People want to know that there's a story in a movie...

They need to better emphasise that this is the end of the road, the final GotG (at least in this configuration). Don’t think it has been. Made clear. Also more Adam Warlock would help.

Seems that the trailers pretty clearly show the villain experiments on animals and has a past with rocket raccoon

Interesting, I feel like the "this is the final Guardians movie" angle has been the angle of the marketing, especially in that first trailer with the melancholy song choice, Rocket's "I'm done running" and "we'll fly away together one last time" line, and the tagline "it's time to face the music." The second trailer toned this down, but it still has that second Rocket line and tagline. In terms of selling the plot, the second one had a similar "just sell the hijinks and group dynamic" move, but the first movie had so much goodwill at the time that they could get away with it (plus, Baby Groot), whereas this one is coming off a six year break between installments and small roles in several other Marvel movies, so I don't think there's as much of that here. Combine all that with Marvel being on a cold streak, and the increasingly likely drop-off starts to make more sense.

I don't think the Christmas special did them any favors which was watched by fans just 5 months ago. I got my GOTG fix in a short holiday special. Even if it was well received doesn't push demand at all upward to see #3.

The pandemic + streaming approach from Disney+ hit Pixar and Marvel's brand and anticipation for films hard. The 2019 - 2023 transition is pretty staggering, especially if this does under $300M.

I wonder what Guardians could have made if it was the first movie after Endgame as originally intended. Having Thor would have definitely helped with the marketing.

Sub 300. Ok opening weekend and then drops hard.

That's not a story, that's just background information...

At least Disney is reacting to bad presales. They are now doing a fan screening on 4/28.


https://twitter.com/Guardians/status/16 ... 3981451264

i got 2 free passes at a nearby AMC. Grab it fast.

Marvel is so desperate they have put in early reactions to the tv ads now.

https://twitter.com/MultiverseMurph/status/1649919227933999104

This opening to less than Ant Man would be shocking. I think if that happens then I bet Quantumania was pretty much one of the final nails in the idgaf opinion that may be building for MCU

If that happened, that would be enough to put the entire continued MCU in jeopardy. Would probably delay any films not already in production

I watched the second trailer before posting. Have now watched the first again and you are correct. I guess this does indicate the trailers have just not been effective.

OW: 115m
Domestic: 275m
Overseas: 350m
Total: 625m WW

Key thing for Guardians is reactions/reviews we will get after its premier this thursday. Reviews will be out on Friday. It has to be uber strong for it to make a final push. That said Thor's awful reviews did not stop it from having a strong finish to its presales. But there is strange apathy to this movie. I guess audience is jaded with SH movies after seeing so many of them.