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Expend4bles predictions - 22 Sep
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Author:  Algren [ Mon Sep 08, 2014 7:54 am ]
Post subject:  Expend4bles predictions - 22 Sep
No surprise here but Jackie Chan is interested in The Expendables 4.

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/jacki ... 201284471/
Author:  Dr. Lecter [ Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
Hmm, I am honestly not sure it will happen. I mean, yes, the third will be financially successful in the end, but not THAT successful for there to be a rush for another sequel.

IF it does happen and let's say it is about the same quality as the third and the marketing is about the same and they don't add The Rock or Liam Neeson...then probably a $35 million total.
Author:  Algren [ Mon Sep 08, 2014 9:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
They should go to Kickstarter for the fourth. THAT way, they'll truly see how much a fourth one is needed. Even if they do not get all of the budget from KS, at least try and get some, if only to gauge its popularity....because everything from TE3 will be affected by the leak and PG-13 rating.

But a fourth could be swell if they did the right things and stopped trying to emulate The Dirty Dozen.
Author:  lesterg [ Mon Sep 08, 2014 2:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
As I've said before: there's no reason this can't continue as a DTV franchise, but I can't imagine Lionsgate spending the money to release another installment that's going to top out at like 20-something domestic.
Author:  Thegun [ Mon Sep 08, 2014 4:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
I can see the next increasing slightly domestically, and big overseas,. And if they get at least one big name, and an international star, they'll be in great business. I don't care what any of you say 25+million illegal downloads is a big deal. Scale the budget back a little, and raise the stakes story wise, they're back in business.

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Author:  zwackerm [ Mon Sep 08, 2014 4:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
Lol it would not increase. 20 million tops.
Author:  Algren [ Mon Sep 08, 2014 6:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
lesterg wrote:
As I've said before: there's no reason this can't continue as a DTV franchise, but I can't imagine Lionsgate spending the money to release another installment that's going to top out at like 20-something domestic.
Lionsgate made a profit releasing The Expendables 3. They'd definitely buy a fourth too. And a fourth could be made. Movies are not made based on their domestic appeal anymore.
Author:  zwackerm [ Mon Sep 08, 2014 10:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
It could be a profitable venture if they lowered the budget and didn't bother with a theatrical release in the U.S. But I doubt the third, while it won't be a big flop, has made enough profit for a 4th to be greenlit.
Author:  Algren [ Tue Sep 09, 2014 12:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
zwackerm wrote:
It could be a profitable venture if they lowered the budget and didn't bother with a theatrical release in the U.S. But I doubt the third, while it won't be a big flop, has made enough profit for a 4th to be greenlit.

The distribution rights were sold long before the leak. It made a definite profit. Millenium and Nu Image will make another one as long as they can quantify what it may have made without the leak. DVD sales are important too. But the fact that it will make $200m worldwide even with the leak, that will tell them that a fourth is in demand. Heck, even the download number tells them that a fourth is in demand. 22m downloads before August 15th is just crazy.
Author:  zwackerm [ Tue Sep 09, 2014 7:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
But they probably would rather find a franchise that will make them hundreds of millions in profit than 50 million or less.
Author:  Thegun [ Tue Sep 09, 2014 8:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
If it wasn't for the leak the third would make a 200-300 million profit like the other two. Instead they have to settle for 100 million this time out. Not bad at all, all things considered. 4th film will undoubtedly increase in both the states and overseas, and will make a killing on the home market.
Author:  lesterg [ Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
This series has seen % drops with each sequel. Even with international grosses - why would Lionsgate spend over 100 million to make and promote a film that's going to gross 20-30M domestically?

And why would any big, audience-drawing star sign on to the third sequel in a collapsing franchise that's perceived as a failure stateside...for little to no money?
Author:  Algren [ Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
lesterg wrote:
This series has seen % drops with each sequel. Even with international grosses - why would Lionsgate spend over 100 million to make and promote a film that's going to gross 20-30M domestically?

Lionsgate doesn't spend over $100m though. It spends around $25m max. and it has the US and UK markets to get their money back (including DVD sales and rights). It will easily make money.

Oh, and TE2 increased its international gross over TE1, so you really don't know what the fuck you are talking about.
Author:  Algren [ Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
lesterg wrote:
And why would any big, audience-drawing star sign on to the third sequel in a collapsing franchise that's perceived as a failure stateside...for little to no money?
Who says it needs a big star?? This franchise was built on has-beens, and it has made close to $1 billion. There are tons of has-beens left that would be happy to partake in the fun fourth.
Author:  lesterg [ Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
Algren wrote:
lesterg wrote:
This series has seen % drops with each sequel. Even with international grosses - why would Lionsgate spend over 100 million to make and promote a film that's going to gross 20-30M domestically?

Lionsgate doesn't spend over $100m though. It spends around $25m max. and it has the US and UK markets to get their money back (including DVD sales and rights). It will easily make money.

Oh, and TE2 increased its international gross over TE1, so you really don't know what the fuck you are talking about.


I'm talking domestically in terms of drops. Also where are you getting that 25M figure?

How many films have received a theatrical sequel when they earned less than 50% of their predecessor in recent history? I'm sure there are a handful but that's got to be a short, short list.
Author:  lesterg [ Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:32 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
Algren wrote:
lesterg wrote:
And why would any big, audience-drawing star sign on to the third sequel in a collapsing franchise that's perceived as a failure stateside...for little to no money?
Who says it needs a big star?? This franchise was built on has-beens, and it has made close to $1 billion. There are tons of has-beens left that would be happy to partake in the fun fourth.


Uh, sure. I don't think that is in dispute. Hence why this series would probably be better suited for DTV going forward.
Author:  Algren [ Tue Sep 09, 2014 9:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
lesterg wrote:
Algren wrote:
lesterg wrote:
This series has seen % drops with each sequel. Even with international grosses - why would Lionsgate spend over 100 million to make and promote a film that's going to gross 20-30M domestically?

Lionsgate doesn't spend over $100m though. It spends around $25m max. and it has the US and UK markets to get their money back (including DVD sales and rights). It will easily make money.

Oh, and TE2 increased its international gross over TE1, so you really don't know what the fuck you are talking about.


I'm talking domestically in terms of drops. Also where are you getting that 25M figure?
Lionsgate paid $20m for The Expendables to distribute it to the US, Canada, and the UK. With the domestic drop from TE1 to TE2, they would have paid much less for the third. Add in marketing and it's not going to be much more than $25-$30m tops.

Let me just address something here that I don't think you are considering (based on your previous posts)....Lionsgate did not put up the budget for any of the Expendables movies. They are not the production company. They are merely a distributor.

And you said "even with international grosses" right after you mentioned about drops, so I thought you were talking about intl drops (of which there weren't any until now).

So yeah, to clarify, Lionsgate did not spend $100m on The Expendables 3. Far from it.
Author:  zwackerm [ Tue Sep 09, 2014 10:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
how much do you think the third would have made without the leak? 70 million? this franchise is dead domestically, regardless of whether or not the 4th film is leaked.
Author:  Algren [ Tue Sep 09, 2014 11:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
zwackerm wrote:
how much do you think the third would have made without the leak? 70 million? this franchise is dead domestically, regardless of whether or not the 4th film is leaked.
Without the leak, it would have probably made $50m domestically. But you know what, that's not the only market in the world. I really do not know why everyone seems so determined to push the "domestically it tanked" argument down our throats. GONE are the days when films were green-lit based solely on domestic popularity.
Author:  lesterg [ Tue Sep 09, 2014 12:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
Algren wrote:
lesterg wrote:
Algren wrote:
lesterg wrote:
This series has seen % drops with each sequel. Even with international grosses - why would Lionsgate spend over 100 million to make and promote a film that's going to gross 20-30M domestically?

Lionsgate doesn't spend over $100m though. It spends around $25m max. and it has the US and UK markets to get their money back (including DVD sales and rights). It will easily make money.

Oh, and TE2 increased its international gross over TE1, so you really don't know what the fuck you are talking about.


I'm talking domestically in terms of drops. Also where are you getting that 25M figure?
Lionsgate paid $20m for The Expendables to distribute it to the US, Canada, and the UK. With the domestic drop from TE1 to TE2, they would have paid much less for the third. Add in marketing and it's not going to be much more than $25-$30m tops.

Let me just address something here that I don't think you are considering (based on your previous posts)....Lionsgate did not put up the budget for any of the Expendables movies. They are not the production company. They are merely a distributor.

So yeah, to clarify, Lionsgate did not spend $100m on The Expendables 3. Far from it.


Ok, cool I was not aware of who paid for the production. How much would marketing be on a mid-tier franchise like this?
Author:  lesterg [ Tue Sep 09, 2014 12:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
Algren wrote:
zwackerm wrote:
GONE are the days when films were green-lit based solely on domestic popularity.


But again - domestically: when was the last time a sequel got a follow-up when it grossed half of it's predecessor? I'm sure there are examples but they've got to be few and far between.
Author:  Mau [ Tue Sep 09, 2014 2:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
If they do a fourth one they need The Rock or Liam... if they can get both then that's waaaaaaaay better.

If not... don't even bother making another one.
Author:  zwackerm [ Tue Sep 09, 2014 8:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
Denzel Washington would be great, but he'd never be in it.
Author:  Algren [ Tue Sep 09, 2014 8:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
Mau wrote:
If they do a fourth one they need The Rock or Liam... if they can get both then that's waaaaaaaay better.

If not... don't even bother making another one.

You don't really 'get' this franchise.
Author:  Chippy [ Wed Sep 10, 2014 10:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Expendables 4 - Prediction Thread
Apparently no one else does, either.
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