poor Ben Affleck. It was just the right time for a comeback. Look at J.Lo, shes not sunk Shall We Dance at all, Some people are saying shes quite good in it. But Ben Affleck should have dumped that project on the spot when script problems started

BOM has friday estimates up for Sideways and the Machinist

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

Looks like the Machinist will have a respectable $20k PTA, and Sideways will have a $50k PTA.

Not as good as Huckabees, but still amazing. Fox Searchlight is having a greta year.

*inserts generic holy crap look at The Grudge comment*

Guys, I'm willing to bet that The Grudge increases a bit today. It's PG-13. I don't know of a single PG-13 film to ever drop on Sat. at a time of the year with low weekdays. All the films to do so have an R rating. TCM, Underworld, Kill Bill; all of them. Even Van Helsing increased slightly with a PG-13 rating.

Friday Numbers analysis:

1. The Grudge:

Well, what can I say? It managed an amazing opening day which no one has expected and it has shown us that Asian horror remakes are more in right now than anything else in the horror movies department. It bodes very well for upcoming remakes Dark Water and The Ring 2. Sure, the reviews haven't been great and the WoM doesn't seem amazing, yet the fact that it made on its first day exactly the same amount of money as The Ring did on its first weekend speaks for itself. The Grudge is THE HOROR MOVIE OF THE YEAR in terms of box-office gross and I doubt any movie will challenge this status, not even SAW, due to its rating and a smaller degree release. The Grudge had an amazing marketing campaign behind it, teen stars to attract the young audiences and its overall style reminded everyone of the beloved The Ring which has scared audiences worldwide 2 years ago. However, in contrast to The Ring, the reviews are far from splendid and the first viewers' reactions are far from great. Moreover, I see this movie being rather frontloaded. It will have a worse weekend multiplier than The Forgotten due to a much bigger opening Friday, but it shouldn't be as bad as Alien vs. Predator's multiplier as that movie had a fanbase rushing out to see it as soon as possible after a year-long wait. I think its multiplier will fall somewhere between The Texas Chainsaw Massacre (which actually rose on Saturday) and Resident Evil: Apocalypse. I see it getting $38.5 million by the end of the weekend.

As for the total gross, it will be helped by Halloween, immensly. The movie is actually destined to drop big, but Halloween will prevent it from happening, at least partially. It will be hit by SAW, somewhat, but Halloween leaves enough room for all horror flicks. I see a total gross of around $95-105 million.

2. Shark Tale:

The movie continues its great run, especially considering the bad pre-release buzz and the reviews which are anything, but flattering. It shows that people will go out in masses and see any animated movie as long as it is CGI. Its weekend take should be somewhere around $14.3 million. Another hit for the Dreamworks studios that started out somewhat slow, only to land a huge hit with Shrek, back in 2001. Shark Tale will be severly hit by The Incredibles on November, but until then nothing should really compete with it as it is the only family movie out there right now. I see it leaving the theatres with around $170 million in its bag. Not bad for a movie with such bad reviews!

3. Shall We Dance:

I think this is the biggest (positive) surprise of October so far. A movie starring Lopez and Gere which are not exactly box-office magnets with unimpressive sneaks results and bad reviews opened above everyone's expectations and has an amazing run so far. It is actually surprising that it didn't rise more on Friday despite the theatre expansion by over 600 new locations. However a good weekend multiplier will give it a $9.1 million. It should maintain good legs throughout the next weeks and end up with around $48-50 million.

4. Friday Night Lights:

It follows the tradition of The Rookie, Remember the Titans and Miracle, sports movies that opened very well and had very decent legs. Friday Night Lights had the biggest Friday increase, apart from I Heart Huckabees and will end up with a weekend of around $7.8 milion. The legs should stay pretty much the same for the rest of its run with drops around 35-40% each weekend for a total gross of around $67 million.

5. Team America: World Police:

This is probably October's biggest negative surprise. It is definitly not a bomb, as a puppet movie with no-name voiceover stars cannot have had a big budget, but it is still a sore disappointment. It has gotten great reviews and the topic, bashing Bush, that is, is pretty much in right now, especiialy after Fahrenheit 9/11. Still it failed to attract tons of audiences. However, it seems to have better legs than projected as the movie looks to drop less than 50% this weekend. I see a weekend take of $6.9 million. I see decent legs until the end of its run for a total gross of $37 million. Not horrible, but certainly a disappointment!

6. Ladder 49:

Despite bad reviews this movie garnered great WoM and it is showing in its legs so far. This is good news for John Travolta who hasn't had a hit since Swordfish and was pretty much in need for one. The movie will have yet another drop of under 40% this weekend for a weekend take of $5.4 million. As for its total gross, I project this movie to make around $75 million.

7. Surviving Christmas:

A Christmas-oriented movie in October? That is just plain STUPID. Awful reviews also do not suggest a good run. Not good for Affleck, not good at all. Even his ex, Lopez, is having a hit right now...maybe Affleck will reconsider his idea not to make any action movies in future after this disaster. It will make around $4.1 million over the weekend and leave the theatres very very soon with around $9-10 million.

8. Taxi:

This guy is supposed to direct Fantastic Four? This just makes me sad for the comic book fans. The movie did a little better then the first impression suggested, but it will still remain a flop. This weekend, it should make around $4 million and top out at around $36 million.

9. The Forgotten:

This movie has displayed amazing legs so far, especially for a badly reviewed horror movie. It was obvious that The Grudge would hit it the hardest, but it could still somewhat hold its own. I project it to make around 3.7 million this weekend. Halloween will help it to have a slim drop next weekend, but after that it should disappear fast with a total gross of around $70 million.

10. I heart Huckabees:

A rather disappointing expansion result, but c'mon, this movie is really not for everyone. It is certaibly helped by a great cast and somewhat good reviews, but in the end, this movie won't break out. Overall, it reminds me of Punch-Drunk Love. I see it getting about $3.1 million this weekend and have very decent legs until the end of its run. It is hard to predict its total, but I see it leaving the theatres with around $17-25 million.

Very Good for The Grudge.
I`m happy of SMG! Hehehehehehe.

Great analyst , Dr Lecter I think you are spot on.

great analysis as boyfresh said. I only disagree on The grudge as I think it will top 40m this weekend and 117m total.

Well, even with TCM's multiplier, it won't top it. The WoM on The Grudge seems to be much worse, though...I don't know...it also had a bigger opening day than TCM, therefore a worse multiplier is likely.


But thank you and BOYFRESH!

I dont see Grudge holding up well at all... everysingle person that left my theatre that saw it last night and today minus a few fanboys all said how terrible the movie was, yes yes it was scary but not a movie they would reccomend or see again *shrug* AvP type numbers all the way, even though halloween is next weekend, I dont think it will matter much

I don't think WOM is all that bad. Yeah, some people hated it. But, people are getting really scared of it, and if people hear that it's scary, they'll go. That's the whole reason for the success of The Ring. People spread the word that it was so scary, and eventually, it became huge. Now, The Grudge is hot from weekend one, as we can see. It's definently selling out shows everyone (it even almost sold out my show in the afternoon). EVERYONE in my theater was scared shitless, to put it simply. Will it have great legs? Absolutly not. It's way too frontloaded for that. Will it pass $100 million? I think so. I think it should get a 2.5x multiplier this weekend for a weekend of $37.5 million. I mean, if The Village, which was incredibly well-hated, can get 2.5x, why not The Grudge? As for total, it won't be horrible legs. I can see a drop of about 50% next weekend. It would have dropped a lot more if it wasn't Halloween next weekend, but it is, so I see a respectable 50% drop. After that, I think it'll do okay. I see a total of about $105-110 million, making it one of the major surprises of 2004.

I agree about this weekend. Actually, I even think that it will get around $39 million this weekend and drop less than 50% next weekend, thanks to Halloween. It'll drop to around $20-21 milion...BUT...

The weekend after Halloween it will drop over 55-60%, definitely. It will have to compete with better reviewed and better received SAW all the time and on its 4th weekend also Seed of Chucky will enter the field. I can't see good legs for The Grudge.

Top 40m you mean? It doesn't have the R rating, so Sat will be stronger.

As for WOM, I think it is quite good. Bad from some maybe, but I have heard quite a few say that it's one of the best horrors they have ever seen It has a B at yahoo which is good especially the 'F's it is getting from some. I think a strong majority like it, a few love it, and a vocal minority hates it.

Plus, unlike TCM it has holloween in the second week, so it will have a bit more of an effect on its multiplier.

stupid grudge....no way it deserves that much. saw better make like $25 million next friday then lol

Sup people, this is MakaveliDaDon from the BOM forums, man was i wrong about grudge, but i was right about it not being very good atleast imo, and alot of people at the theaters seemed not to care for it, just laughing at parts and such, people i were with sorta liked it, basically because it was scary, and thats all they were looking for.

Anyways I think it'll get mediocre legs, something like RE 2 i would say.

YAYNESS!!!

The Grudge, one of my most anticiapted movies of the years, is a breakout smash!!

I'm so glad its unreal! yassss!

Go sarah michelle gellars career!

Fantastic.


This is another horror hit for her.... I Know What You Did Last Summer, Scream 2 and now The Grudge!

Grudge done amazing im so glad for it. Hopefully it can get like $40 Million opening now Id be friggin thrilled!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Shark Tale is also holding up nicely

Well my nf7 pred i made in sept for this movie was $33.5/$112
When i tweaked it this week it still looks shapely $28.4/$100

I dont know....i dont think its actually gonna have bad legs. The WOM that ive been exposed to [not necesarilly the actual WOM, which of course varies from place to place] has been that the film is terrifying, i remember one person saying that the opening sequence beats "Psycho" hand down. And that cant be a bad thing. Ive also heard a few people calling it wierd. But Bad? Hmmm, i doubt it. Its going to be more frontloaded even if its not got bad WOM. THe fact that Buffy fans probobly saw it this weekend as well as all the pent up waiting for THE RING means that it aint gonna be a $200m movie. But it still shouldnt do too badly. If people are scared by a film, other people are going to want to see that. Thats what happened with The Exorcist y'all.