...with only one weekend at #1 of the box-office? Since 1980 anyway.


I just checked back and noticed that ever since 1980 the top-grosser of each year always spent at least two weekends at the top of the box-office. Forrest Gump was actually the last film not to do so in a row (but it did recapture the top spot in its third weekend). Last year, The Dark Knight had four weeks at the top. Spider-Man 3 managed two and Dead Man's Chest had three.


Will Transformers 2 really become the first top-grosser of a year with only one weekend at the top?

Well, considering it opens on a Wednesday, its first weekend won't be that huge. I really don't see it making more than $100 million over the 3-day frame. Provided it does make $100 milion during its first 3-day weekend - it'll drop at least 45% in its second weekend - 50+% is more likely, though.

Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs opens in its second frame and I REALLY doubt it'll open to any less than $60 million over the 3-day weekend. Transformers 2, on the other hand, is very unlikely to reach that mark in its second weekend. I see $50-55 million tops.

Of course it could recapture the spot in its third weekend (its last chance), but I see Ice Age 3 edging it out there slightly and if not, Bruno will likely open to $30+ million as well and edge it out. So, yeah, we're probably looking at the first #1 of the year to spend only one week at #1.

It could be close. I could see both Transformers and Ice Age in the $55-60m range that weekend, especially if Ice Age is frontloaded. July 4th is on Saturday this year, I believe, so people might rush out Wednesday and Thursday. That would also effect Transformers, too, but I see it being close.

You really need to proofread your posts, Lect.

I'm not seeing 55-60 mil for Ice Age 3. It'd reach that level if it opened on a Friday. On its 3rd-5th days, no way

I wouldn't be so sure...

Ice Age 2 may have opened to 70m, but..

1) it opened on a Friday, as opposed to a Wednesday
2) it opened in an empty March, as opposed to a super-crowded July 4th
3) i don't think it was particularly well-liked... its legs were pretty weak for a family film with no competition in '06.

I wouldn't be surprised if its 3-day came it at more like 45-50m, with something like a 75m 5-day... yeah, the teaser's really cute, but between MVA and Up, it's not like we've been low on large-scale animation this year... and yeah, you need to factor in the fact that this opens against a 50m weekend from TF2, whereas the last one faced nothing.

There's also the fact that Transformers 2 isn't a lock for #1 of the year

No other movie is making over $300 mil!

You're delusional

Well Potter may scrape past, but no film will beat Transformers this year.

And Avatar wont do it either. Im sensing a mild dissapointment (against expectations).

Ice Age 1 earned a lot of goodwill to the franchise. But the sequel which wasn't anything too memorable, and I don't feel like there is much anticipation for it. I also think the movie's main gimmick (the dinosaurs) won't mean much with Land of the Lost opening a month before. With Transformers doing perhaps $400 m +, I really feel it will bulldoze over Ice Age 3.

Also, Ice Age is opening on a Wednesday. Over the July 4th 3day weekend, I really think people are going to see Transformers 2, a big action blockbuster over Ice Age. I don't think it will translate that well from March to July. It's a whole other ball game.

I think summer weekdays will save Ice Age but being sandwhiched between Transformers and Potter wont help it. Im in agreeance, I think it will do a NATM2 gross of about $170m. So two weeks at No.1 for TF2 is still in play.

avatar will crush, T2 out grossed in less than two months fo sho.

Eh, I think most of that was just natural frontloading. The first Ice Age also had sub-par legs for an animated family film in 2002 (3.81). It might have to do with the spring release date. But I haven't seen anything to indicate that it wasn't well-received.

Don't bet against god (James Cameron)

Why? I have you do that for me!

I think there is a chance that Transformers 2 is being overpredicted. The
reactions to the trailers for it have been very muted at the showings I've
been at. 400M is not guaranteed. It might not even hit 100M it's 3-day
weekend. But even if it doesn't, it should be close. It's gross over the July
4th weekend will likely be somewhere between 40M - 50M. Right now, I'm predicting
Ice Age 3's gross over the 3-day weekend to be 55M. That's not much of a
cushion if Transformers is on the high end.

Let's not forget about Public Enemies. I may be overpredicting this movie
because part of it was shot here in Wisconsin, and that NEVER happens. It
looks like a more fun version of American Gangster, with a cast that appeals
to a younger demographic much better than Gangster did. It could match or
exceed Gangsters 43M opening, but the competitoin will probably prevent it.
However, it's the dark horse that weekend, and don't underestimate it. I could
certainly see it surprising and taking the weekend.

Now, will Transformers be the #1 movie of the year? Well, the only two movies
I see having a shot at 300M are Harry Potter and Avatar. I'm not going to
predict Avatar until I see footage, hopefully at Ice Age 3D.

As for Harry Potter, I'm pretty sure the audience hasn't decreased in the last
two years. It may not have increased much, but it didn't decrease. The last
movie opened at a similar time and made 292M. So that should put it at around
320M adjusting for inflation, and adding a few IMAX theaters. Even if it
overperforms, I'd cap it at 350M though.

After it's first 5 days, Transformers could have around 170M. Even if it's extremely front-
loaded, it unlikely it will make less than 350M. I'll be rooting for Harry Potter, but it's unlikely
to beat Transformers. So it's up to Avatar... Give us a trailer already Cameron!

And let's not forget that so many people claim that the first TRANSFORMERS had such great WOM, but its first 6 1/2 days (or up to its first Sunday) amounted to 49 % of its total gross...
(That's not too far away of SPIDER-MAN 3's 52 % in its first six days)

And the IMDB score of 7.4, the BOM score of B+ and the Yahoo rating of A- aren't that special either...

I think Transformers' six-day holiday week is different from Spider-Man 3's non-holiday week.

Also, the DVD sales for Transformers was absurd. I know someone will bring up Narnia, but that also had factors against it (like switching its release month completely and stuff), while Transformers II is more or less in the same position the original was in.

Okay - I'll rephrase:

TRANSFORMERS did $163.8m after its first weekend (fueled by summer holiday weekdays)
SPIDER-MAN 3 did $185.4m after its first weekend...

Pointless. By that logic, X2 and HP3 also didn't have great WoM.

I'm damn alarmed at the pessimism on IA3. Didn't we learn the same lesson from Mad2? Perhaps it wasn't well liked as IA given the legs but it was still well liked (6.9 on IMDb/B+ on Yahoo). And CG sequels are pretty much quality proof (both on the sequel itself and the original) at least on opening. As much as I think TF2 will explode at the box-office, I think IA3 also has the potential being huge with both of these and Public Enemies co-existing on a holiday weekend.

Given a Friday opening, IA3 would have been close to 95m+ OW factoring inflation/summer rush/3D. I'm giving it a 105m+ 5-day, and a 3-day well over 65m meaning no #1 for TF2.

I don't think my 55M 3-day prediction for IA3 is pessimistic considering it opens on Wednesday
and has to contend with July 4th falling on Saturday (could drop 25-35% from Friday). It could
do better, but 55M would be fantastic.

I really don't see less than $55 million for Ice Age 3's 3-day weekend. At the same time, I also don't see Transformers 2 making $55+ million in its second frame.

Whether or not Transformers 2 is #1 (let's just assume yes) or IA2 beats it on wk 2 (let's assume yes again), I do find it fairly amazing that every previous #1 of the year on record was #1 at least 2 weeks.

Hollywood is getting better at creating blockbusters in general, and having a harder time finding a date for them in a crowded marketplace. With increasing frontloading and competition there'll come a time when it's amazing if a movie DOES repeat at #1.

In 2008 we had 9 repeaters, so that's still pretty good.
In 2007 we had 11 repeaters
In 2006 we had 10 repeaters
...
The number of repeaters has remained fairly steady, but that's mostly because the ones that DID repeat took more total weekends, so a lot more TOTAL weekends were won by repeaters in the past.

In 1982 we only had 6 repeaters, but that's because On Golden Pond took 6 weeks, Porky's took 8 weeks, and E.T. took 16 weeks. That's well over half the year with just 3 movies.

All told, there were 34 repeat weekends in 1982 vs. 12 last year.

Almost half of which went to Tropic Thunder and The Dark Knight.

Well, The Dark Knight had a special dominance for a modern movie.