Okay, we did cross ittttt

You are a prohpet!

Yeah, I'd say more or less on par with Weathering is a good estimate for Friday. Which is very good because Weathering opened in summer when Fridays are stronger. This strongly suggests Suzume's OW (Sat/Sun) will come in a decent bit higher.

I'll say...

OD: ~¥500 million ($3.5 million) / ~350,000 admissions
OW: ~¥1.3/1.4 billion ($9.1-9.8 million) / ~900,000-975,000 admissions
3-Day: ~¥1.8/1.9 billion ($12.6-13.3 million) / ~1.250-1.325 million admissions

This should also practically guarantee ¥10 billion+. Even if it shows a little frontloading (no holiday support for 6 weeks), a multiplier below 8 is pretty unlikely. Frozen II (similar 3-day to the projected figure above) opened closer to December and got an 8.26x (from OW), which was on the frontloaded side of things.

So, I'd use a similar-ish run as a bare minimum. It really shouldn't have a weaker multiplier than that, and that'd get it a little above ¥11 billion, but it'll most likely do a bit better. Could be another ~¥13/14 billion film to add to the year, which is insane that we could have FOUR films get above that level in 11 months (five films in 12 months if Avatar 2 also gets there next month).

Suzume's Saturday pre-sales (69,557 from ~45% of the market) are down 24% compared to Weathering With You, and not quite up to the level that has guaranteed an OW above ¥1 billion in the past.

I wouldn't say this outright rules it out yet, as it's close, but it could be in an uphill battle to get there. Since the Friday was quite large for this time of year, I wonder if it would miss ¥1 billion or just make it, if there was a bit of a rush factor on Friday due to the giveaway and/or Shinkai's fanbase coming out early.

We'll see. Don't want to sound all doom & gloom here, but I don't see it surpassing Weathering With You's OW with this. Can it get close and/or match it? Maybe, but let's wait and see.

Here is the list of Highest Pre-Sales, by the way. Suzume has 69,557, which keeps it off the chart which I've set at 75,000+. No film has ever opened above ¥1 billion with <75,000 in pre-sales on their 1st Saturday (at least since 2014). But again, it's pretty close, so I won't rule it out.

Highest Single-Day Pre-Sales (2014-) [~45% of Market]

495,308 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *1st Saturday*
404,653 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *2nd Saturday*
329,926 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *OD*
270,796 - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (2021) *OD*
260,329 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014) *OD*
257,536 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *3rd Saturday*
193,468 - One Piece Film Red (2022) *OD*
176,259 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *5th Saturday*
170,054 - Frozen II (2019) *1st Saturday*
164,961 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *4th Saturday*
138,795 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015) *1st Saturday*
135,706 - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (2021) *1st Saturday*
134,713 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *9th Saturday*
134,399 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (2017) *OD*
133,265 - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019) *1st Saturday*
126,032 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017) *1st Saturday*
117,302 - Detective Conan: Crimson Love Letter (2017) *OD*
116,563 - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015) *OD*
115,572 - Detective Conan: The Scarlet Bullet (2021) *1st Saturday*
114,570 - One Piece Film Gold (2016) *OD*
113,434 - Detective Conan: Zero the Enforcer (2018) *1st Saturday*
112,474 - Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (2021) *1st Saturday*
108,780 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *7th Saturday*
106,945 - Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire (2019) *1st Saturday*
106,493 - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020) *11th Saturday*
103,969 - Frozen II (2019) *2nd Saturday*
x94,641 - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (2016) *OD*
x93,216 - Beauty and the Beast (2017) *1st Saturday*
x92,166 - Avengers: Endgame (2019) *1st Saturday*
x91,384 - Weathering With You (2019) *1st Saturday*
x89,555 - One Piece Film Red (2022) *2nd Saturday*
x88,838 - Toy Story 4 (2019) *1st Saturday*
x85,557 - Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (2018) *1st Saturday*
x84,025 - Aladdin (2019) *1st Saturday*
x83,938 - Detective Conan: The Bride of Halloween (2022) *1st Saturday*
x78,000 - Beauty and the Beast (2017) *2nd Saturday*

Note: Presales exclude Aeon Cinemas and some small chains, so they account for ~45% of the market.
Note 2: Presales counted up until ~30min to 1hr before the first showings begin (~07:00-7:30am).

Does this mean One Piece Red is guaranteed to be the highest grossing film of 2022? (Can anyone confirm if Avatar will be counted as 2023 release?)

Most likely. I mean, it's super early and unless the opening falls under ¥1 billion (very unlikely now, as it looks back on track for something around Weathering With You, I believe), the OW wouldn't tell us anything really. We need to see how it does in the weeks to come. The expected multiplier could be anywhere from 8-15 using similar OWs in November.

And Avatar 2 (which will count as a 2023 release, yes) would somehow need to see a sizable increase over the original when sequels/follow ups tend to decline from massive predecessors in the market. (Hard to get the more non-moviegoing crowd to come back again.)

Definitely a surprise to log on to see Suzume performing MUCH better today than pre-sales suggested! This was roughly where it should have been coming off that Friday.

Friday: ~¥500 million ($3.5 million) / ~350,000 admissions
Saturday: ~¥705 million ($5.0 million) / ~495,000 admissions

I know, annoyingly close to 500,000 admissions on Saturday, and it may have very well hit that mark. I want to be just a *tad* conservative though since this is a Toho film and business might skew slightly more toward Toho Cinemas since they went all-in on it.

Sunday will likely decrease, not unusual for most openers, but I also expect it to be a relatively small decline (~10/15%). That'd give it between ¥600-650 million / 425,000-450,000 admissions or so. So, using this as a prediction, we could be looking at:

OW: ~¥1.3-1.4 billion ($9.1-9.8 million) / ~920,000-950,000 admissions
3-Day: ~¥1.8-1.9 billion ($12.6-13.3 million) / ~1.27-1.30 million admissions

This would be roughly a 10-20% increase (revenue) over Weathering With You.

I expect Sun>Sat>Fri

I hope Corpse is extremely wrong with Sun drop!!

Okay! I did win

Should be ¥1.95B at best??

Great opening. Let's see how it legs out I guess.

Any consensus on critic reviews? I only find one 4 out of 5 stars review registered in Rotten Tomatoes

Glad to be wrong about the Sunday decline! Always good to see a Sunday increase. I'll have an updated estimate here later, but pretty sure it exceeded 1 million admissions over the weekend frame (so ~1.3/1.4m over the 3-day).

I am glad about Suzume opening weekend in Japan. I have one question is apparently Slam Dunk is the 7th most popular Manga and it had an anime show and movies and now there a new CG animated one coming out in a few weeks in Japan and just like Dragon Ball and One Piece Toei Animation is involved. As a whole with the manga/anime how does Slam Dunk popularity compare with Dragon Ball and One Piece?

My Updated Suzume Opening Estimates:

Friday: ~¥500 million ($3.5 million) / ~350,000
Saturday: ~¥705 million ($5.0 million) / ~495,000
Sunday: ~¥740 million ($5.2 million) / ~525,000

OW: ~¥1.445 billion ($10.2 million) / ~1,020,000
3-Day: ~¥1.945 billion ($13.7 million) / ~1,370,000

Very huge! This is about ~22% above Shinkai's last film Weathering With You (#14 all-time), which grossed ¥14.19 billion ($131.7 million) on 10.61 million admissions.

It'll be hard to match Weathering's multiplier given the November vs. July release date, but Suzume's higher opening can allow it to be a little less leggy and still approach or exceed it. But worse legs aren't guaranteed. If the reception is stronger, closer to that of Your Name., it could have similar/better legs. Not predicting that, but can't rule it out until we see how it plays in the coming weeks.

-FOUR of the Top 5 Three-Day OWs have occurred from 2020-2022. (This includes the #1 and #2 ALL TIME 3-Days Ever.)
-EIGHT of the Top 10 Three-Day OWs have occurred from 2019-2022.

-SIX of the Top 10 Animated OWs have occurred from 2020-2022. (This includes the #1 and #2 ALL TIME OWs Ever.)
-NINE of the Top 11 Animated OWs have occurred from 2019-2022.

Insane stats. And they've all been animated on the Biggest 3-Day OWs, with the lone exception of the Arashi Anniversary Tour in the #10 spot.

The only Hollywood film among them has been Frozen II. The other eight are all local.

『すずめの戸締まり』はオープニング3日間で動員133万1081人＆興収18億8421万5620円でした。新海監督作品歴代1位のオープニング記録となります

新海誠監督の約3年ぶりとなる新作「すずめの戸締まり」の公開3日間興行成績が発表された。全国420館（IMAX41館含む）で公開され、11月11～13日の3日間では、観客動員数は133万1081人、興行収入は18億8421万5620円となった（11月7日実施のIMAX先行上映分「動員：9033人／興収：1億9433万300円」含む）。

公開初日は全国6大都市11劇場にて0時からスタートした最速上映に加え、夕方には原菜乃華、松村北斗、深津絵里ら豪華キャスト陣と新海監督が登壇して舞台挨拶を行うなど、大きな話題となっていた。3日間の内訳は「11月11日　観客動員：33万9417人、興行収入：4億7883万4600円」「11月12日　観客動員：46万7788人、興行収入：6億6559万9800円」「11月13日　観客動員：51万4843人、興行収入：7億2034万7920円」。

公開3日間では、「君の名は。」（2016年公開／興収250.3億円）対比で観客動員数138.7％、興行収入147.4％、「天気の子」（2019年公開／興収141.9億円）対比で観客動員114.9％、興行収入114.7％を記録しており、新海誠監督作品史上No.1のロケットスタートに。アンケートによると、映画の満足度94.5％と非常に高い数値を示している。また、新海監督作品史上最多となる世界199の国と地域での配給も決定している。

Missed 1M in WKend Frame

A little less than estimated, but still very impressive. Topping Weathering With You's OW was going to be tough as that one was the immediate follow-up to Your Name. and opened in July, so Suzume besting it by 15% is quite impressive.

Here are the numbers for those not wanting to translate:

Friday: ¥478,834,600 ($3.4 million) / 339,417
Saturday: ¥665,599,800 ($4.7 million) / 467,788
Sunday: ¥720,347,920 ($5.1 million) / 514,843

OW: ¥1,385,947,720 ($9.8 million) / 982,631
3-Day: ¥1,884,215,620 ($13.2 million) / 1,331,081

Ranking on the charts above have been corrected.