How's Suzume and Slam Dunk looking for the weekend? If both have good holds and Avatar 2 doesn't show any promising result over and after the weekend, I think theatres might turn over a decent of non-premium seats back to them through the Christmas/New Year season

Yeah, if you guys want to share weekend numbers and stuff, go ahead. I know I've been a little 'stop that, that's my job' in the past, but I really am too busy to sit down for more than a few mins to get it done this week (and maybe next).

They're looking good. Friday was (Slam Dunk -35%, Suzume -25%, versus last week), meaning they'll likely match that or maybe hold better over the weekend frame. They'll probably take some of Avatar 2's bigger non-premium screens over the holidays. Because, as JustLurking mentioned, Avatar 2 is only doing well on the premium screens. Its non-premium sales are God awful. Makes no sense to keep it on the biggest screens when Slam Dunk or Suzume (or Dr. Koto which beat Avatar 2 in admissions today) will perform better on them.

That's something else too... There are a number of options for audiences in Japan right now (and more next week). It's not just Avatar 2. If there are any casuals deciding on something to see... I suspect Avatar 2 (a 3.5 hour sequel to a film they may not have seen) is probably not the #1 choice for some.

So Avatar 2 OD is estimated to be ¥180 Million.

That would be right on mark by me, so I'd be a little proud of myself if that was the case

Pretty rough if it's accurate. ¥300 million would be considered a strong Saturday off of that, IMO, so let's hope it can get there. More realistic... ¥~275 million I'd say.

Do keep in mind, Avatar had a pretty "low" opening weekend too. Then it went on to have many weeks being very stable (small drops, small increases) to reach its impressive finish. Of course, expecting Avatar 2 have a similar run from its OW is quite likely. You'd think it'd have more typical legs for a mid/late December release which is usually between a multiplier of 9-12. BUT... that is if it holds better than every Disney release of the past 3 years as they've been having legs far below the average. Disney films are simply performing worse because they're Disney films.

So lots of questions still, but strong signs it's in for a large decline in Yen/Admissions (probably ~30-50%), and a monster decline in USD (~50-75%).

This is early and things can change later in the day, but according to the mimorin2014 blog apparently on its 2nd day Avatar 2 is #3 behind Dr. Coto Clinic and Slam Dunk at the moment.

Edit: Now Avatar 2 had a huge jump over Slam Dunk and is now #2 behind Dr. Coto and likely to overtake it in admissions.

Four way race for #1! Suzume has caught up. Which ever plays better at night will win the day in admissions. Avatar 2 will take revenue either way, but the fact it's this close, having to compete against films in their third and sixth weekends, is really telling....

Holy s**t I can’t believe it. While Avatar 2 of course will win in gross the fact that both Slam Dunk and Suzume are doing well despite Avatar makes me wow. Avatar will also win the Sat-Sun weekend as a whole in gross but as others have suggested it will probably face cuts in non-premium screens/showtimes in the coming weeks.

In admissions Slam Dunk is ahead at #1 while Avatar 2 is at #2 and Suzume is at #3. But for gross of course Avatar 2 will be #1.

This is quite early but several account I saw on twitter estimated that not only is Avatar 2 is behind Slam Dunk in admissions on its second day but also behind it in gross. Things could change but thats how it seems. It also amazing that both Slam Dunk and Suzume are holding well.

Slam Dunk (third weekend) wins Sat in admissions pretty easily. And it's possible Suzume (sixth weekend) came in second. Meaning Avatar 2 would be third...

In gross, I still give the edge to Avatar 2, but it's possible Slam Dunk beat it there too if Avatar 2 is playing poorly in rural theaters where there are no premium screens . And I think Slam Dunk is the favorite to win the weekend in gross now. It'll have a bigger Sun. bump since it's a holdover. So if it's a little behind/even in gross on Sat, it *should* win Sun. by a fair enough margin to possibly take the weekend. No locked, of course. Think it's like 60:40 in Slam Dunks favor.

We'll see. But yeah, Avatar 2 is a bomb (or super disappointment). The Sat. increase is unimpressive. Second/third place debut in admissions, and it might only debut in second place in revenue too. Even if the atp does come in at like ¥1900 (still think that's a tad high), it's not grossing much above ¥500 million ($3.5-4 million) over the weekend.

Since Slam Dunk is holding well is ¥10 Billion back on the menu for it or still off? I have a feeling maybe Toei does giveaways to reach such goals.

Two news I want to break are that a Spy x Family movie is coming in 2023, so excited. Also Looking at how they are doing today both Suzume and Slam Dunk are ahead in admissions, and also Dr. Coto kinda jumped ahead of Avatar 2. It is subject to change but maybe by the end of the day Sunday both Slam Dunk and Suzume are #1 and #2 in while Avatar is #3 for the box office Sunday admission wise. It seems it may go like this for the Sat-Sun weekend Slam Dunk will dominate in admission def and barely in gross.

Near certain third place debut in admissions it is... Behind a films in their third/sixth weekends.

Likely second place debut in gross. I assume Japan will be the only market it doesn't open at #1. This has happened in the past with other big Hollywood film though.

According to eigarankingnews twitter account it is estimated over the 2-day weekend Avatar 2 made around ¥470 Million.

Edit: That person also thinks its final gross could be around ¥4 Billion. Personally I think it could be more like ¥5 Billion but I will not rule it out.

With Avatar 2 living and dying on the premium formats, is there any soon upcoming movie that might kill it there? With it doing mostly just alright even on there and Japanese theatre chains long grievances against Disney, I won't be surprised if its premium format showings got cut down pretty quickly as well as soon as they have an excuse to

I don't think anything that really needs IMAX screens is coming out for a while off memory. They'll probably allow it to keep enough premiums to stay alive through the holidays, I think, if only because Slam Dunk and Suzume can sell well on any format regardless while taking A2 off them will nuke the film from the market pretty much. Just makes more sense for business, I think, unless they just want to spite Disney or something.

Expect the regular shows to get nuked into oblivion in the coming week, but it doesn't really matter anyway - not like they were selling to begin with...

More of less what I think it grossed over the weekend. ~¥475 million ($3.5 million). Not enough to debut at #1. So, that'd be around ¥650 million ($4.8 million) or so over the 3-day... ¥700 million ($5.1 million) probably best-case if both Friday and the weekend come in higher.

¥4-6 billion ($30-45 million) would be the target for most openers of that level this time of year, so that's the most likely and reasonable range. Can it go higher? Sure, but I don't know why it'd spawn huge legs to do so. The opening disappointed (third place admissions / second place in revenue based on my estimates), so theaters aren't going to prioritize it over the holdovers (Slam Dunk and Suzume) that beat it over the holidays, and next week's openers will hit it too.

And then take into account the general frontloadedness of Disney films in Japan now... Yeah, there's no good reason for it to spawn crazy legs.

¥5 billion ($35 milion) should be the goal... That'd be down 68% versus the original in Yen, and almost 80% in USD (a loss of $135 million...). So, pretty epic bomb. Disney's future in Japan has been heavily questioned the past 3 years (all signs indicate they're losing money), but now it's seriously in doubt. The likelihood of them selling distribution rights have gone way up, IMO. Their 2023 slate is pretty dang awful, too.

Especially when the majority of its Box Office is on premium screens and a movie in Japan can not just survive on the majority of its gross on premium screens to be a huge success just like TGM for example.

Japan loves killing whales so no wonder this bombed (if you've seen it you'll get it)

Basically over the 2 day weekend Avatar had around 259,000 people and grossed ¥477 Million and ranked third in admission while ranking second in gross. Over the three days it had around 354,000 people and grossed ¥646 Million. Yes Japan was like the only market where it did not open number one.

Slam Dunk reached ¥4.189 billion in 16 days.

Biggest December Opening Weekends (1998-):

01. ¥1.629 billion ($14.0 million) / 1,484,916 - Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (2014)
02. ¥1.622 billion ($14.2 million) / 1,135,829 - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (2021)
03. ¥1.550 billion ($12.2 million) / 1,279,120 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
04. ¥1.372 billion ($16.7 million) / 1,140,081 - One Piece Film Z (2012)
05. ¥1.296 billion ($9.6 million) / 846,687 - The First Slam Dunk (2022)
06. ¥1.245 billion ($10.3 million) / 800,258 - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
07. ¥1.126 billion ($9.9 million) / 737,467 - Star Wars: The Last Jedi (2017)
08. ¥1.058 billion ($8.7 million) / 974,557 - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (2015)
09. ¥1.038 billion ($11.9 million) / 819,738 - One Piece Film Strong World (2009)
10. ¥1.037 billion ($9.5 million) / 671,000 - Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2019)
11. ¥902.3 million ($8.4 million) / 622,000 - The Last Samurai (2003)
12. ¥898.0 million ($8.4 million) / 724,000 - Finding Nemo (2003)
13. ¥812.7 million ($7.2 million) / 639,000 - Dragon Ball Super: Broly (2018)
14. ¥751.8 million ($7.3 million) / 604,355 - The Incredibles (2004)
15. ¥653.4 million ($5.7 million) / 413,604 - Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016)
16. ¥649.8 million ($6.4 million) / 539,132 - Lupin III vs. Detective Conan (2013)
17. ¥608.0 million ($5.3 million) / 545,211 - Yo-Kai Watch: Great Adventure of the Flying Whale and the Double Worlds, Nyan! (2016)
18. ¥600.4 million ($5.2 million) / 463,556 - Big Hero 6 (2014)
19. ¥597.3 million ($6.6 million) / 398,795 - Avatar (2009) *Wed. OD*
20. ¥593.0 million ($5.7 million) / 423,000 - New Interpretation Record of the Three Kingdoms (2020)
21. ¥578.3 million ($5.2 million) / 438,771 - I Am Legend (2007)
22. ¥572.8 million ($7.3 million) / 437,750 - Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol (2011)
23. ¥542.3 million ($5.3 million) / 429,918 - The Eternal Zero (2013)
24. ¥528.2 million ($6.4 million) / 412,129 - Space Battleship Yamato (2010)
25. ¥515.3 million ($4.4 million) / 396,280 - The Last: Naruto the Movie (2014)
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.¥477.0 million ($3.5 million) / 259,000 - Avatar: The Way of Water (2022)

Yikes. At least the estimates were nearly dead on...

My take - Japan is even more of a video game culture than America. While the Way of Water looks much better than any other film released in 2022, the top ps5 games of the year are very much on its level. Aloy from Horizon Forbidden West looks as good, if not better, than any of the Na'vi. This was not true back in 2009/2010.

I'm sure there's alot more reasons, but this also explains the disconnect between Way of the Water and American youth.