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 Japan Box-Office: On Hiatus 
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Wall-E

Joined: Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:44 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results!
Hmmmmmm. DS feels like 700-800M OW to me. Not feeling like 1b opener at a glance.


Wed Feb 01, 2023 12:28 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Fastest to 10 Million Admissions
Fastest Films to 10 Million Admissions:

16 Days - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020)
_____
31 Days - Spirited Away (2001)
35 Days - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
38 Days - One Piece Film Red (2022)
39 Days - Your Name. (2016)
40 Days - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
_____
41 Days - Ponyo (2008)
44 Days - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
47 Days - Frozen (2014)
48 Days - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
_____
66 Days - Frozen II (2019)
66 Days - Princess Mononoke (1997)
67 Days - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
71 Days - The Last Samurai (2003)
75 Days - Weathering With You (2019)
84-85 Days - Suzume (2022)
_____
108 Days - Titanic (1997)
157 Days - Avatar (2009)


I have Suzume at ~9.981 million admissions as of Wednesday, Day 83, so it'll either hit 10 million tomorrow (84th day) or certainly on Friday (85th day).

We probably won't get an announcement if it happens just ahead of the weekend, rather most likely in the weekend report, but if anyone does see an announcement by Saturday, please share! :thumbsup:

It's catching up pretty fast to Weathering With You, and will probably sell more admissions (and possibly outgross) than it. Its avg. ticket price is a little lower than Weathering though, so outgrossing it will be a bit harder than surpassing its admissions.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Feb 01, 2023 12:43 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results!
JustLurking wrote:
Hmmmmmm. DS feels like 700-800M OW to me. Not feeling like 1b opener at a glance.


This "movie" is going to be so annoying to talk about. :funny:

I know everyone and their mom is going to compare it to the first (only...) Demon Slayer movie, especially outlets like Crunchyroll, but it's about as unfair of a comparison as you can get, really.

Just to restate to those wondering, since the weekend is here...

There is a new Demon Slayer "movie" opening this weekend, but it's not really a movie. It's a recap special of the final 2 episodes from Season 2 of the anime from a year ago, as well as the first episode of the upcoming Season 3 which debuts proper in April. This "movie" is being given an 8-week theatrical run.

It's pretty common for studios to do this with other anime, release recap specials of past episodes and/or the first episode of a new season in theaters, but they're very limited, usually only playing in select theaters in Tokyo and Osaka. This Demon Slayer version of this is being given the full theatrical treatment, however, premium formats included.

There's no precedent for it, and comparing to the much more limited releases similar to it doesn't work, nor does comparing it to actual feature-length films. It's somewhere in the middle of the two.

¥700/800 million would be an absurd opening for something like this, by the way. On the other hand, they'll probably be people going "that's it?" So... have fun trying to decide how "good" its opening and eventual total is going to be. :funny:

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:23 pm
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results!
So Slam Dunk will hit the ¥10 Billion mark around this weekend b/c of the giveaway it is having that just started.

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Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:46 pm
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Wall-E

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results!
Corpse wrote:
JustLurking wrote:
Hmmmmmm. DS feels like 700-800M OW to me. Not feeling like 1b opener at a glance.


This "movie" is going to be so annoying to talk about. :funny:

I know everyone and their mom is going to compare it to the first (only...) Demon Slayer movie, especially outlets like Crunchyroll, but it's about as unfair of a comparison as you can get, really.

Just to restate to those wondering, since the weekend is here...

There is a new Demon Slayer "movie" opening this weekend, but it's not really a movie. It's a recap special of the final 2 episodes from Season 2 of the anime from a year ago, as well as the first episode of the upcoming Season 3 which debuts proper in April. This "movie" is being given an 8-week theatrical run.

It's pretty common for studios to do this with other anime, release recap specials of past episodes and/or the first episode of a new season in theaters, but they're very limited, usually only playing in select theaters in Tokyo and Osaka. This Demon Slayer version of this is being given the full theatrical treatment, however, premium formats included.

There's no precedent for it, and comparing to the much more limited releases similar to it doesn't work, nor does comparing it to actual feature-length films. It's somewhere in the middle of the two.

¥700/800 million would be an absurd opening for something like this, by the way. On the other hand, they'll probably be people going "that's it?" So... have fun trying to decide how "good" its opening and eventual total is going to be. :funny:

Yeah basically. Peeps will definitely talk about underperformance which will make no sense but can't really stop them. I'm sure a lot of them will have read your post and know it's not really underperformance, but whatever gets the clicks.

The conan recap films are probably the closest thing since they atleast go decently wide, have some new stuff and probably the highest grossing of this kind of films, but even then they will probably be too low to serve as much of a comparison for this one. As has been the case quite often as of late for DS, it will be very much its own thing.

I'm going very much "on the nose" on 700/800, PS looks fine but not really exceptional (but this is in the context of an expected big opener, obviously), but then I have to try to take into consideration that sat/sun have stage greetings which are super strong. Am pretty confident on over 500M, but don't think it has enough appeal for over 1b on this format from what I've seen (unless final day and/or walkups end up really good, but they shouldn't really be with this kind of film).


Wed Feb 01, 2023 2:17 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results!
Chaplainfan wrote:
So Slam Dunk will hit the ¥10 Billion mark around this weekend b/c of the giveaway it is having that just started.


Yes, ¥10 billion should be reached on Sunday, I believe. Day 65. The giveaway began today (Feb. 1st), and gave it the second biggest increase in the top 10.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Feb 01, 2023 4:21 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Fastest to 10 Billion
Here's the Fastest to ¥10 Billion chart.

Fastest Films to ¥10 billion (Uber-Blockbuster Milestone):

10 days - Demon Slayer: Mugen Train (2020)
_____
20 days - One Piece Film Red (2022)
_____
25 days - Spirited Away (2001)
28 days - Your Name. (2016)
28 days - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)
30 days - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (2003)
_____
31 days - Ponyo (2008)
33 days - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)
34 days - Weathering With You (2019)
35 days - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)
37 days - Frozen (2014)
37 days - Alice in Wonderland (2010)
40 days - Frozen II (2019)
_____
41 days - Aladdin (2019)
42 days - Jujutsu Kaisen 0 (2021)
42 days - Beauty and the Beast (2017)
43 days - Princess Mononoke (1997)
44 days - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)
45 days - Suzume (2022)
45 days - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (2015)
47 days - Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace (1999)
50 days - Avatar (2009)
_____
51 days - The Last Samurai (2003)
52 days - Toy Story 3 (2010)
52 days - Finding Nemo (2003)
53 days - The Wind Rises (2013)
53 days - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)
53 days - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)
57 days - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)
65 days - The First Slam Dunk (2022) *Projected*
65 days - Top Gun: Maverick (2022)
74 days - Toy Story 4 (2019)
74 days - Bohemian Rhapsody (2018)
78 days - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
82 days - Titanic (1997)
_____
107 days - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)
132 days - Evangelion 3.0+1.0: Thrice Upon a Time (2021)

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Wed Feb 01, 2023 4:23 pm
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Wall-E

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results!
By the way, 535k on current mimorin would be what, 700-750k on regular usuals? That's crazy wide for what this thing is


Thu Feb 02, 2023 12:47 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results!
Yeah, in that neighborhood.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Thu Feb 02, 2023 11:22 pm
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results!
From Mimorin 14:00 Japan time interim tally for Demon Slayer recap film: 52,724

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Fri Feb 03, 2023 1:16 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results!
Let's say it doubles up from there, which it should be able to do on a Friday since morning/afternoon shows are often the weakest of any day of the week.

So, ~100,000 at the usuals. It should skew in favor of urban locations due to the premium formats, so I'd predict around ~175,000-180,000 nationwide. Using a rough ¥1400 average ticket price, that'll give it around ¥250 million for the day. That's good, still important to note Friday = weekday.

It has stage greetings over the weekend itself, and assuming it still appeals to children/families, it should see a significant bump on Saturday and/or Sunday too.

There's a path to ¥1 billion for the 3-day if it does ~¥350/400 million on both Sat. and Sun., which seems somewhat reasonable if it does ~¥250 million on Friday. Definitely need to see what sort of appeal this is having with casual moviegoers though. If it's primarily appealing to the core fanbase, the Sat./Sun. bumps could be less than expected.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Feb 03, 2023 1:41 am
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Hatchling

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results!
The interest over Twitter seems rather limited so it's probably just attracting the core fan base, not sure how that will translate to the Box Office but I don't see a billion in reach


Fri Feb 03, 2023 2:13 am
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Angels & Demons

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results!
eigarankingnews estimates ¥320 Million on the first day for Demon Slayer recap film.

Quote:
"World Tour Screening ' #鬼滅の刃 ' First Quarter Gathering, and Towards the Swordsmith's Village" debuted at the top of the box office with 320 million yen on the first day!
This is an unusual number for an anime event screening, and the first day's results are by far the best for this year's provisional No. 1 hit start!
Weekend stage greeting LV continues to be full, and its popularity is undiminished! ?
#鬼滅興収速報

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Fri Feb 03, 2023 9:57 am
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Wall-E

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results!
WTF. that's some creative spamming LMAO.


Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:06 am
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Wall-E

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results!
very nice evening shows, should be ~280M fri.

Sat looks strong to me even without the stage meeting shows. sun on the other hand a bit weak without them. But it is the weekend I guess so should pickup some extra walkups I guess, though I wonder how many walkups this kind of thing can really have.

am thinking 280+380-400+280 or so, ~940-960M 3days. Would be fantastic if it hit 1b, though not going to be disappointed even if it falls short of my expectations. Excellent.


Fri Feb 03, 2023 11:10 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results!
george44, I deleted your post. If you're not a BOT, feel free to post here again saying otherwise. And if you do, please don't quote another member, edit what they said, and include a potentially harmful link other members could click on.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Feb 03, 2023 1:45 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results!
JustLurking wrote:
very nice evening shows, should be ~280M fri.

Sat looks strong to me even without the stage meeting shows. sun on the other hand a bit weak without them. But it is the weekend I guess so should pickup some extra walkups I guess, though I wonder how many walkups this kind of thing can really have.

am thinking 280+380-400+280 or so, ~940-960M 3days. Would be fantastic if it hit 1b, though not going to be disappointed even if it falls short of my expectations. Excellent.


¥280 million or so is also what I'm going with. I can see it going up around ¥300 million if it played strongly on IMAX, which does seem to be the case, but I don't like overpredicting.

¥320 million also isn't out of the question, Chaplainfan, though it'd require strong rural sales which I'd lean against having happened.

But we'll see! Whether or not it hits ¥1 billion isn't especially important since, if it misses, it's going to be pretty close. And ¥900 million, while not as fancy as ¥1 billion, is honestly equally as impressive here.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Feb 03, 2023 1:54 pm
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Wall-E

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results!
Rural locs definitely not impressive off the few I checked so I think this definitely skews more mimorin-heavy than usual

and yeah pretty much agreed, 900M OW with a "film" that is half 1 year old episodes and half episodes that will air for free on tv and go on streaming in 2 months is quite a flex of the strength of its fanbase


Fri Feb 03, 2023 2:02 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box Office: Biggest February Opening Weekends
Biggest February Opening Weekends (1998-):

01. ¥1.543 billion ($14.7 million) / 1,138,210 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)
02. ¥1.130 billion ($9.6 million) / 803,000 - The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (2003)
03. ¥870.0 million ($6.5 million) / 630,000 - Ocean's Eleven (2002)
04. ¥572.1 million ($5.3 million) / 442,000 - L: Change the World (2008)
05. ¥496.0 million ($4.2 million) / 330,223 - The Martian (2016)
06. ¥456.5 million ($5.6 million) / 312,850 - The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader (2011)
07. ¥428.0 million ($3.6 million) / 283,000 - Red Dragon (2003)
08. ¥425.7 million ($3.8 million) / 308,376 - Sword Art Online: Ordinal Scale (2017)
09. ¥415.8 million ($3.7 million) / 289,979 - La La Land (2017)
10. ¥402.4 million ($4.3 million) / 318,154 - A Good Day to Die Hard (2013)
11. ¥401.7 million ($3.5 million) / 316,539 - Partners: The Movie IV (2017)
12. ¥390.7 million ($3.7 million) / 267,619 - The Greatest Showman (2018)
13. ¥389.0 million ($3.4 million) / 290,000 - Glory of Team Batista (2008)
14. ¥334.4 million ($3.0 million) / 260,000 - The Seven Conferences (2019)
15. ¥332.3 million ($2.8 million) / 249,321 - American Sniper (2015)
16. ¥324.6 million ($3.1 million) / 240,894 - The Bourne Supremacy (2005)
17. ¥315.2 million ($3.5 million) / 236,004 - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2009)
18. ¥314.3 million ($2.8 million) / 210,000 - Aquaman (2019)
19. ¥303.7 million ($3.3 million) / 244,385 - Percy Jackson & the Olympians: The Lightning Thief (2010)


February is one of the weakest months of the year (only ahead of October and June on average), so not many notable films open in the month. Only four films have ever opened above ¥500 million in the month, of which, the last being way back in 2008!

Looks like Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - To the Swordsmith Village will likely take the #3 spot, being the first "film" to crack the Top 3 OWs of February in nearly 20 years.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Fri Feb 03, 2023 4:22 pm
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results! (Pg. 899)
As a result of losing its premium screens to Demon Slayer thing Avatar 2 is having a big drop in gross on Friday around 60 to 70% and will be behind NWH.

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Fri Feb 03, 2023 9:48 pm
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Wall-E

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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results! (Pg. 899)
Seems right on my range on sat, very nice. If sunday holds better than I think and/or atp comes higher 1b OW is possible, but thinking it will fall just short. Either way, quite incredible. Going to give aniplex their 2nd best OW ever on a film that isn't even a film lol.


Sat Feb 04, 2023 8:31 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results! (Pg. 899)
Since the that episode in appearing in two months and this will be an 8 week run it will be frontloaded I guess.

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Sat Feb 04, 2023 9:41 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results! (Pg. 899)
Probably.

This opening is showing that a lot of the fanbase is still here. It's not going to be possible to get anywhere near the audience the franchise / first film had back in 2020/2021, that broke all precedent for a brand and film, but it can obviously still thrive by relying on its core fanbase.

Legs, I think, will help determine what sort of casual appeal is still there. The series became so huge due to casual appeal in the first place, all the little kids and great grandparents who jumped on board, not the fanbase itself. If it's really frontloaded, and finishes... let's say with ¥3-4 billion, it could be a sign that casual appeal has dropped off considerably. The loss of casual appeal, the typical non-moviegoers, is the reason follow-ups to former phenomenon franchises (or films) see their declines in the market. The 8-week window complicates this idea, since that will just naturally add some frontloading regardless, but if it can buck that a bit, it'll be a healthy sign for future releases.

Still would have preferred they prepared a proper film for this year versus the recap special here. 2025 is probably the earliest we'll get a film, which feels a bit risky. Japan is a market where you want to strike while the iron is hot, and while I still think it is, waiting too long risks losing some of that.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:38 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results! (Pg. 899)
From FranSpeech twitter for Feb 4:

Japan BO
Feb. 4

1 #DemonSlayerWorldTour $3.2M $5.55M
2 #BTSYetToCome $1.4M/$4.8M
3 #THELEGENDandBUTTERFLY $900K / $7.8M
4 #THEFIRSTSLAMDUNK                 $850K /$73.9M
5 #Suzume $400K/$97.5M
9 #RRR $160k/$6.3M
10 #AvatarTheWayOfTheWater $130k/$30.63M

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Sat Feb 04, 2023 10:47 am
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Post Re: Japan Box-Office: 2022 Yearly Results! (Pg. 899)
All look reasonable except for BTS. Does it have really high ticket prices like the Arashi or similar movies? By that, I mean ¥2500/3000 (or higher)?

If it has regular ticket prices, or only a little higher, then it probably ranks behind both Legend & Butterfly and The First Slam Dunk since those two are playing in ~82% more theaters nationwide.

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Japan Box Office

“Gods are great ... but the heart is greater. For it is from our hearts they come, and to our hearts they shall return.”
“We were like gods at the dawning of the world, & our joy was so bright we could see nothing else but the other.”
“There are three things all wise men fear: the sea in storm, a night with no moon, and the anger of a gentle man.”
“You have to pretend you get an endgame. You have to carry on like you will; otherwise, you can't carry on at all.”
"Paper is dead without words / Ink idle without a poem / All the world dead without stories."


Sat Feb 04, 2023 1:53 pm
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